Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Oil: Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy- "...Brent crude to drop to USD 80/barrel" (and Germany in Recession)

This is part of Saxo's headline grabbing 10 Outrageous Predictions, more to follow.
The performance of the 2013 list was horrible with only two of ten working out.
Remember though, these are meant to be outrageous.

From Ole S. Hansen's Trading Floor blog:
Brent crude drops to USD 80/barrel as producers fail to respond
Global oil markets are going through a period of transition, in which rising production from non-conventional methods (especially in the US and Canada) and an increase in Saudi Arabian production have helped to ensure stable prices despite numerous disruptions. Brent crude oil has therefore averaged about USD 110/barrel over the past three years with the consensus forecast for 2014 pointing towards an average price of USD 105/barrel.
With non-Opec supply expected to rise by more than 1.5 million barrels per day and the potential for another two million arising as disruptions in Libya and sanctions against Iran ease, the global market will become awash with oil. Producers will have to make a concerted effort to cut output. Hedge funds will react to the altered dynamics by building a major short position in the market for the first time in years. This will help to drive Brent crude oil down to USD 80/barrel, especially as almost all producers, which are in desperate need of high oil prices, will only react slowly. Russia and most Opec producers will delay to balance their budgets, while the US will drag its feet because of the need for high prices to ensure the economic viability of shale oil.
Once producers finally get around to reducing production, oil will respond with a strong bounce and the industry will conclude that high prices are not a foregone conclusion....MORE