Monday, October 20, 2025

Capital Markets: "Eerie Calm in the Foreign Exchange Market"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet, and the US dollar is slightly softer against most of the G10 currencies, though the Australian and Canadian dollar are struggling. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. The market seems optimistic that the US-China trade tensions can de-escalate with Beijing re-assigning Li Chenggang who apparently annoyed the US and was called out by US Treasury Secretary Bessent. China's Q3 GDP was broadly in line with expectations with a 1.1% quarterly advance that saw the first decline in non-property investment since the pandemic. 

Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly higher today. France was downgraded by S&P before the weekend and its 10-year yield is up 2-3 bp today, while the rest of the eurozone yields are half as much, including Italy, which was upgraded. The 10-year US Treasury yield is firmer but around 4.01% is still its trough. Equities are in rally-mode. A new alliance in Japan means that the LDP's Takaichi will be the next prime minister. The Nikkei rally nearly 3.4%. Mainland companies that trade in Hong Kong saw their shares jump 2.45%. Taiwan and South Korea indices rally 1.4%-1.7%. Europe's Stoxx 600, which lost nearly 1% before the weekend, is up nearly 0.65% in later morning turnover. US index futures are extending their pre-weekend gains. Gold stabilized. After dumping nearly 1.75% before the weekend, it is up about 0.25% to around $4262, having been up to $4275 earlier today. December WTI is little changed in about a $0.40 range on either side of $57....

....MUCH MORE