From Hurricane Track:
The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure well to the south and west of the Cape Verde Islands for possible development. It appears that conditions across the region are becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. The dry, dusty air seen in recent weeks has significantly decreased and water temps are just warm enough to support development.This is what I was thinking about in last week's "What Could Break the Drought? A Hurricane Would Be Nice (88% of Corn Areas in Drought)":
Looking at some of the parameters typically associated with tropical cyclone formation, we see that vertical wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is right where it should be for this time of year. In other words, shear is not a factor. It is running at about the climatological average. This should allow for a steady growth in deep tropical thunderstorms or convection. In turn, this will allow the pressures to continue to fall as the fairly large envelope of energy gradually consolidates as it moves westward....MORE
...Ike was one of those long-haul storms that come off the coast of Africa and there's still too much dust and sand for any development for the next few weeks. Better odds on a Gulf of Mexico formation but still, long odds.
