Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Goldman Sure Is Talking A Lot: "Livestock futures to underperform crops - Goldman"

A noticeable uptick in their markets chatter, particularly on commodities.
Possibly related to their last-man-standing strategy: "We're not like those other banks that cut and run". They probably found a prop-trading loophole.Or maybe some retail swaps.
Oh joy.
From Agrimoney:

Goldman Sachs lifted its forecast for cattle futures, but raised doubts over further rises in livestock prices, foreseeing them underperforming crop markets over the next year.
The bank lifted by 17 cents a pound to 150 cents a pound its forecast for spot Chicago live cattle futures on a three-month horizon, raising expectations for price further ahead too.
"The seasonal increase in fed cattle [supplies] has, so far, been much weaker than normal despite larger feedlot placements earlier in the year," Goldman said.
While the larger spring entry of cattle for fattening on feedlots implies a recovery ahead in supplies of animals ready for slaughter, "this rise in fed cattle will be short lived".
US Department of Agriculture data on Friday showed placements on feedlots last month falling 6.2% to 1.46m head, with lighter animals, taking longer to fatten, making up a high proportion of the intake.
And with a separate USDA report showing the US calf crop "at the lowest since 1948, "this points to a longer herd rebuilding process than previously expected and supplies remaining tight into 2016", Goldman said.
Crops vs livestock
Nonetheless, its forecasts for cattle prices remain below the futures curve - with Chicago's October contract trading at 159.225 cents a pound on Tuesday, and further ahead lots remaining above Goldman expectations too....MORE