Wednesday, September 25, 2013

"Fed spur to ag prices underplayed - Morgan Stanley"

I'm not sure MS is accounting for the diminishing returns to QE or the anti-QE effects of the FRFARRP.
It is difficult to argue that anything short of a crop failure would move this year's crop prices.
From Agrimoney:
Investors may be underestimating the boost to commodities from the Federal Reserve's decision to delay withdrawal of emergency economic support, Morgan Stanley said, restating corn as it most bullish bet in the complex.
Commodities, while joining the rally last Wednesday after the Fed revealed the delay to the "tapering" of US bond market purchases of $85bn a month, have "underperformed most asset classes" since, Morgan Stanley noted.
The CRB commodities index stood on Monday at 286.6 points, among its lowest levels in a month.
However, that ignores the long-term effects of the Fed's move, which "may be underappreciated", the investment bank said.
"In our view, tapering of asset purchases is a positive for all risky assets – including commodities."
Currency factor
The boosts from the Fed delay included, besides the direct boost in terms of lower borrowing costs, a potential increase in inflation expectations, which is often supportive of prices of tangible assets such as commodities, and a "derisking of the bear case" on emerging markets....MORE
They and Macquarie do mention the non-taper's effect on the US dollar but that sure looks as though it were priced-in-and-then-some with that gap down on the 18th.Just for reference the UD Dollar index near futures:
DXZ13 (Dec '13)  80.525 -0.165