Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Goldman Sachs Says Gold is a "Slam Dunk" Sell

Of course that follows on this rather confusing set of calls last month:

"Gold Prices To Decline Into 2014 - Goldman Sachs"
"Goldman Flip-Flops: Sees Near-Term Upside In Gold"
Getting In Front of the Curve: Goldman Says Dishwashers Are the Future (1169; WHR; GE)

From Bloomberg:
Goldman’s Currie Says Gold Is ‘Slam Dunk’ Sell After Shutdown
Gold, set for its first annual loss in 13 years, is a “slam dunk” sell for next year because the U.S. economy will extend its recovery after lawmakers resolve stalemates over the nation’s budget and debt ceiling, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie said.

The bank has a target for gold prices next year at $1,050 an ounce, Currie, Goldman Sachs’s head of commodities research, said today on a panel in London. The precious metal has tumbled 21 percent this year to $1,322.28 an ounce on speculation that the Federal Reserve would reduce its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, as the economy recovers. Lawmakers probably will reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling before the Oct. 17 deadline, Currie said.

“Once we get past this stalemate in Washington, precious metals are a slam dunk sell at that point,” Currie said. “You have to argue that with significant recovery in the U.S., tapering of QE should put downward pressure on gold prices.”...MORE
$1323.70 down $1.40 last.

We've been thinking the top of the last big bull as a target ($875) since about three weeks after Alphaville's Izabella Kaminska posted "Capping the gold price" in December 2012.

In January of this year I had one of those "Saaaayyyy, she's onto something" moments and posted "Spot Gold Down $21.80 as HSBC, Credit Suisse Lower Forecasts (GLD)" at $1680, $35 or so bucks lower than Izzy's post. Since then we have been decidedly ursine in our pronouncements with the occasional tactical rainbows and unicorns bit of bullishness, which by the way have been spookily timely, scary because we should be early, that's the way things are set up but no, some of the calls have been within 12-15 hours of intermediate and short term turns.

All I can counsel is keep your stops tight.

I have not inquired what Izabella's stance is on the dishwasher question.