We've been blowing this horn for a while*:
From Bloomberg via Futures Mag:Monday, July 8, 2013
Jim Rogers Says Gold to $900For what it's worth our best guess is the 1980 Hong Kong top tick, $875 after a run to $1360 and Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture says $1400-1440 then $600-800.
Front futures $1229.70 up $17.00...MORE
Gold falls to 4-week low
Gold (COMEX:GCJ14) futures fell to a four-week low after the outlook for higher U.S. interest rates damped demand for the precious metal as a store of value. Palladium (NYMEX:PAM14) rose to a 31-month high on supply concerns.*Oct. 8, 2013
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on March 19 that that the central bank’s benchmark rate may rise about six months after monetary stimulus ends, expected later this year. Policy makers announced the third $10 billion cut in monthly bond purchases, and gold last week dropped 3.1 percent, the most since November.
“People don’t want gold in a rising interest-rate environment,” David Meger, the director of metal trading at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “While concerns about Crimea remain, there has been no escalation in violence for people to jump back into the safe- haven asset.”
Gold futures for June delivery fell 1.4 percent to $1,317.80 an ounce at 10:29 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $1,314.60, the lowest for a most- active contract since Feb. 20. Trading was 42 percent above the average for the past 100 days for this time, data compiled by Bloomberg showed....MORE
Goldman Sachs Says Gold is a "Slam Dunk" SellAfter flirting with $1390 on March 14th we've had rumors of war that couldn't lift the price, not a good sign for bullishness.
Of course that follows on this rather confusing set of calls last month:
"Gold Prices To Decline Into 2014 - Goldman Sachs"
"Goldman Flip-Flops: Sees Near-Term Upside In Gold"
Getting In Front of the Curve: Goldman Says Dishwashers Are the Future (1169; WHR; GE)...
...$1323.70 down $1.40 last.
We've been thinking the top of the last big bull as a target ($875) since about three weeks after Alphaville's Izabella Kaminska posted "Capping the gold price" in December 2012.
In January of this year I had one of those "Saaaayyyy, she's onto something" moments and posted "Spot Gold Down $21.80 as HSBC, Credit Suisse Lower Forecasts (GLD)" at $1680, $35 or so bucks lower than Izzy's post. Since then we have been decidedly ursine in our pronouncements with the occasional tactical rainbows and unicorns bit of bullishness, which by the way have been spookily timely, scary because we should be early, that's the way things are set up but no, some of the calls have been within 12-15 hours of intermediate and short term turns.
All I can counsel is keep your stops tight.
I have not inquired what Izabella's stance is on the dishwasher question.
Here's the last month's action via FinViz: