Sunday, April 26, 2009

Trade the Flu! (Headlines at 12:05 a.m. EDT April 27, 2009)

This may be the sickest thing we've posted [other than profiteering from fear of global warming? -ed].
From Reuters:

Drug and vaccine makers on standby over swine flu

...Roche Holding AG's Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, and GlaxoSmithKline Plc's Relenza, or zanamivir, are both recommended drugs for seasonal flu and have been shown to work against viral samples of the new disease....
...Making a vaccine against a new strain of flu takes months and vaccine companies said they were on standby to start the development process as soon as possible.

Leading flu vaccine manufacturers include Sanofi Pasteur, the vaccines division of Sanofi-Aventis SA, Glaxo, Novartis AG and Baxter International Inc....

And: Finance chiefs, markets keep wary eye on swine flu

From Bloomberg:

Mexico Peso Falls on Concern Swine Flu to Deepen Economic Slump

Russia Suspends Mexican, Some U.S. Meat Imports on Swine Flu

Australia, NZ Dollars Drop on Swine Flu, Recession Concerns

From the Washington Post:

Oil falls over 2 percent on flu fears

From Wang's Happy Trading:

Pandemic Plays

In the short term, we can be sure that travel will decrease. This means SELL the stock of airline companies. DAL, CAL, etc.

...Also, parts of the world with severe outbreaks will lose their tourism economy. Right now, Mexico is the center of the flu outbreak. The ETF for Mexico is EWW. We can expect EWW to decline relative to other regional ETF’s....

...Companies making influenza vaccines and antiviral agents will see buying interest. The Chinese biotech company SVA looks especially attractive as a pandemic play. Plays on antivirals are GSK and RHHBY. Good luck, and stay well....

From CNBC:

Asian Pharmas Rally on Flu Worries, Airlines Sink
From ClusterStock:

How To Trade The Swine Flu Pandemic

...Basically: go long face masks and short related developing countries.

In terms of buying opportunities, Helmsman’s Parry was advising his clients Monday morning in Asia to “break out the old SARS list of names that make face masks” for some short-term momentum, such as Japanese Hogy Medical (TYO:3593).

But the most likely securities to feel selling pressure are the emerging market ETFs. During the SARS crisis, U.S.-listed ETFs such as iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO), and Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic fund (EDD) were not yet thought up. Swine flu may pose the first serious challenge to these recently listed ETFs’ growth prospects....

And From Business Insider:
Swine Flu Stocks (BCRX, GILD, NVAX, NNVC, SVA)

From Bronte Capital:

Biota - a wild speculation
Biota is an Australian listed company. It has a share in a drug that cures influenza and almost certainly works on swine flu. The stock went about 60% today.

The drug (Relenza) is a true wonder except that it has several features that make it very difficult to market....
From: Midas Oracle:

Swine Flu Prediction Markets

will there be confirmed cases of swine flu on every continent by july 1?
From BioHealth Investor:
Swine Flu Treatment Stockpiles Released by CDC/DHS (RHHBY, GSK)