Sunday, September 22, 2013

Credit Suisse Initiates On 3D Printer Co's: "3D printing will change the world"

It's about time.
Here's one of the class acts of the serious-metalworking-side of the technology, Arcam:
Chart forArcam AB (AMAVF)

We first mentioned the company in September 2012. The stock was at $10.28 and traded by appointment only. It closed Friday at $113.26
From Business Insider:
CREDIT SUISSE: 3D Printing Is Going To Be Way Bigger Than What The 3D Printing Companies Are Saying
Three-dimensional printing was recently named by Goldman Sachs as one of eight technologies that are going to creatively destroy how we do business.

In a new note, a Credit Suisse team led by Julian Mitchell dives into the sector, coming up with some projected growth figures and pinpointing which markets will be doing most of the driving.
"Most corporate guidance defaults to the assumptions of industry consultants who estimate that the 3D printing market will grow at ~20% annually. We challenge this assumption and attempt to quantify the addressable market by investigating the opportunities within key verticals such as aerospace, automotive, health care, and consumer. We conclude that these four markets alone (which comprise ~ 50% of the AM market today) represent sufficient opportunity to sustain 20-30% annual revenue growth, bolstered by the technology’s transition from prototyping to end use parts and expansion into metals." 
Here's the chart:
cs 3d 2
Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse's massive 180-page report goes into painstaking detail into how 3D printing will change the world. But here are some highlights:
Health care is already knee-deep in 3D printing. Mitchell and co. say more than 90% of all hearing-aid shells today are produced through the process. 

As it turns out, dental applications probably contain the most potential within health care, thanks to the more than 14,000 dental labs in the U.S. The C.S. team envisions market penetration to improve to 18% from 12% in the sector by 2016. 

Personalized hip and knee replacements could also see gains. The team projects a market of up to $1.8 billion, though they note that the niche has yet to totally catch fire. 

And GE has been producing a previously expensive part of ultrasound machines can be printed on 3D machines (they can also use it to make wind and gas turbine parts). 

“It’s really fundamentally changing the way we think about the company,” Mitchell and co. quote Mark Little, GE’s chief technology officer, as saying. 

Projections for 3D printing's expansion into aerospace match those in health care — the team sees a 30% compound annual growth rate for each. Airplane engines will lead the way...MORE
CS sounds like a religious convert or a reformed smoker.
They go on to say that the most rapid expansion will come from personal use but the folks who are serious about making money have moved far beyond that technology and are working on bioprinting. CS can keep the at-home stuff, I wish 'em all the best.
I've mentioned that I first passed on Stratasys in the '90's at a couple bucks, it closed at $99.49 on Friday.
These are wonderful businesses but for now they have a lot of work to do to grow into their stock prices.
We have quite a few posts on the industry and the companies, here's the Google search of the blog:
The list of posts is pretty eclectic, for example:
 UPDATED-- Dita Von Teese Models 'World First' Articulated 3D Printed Dress Based On Fibonacci Sequence
From HuffPo UK:

Dita Von Teese has unveiled the world's first fully articulated dress produced with a 3D printer.
The gown was designed by Michael Schmidt and Francis Bitonti and revealed at the the Ace Hotel in New York.

Created with the help of Shapeways, a company which lets designers sell objects which are printed on demand with industrial-scale 3D printers, the dress is based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers.
Shapeways said:

"The gown was assembled from 17 pieces, dyed black, lacquered and adorned with over 13,000 Swarovski crystals to create a sensual flowing form."...MORE
DVICE is reporting:
Contrary to other reports, this 3D-printed dress is not the first of its kind. (Freedom of Creation made one back in 2006.) However, it is the first one to be designed on an iPad and sport over 13,000 Swarovski crystals.* It's also specifically made for Burlesque dancer Dita Von Teese, meaning it won't fit your body no matter how hard you try to squeeze into it....MORE
I'm betting it is the first 3D printed dress based on the Fibonacci sequence.
There is a very large opportunity for a smart engineer (or dress designer) to take on the standalone players, as I said in a prior Arcam post:
This is the kind of thing a guy wishes he had taken private.