Might as well repost Friday's headline:
Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast To Intensify To Category 4 Hurricane, Cross Eastern Cuba, Aim At Bermuda
Adding the newly updated cone of uncertainty and forecaster's comments. From the National Hurricane Center, October 26:
Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory
.... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.4N 77.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHESDISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Melissa is moving
toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
Bahamas on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND....
....MUCH MORE
As noted in the October 24 post:
This season four hurricanes appeared headed for Bermuda with Imelda getting closest, 80 miles away as a category 1.
