They note, almost as a throwaway line, that coffee and cocoa have historically been affected when in fact that is where the action has been.
From Investing.com via Hellenic Shipping News, August 26:
Citi raised its price targets for corn, soybeans, and wheat on Tuesday, citing a strengthening Super El Niño as its highest-conviction agricultural risk heading into late 2026 and early 2027.
NOAA now assigns a greater than 90% probability of a very strong event and a 69% probability that the event exceeds the strength of all El Niño episodes since 1950 during October-December, according to the agency’s August 2026 update.
The bank raised its 3-month corn price target to $5.40 per bushel and its 12-month target to $5.90 per bushel. Citi raised its 3-month soybean price forecast to $12.75 per bushel as the previous target was reached, while the 12-month target is $13.25 per bushel. The bank also revised up its 3-month wheat forecast to $7.25 per bushel and 12-month target of $7.75 per bushel.
Citi said current market pricing appears to reflect only a portion of the potential downside risks to global agricultural production based on its new Production-at-Risk framework. The largest weather-exposed commodities remain palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa, and Australian wheat, while risks are concentrated geographically across Australia, India, Southeast Asia, and parts of Brazil....
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