Monday, July 30, 2012

Natural Gas Hurricane Watch: Invest area 99L forms in tropical Atlantic as conditions become more favorable

Probably no development from this invest but they should start coming every 4-5 days as the dust from the Saharan Air Layer diminishes.
From Hurricane Track:
The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure well to the south and west of the Cape Verde Islands for possible development. It appears that conditions across the region are becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. The dry, dusty air seen in recent weeks has significantly decreased and water temps are just warm enough to support development.

Looking at some of the parameters typically associated with tropical cyclone formation, we see that vertical wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is right where it should be for this time of year. In other words, shear is not a factor. It is running at about the climatological average. This should allow for a steady growth in deep tropical thunderstorms or convection. In turn, this will allow the pressures to continue to fall as the fairly large envelope of energy gradually consolidates as it moves westward....MORE
This is what I was thinking about in last week's "What Could Break the Drought? A Hurricane Would Be Nice (88% of Corn Areas in Drought)":
...Ike was one of those long-haul storms that come off the coast of Africa and there's still too much dust and sand for any development for the next few weeks. Better odds on a Gulf of Mexico formation but still, long odds.