Monday, December 22, 2014

"Roubini’s Unsettling Scenarios: Five Faces of Doom"

We continue to believe it's a bull market for the larger universe of equities but saw enough gloating, from folks who should know better, at the most recent downturn and v-shaped recovery* that we're starting to believe we may be beyond complacency and are approaching hubris. We will be dancing a bit closer to the fire door even as the band plays on.
From Barron's:

Nouriel Roubini, the economist who foresaw the housing bubble, has published a report highlighting potential economic dangers for 2015.
Dr. Gloom: The economist who foresaw the housing bubble is focusing on economic dangers for 2015. Illustration: William Waitzman for Barron's
Dr. Doom is at it again. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who foresaw the housing bubble that triggered the financial crisis, has published a special report highlighting what he sees as the five serious economic dangers for 2015 and beyond.

The report comes amid the launch of a Website, called Roubini’s Edge, that offers a free economic newsletter. Although Roubini worries about the eventual risk of asset and credit bubbles in another few years, at the moment, he says, “There’s lots of geopolitical risk of contagion that is more economic rather than financial.”
According to Roubini, Europe is facing the prospect of a triple-dip recession, with anti-euro sentiments rumbling through Greece, Italy, Spain, and even Germany. Because of the euro zone’s size, such a development would be more damaging than Japan’s lost decade....MORE
*5.1% in seven trading days. Jason Zweig at the WSJ called it the Petro Panic.