Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Molycorp Reports, Disappoints. Collapses (MCP)

 As foretold by the prophecy.*
[oh brother -ed]

MCP closed down $5.13 in regular trade and declined a further $3.80 to $62.67 in after-hours action.
I thought I saw a $62.50 print but can't pull it up.
From RTT:
Molycorp Loss Narrows, Misses Estimate; Stock Down 
Molycorp Inc. (MCP: News ), said Tuesday its first-quarter loss narrowed from a year earlier, as better prices and increased sales of rare earth oxides lifted revenues. Nevertheless, adjusted earnings and revenues fell short of Street estimates, dragging down Molycorp shares by over 5 percent in extended trade....MORE
From Reuters:
Molycorp narrows loss as rare earth prices soar
Loss per share $0.03 vs Street view EPS $0.10
* Revenue up more than seven-fold to $26.3 million
* Shares slide in aftermarket trade (Adds CEO comments, details; in U.S. dollars)
TORONTO, May 10 (Reuters) - Shares of Molycorp (MCP.N: Quote) fell more than 5 percent in aftermarket trading on Tuesday, after the company narrowed its quarterly loss on soaring rare earth oxide prices, but missed analyst expectations....MORE

Apr. 4
Rare Earth: Molycorp Shares Hit an All-Time High on European Acquisition (MCP)
The stock is up 10.45% at $65.44. The prior high was achieved the day after we decided to short the stock (and picked up a triple). We are not looking to repeat that performance just yet....
Apr. 11
Rare Earths: JP Morgan Raises Molycorp Price Target 2nd Time in Two Weeks, Stock Up Another 6% (MCP)
The stock set another all-time high this morning, $72.74 and is currently up 6.27% at $71.40.
I was asked over the weekend when the stock tops. It's close but my best guess is a double top rather than this spike before anything greater than a 15% decline.
Keep your stops loose and your sphincters (both ends) tight....
Apr. 21
Chartology: After Molycorp's Recent Weakness Where is the Stock Going? (MCP)
Well, that big gap up on the chart would be a logical goal before the stock resumes its uptrend.
The stock closed at $71.47 today and is looking a bit weaker than the last time it was in this vicinity.
Here's Alpha Global Investors, we'll be back after the jump...

...Since then the stock traded as low as $67.81 (the next day) and proceeded to set all-time closing highs on the 14th, 15th and 16th with the $76.22 print on the 16th being the all time high.

Yesterday's action, down 3.37% on an otherwise broadly up day is cause for concern.
The $60-62.50 range is still a fair target, a little backing and filling before a convincing set of new highs.
Apr. 27
Hype'n Tout: Morgan Stanley's $240 Molycorp Call (MCP)
Is it just me or does this research note read like a 1999 internet chat room pump and dump?
[it's not just you, the stock is only up two bucks -ed]
May 3
Chart du Jour: As Rare Earth Stocks Dominate, Even I Think this is Getting Silly (AVL; MCP; REE)
Hey, I'm as irrational as the next guy but come on. Molycorp just passed a $6 billion market cap on a 7 8% up-move....
May 5
"Molycorp Ready to Buy Other Rare Earth Miners: CEO" (MCP)
After a bit of a reality check yesterday, down 7.13% at $72.01 the stock is down another 2% at $70.60 in early premarket trade.
I said in "Chartology: After Molycorp's Recent Weakness Where is the Stock Going? (MCP)" that the $60-62.50 range was a reasonable target but in the two weeks since that post the stock is almost exactly unchanged.
Not that there hasn't been some action in the interim.
Here's the chart...
May 9
UPDATED: Hoarding Rare Earths is a Sign of China's Weakness (MCP; REE; AVL)
...I don't know how this helps the trader/investor, I do know we're still looking for Molycorp to trade down to between $60 and $62.50 before we get another series of all-time highs.
January 18, 2011

That was our post after the last time we did this. Sometimes you get lucky. Originally posted at 7:09pm PDT.
We'll be back with more