"India forecasts monsoon rains at 11-year low in 2026, fanning inflation risk" (90% of average forecast)

From Reuters, May 29:

• El Nino seen developing soon, likely to weaken monsoon rains
• June-September rainfall seen at 90% of a long-period average
• Lower rainfall could cut farm output, boost food inflation

India ​forecast an El Nino-weakened monsoon in 2026 that will bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years, fuelling concerns ‌over crops, food prices and growth in the world's fifth-largest economy, battling inflationary pressures from the Iran war.
The monsoon delivers about 70% of annual rains to replenish crucial water sources in a nearly $4-trillion economy where nearly half of farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population earns its livelihood ​from farming. 

Prospects of weak rainfall and distribution add to inflation risks and weigh on growth, said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist ​at IDFC First Bank. 

"A deficient monsoon, particularly in the crucial July-August months, can add to the ⁠pressure and push up inflation closer to an average of 5.5% if food inflation spikes," Sengupta said.

That compares with India’s retail ​inflation of 3.48% in April, driven by higher food prices, though the outlook is clouded by energy costs linked to the Middle East ​conflict. 

This year's monsoon is seen at 90% of a long-period average, below an April forecast of 92%, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the earth sciences ministry, told a press conference earlier on Friday. 

That would make it the weakest since 2015, when the El Nino weather phenomenon reduced rainfall to 87%....

 

 

....MUCH MORE 

 Recently:

May 15 - Agriculture: "Monsoon rains to hit southern Indian coast early, spurring crop planting"

It is hard/impossible to overstate just how important* the monsoon is....

And as noted exiting May 2025's "Can India use AI to predict extreme weather events?":

....On a much more serious note, the December 2000 book  Late Victorian holocausts : El Niño famines and the making of the third world examines how the crop failures combined with British administrative mismanagement resulted in the deaths of some 60 million people.

The fact is that since the 1866 -1869 famines in Sweden and Finland famine is a political decision or lack of decision. The technology exists to move food to where it is needed.

Actually, in many respects the Irish famine years of the 1840's, two decades earlier,  were the first of the political famines.