Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Take That Albert Edwards: "The Bear Market Bottom Will Be S&P 400"--Russell Napier

Back in late August 2010 the headlines were:
S&P to hit 450 with U.S. worse than 'lost' Japan: strategist
Albert Edwards: Bear market could take S&P down to 450
That forecast was more dire than the (obviously early) Nov. 2009 call by Bob Janjuah, then at RBS, now scaring the kids at Nomura:
"Eat your heart out Albert Edwards": Royal Bank of Scotland Calls for 550 S&P (and: "South Sea Bubble Redux")
Which brings us to our latest "Do the Limbo" (how low can you go) entrant.
From the Financial Times via ZeroHedge:
It is no secret that CLSA's Russell Napier has not been a fan of QE2. As he pointed out in his recent prominent note, "whether equities will fall further depends on how flexible and successful the Fed’s next monetary package will be. Given the risk, investors are better off watching from the sidelines." He further explained: "A risk to reflation would send equities sharply lower. The failure of QEII will undermine investor faith in a monetary solution. With equities near bubble valuations, based on cyclically adjusted PE, a failure to reflate risks major downside.  

The Fed will try again with a new package, but investors would do best by waiting to see how it plays out." Since as of now we still don't know when and if there even will be a package, here is Napier once again, interviewed by the FT's Long View, presenting his updated views on the economy. His outlook, which we agree with entirely, is that first we will see another major deflationary shock, following which the Fed, already boxed in a corner, will have two choices: let major financial institutions fail, or proceed to monetize outright. Regardless of which outcome is picked, Napier's target for the S&P, which just happens to coincide with that of Albert Edwards, is not pleasant for the bulls: 400 (or somewhere in that vicinity). And that will be the true generational buying bottom....VIDEO, comments
As best as I can remember, Robert Prechter is still on top of the leader-board.
His June 2010 call for a sub-1000 DJIA equates to 106 or less on the S&P.

Posting this should pretty much guarantee an up day Wednesday.

Albert's reaction to being bested (worsted?):