Friday, October 10, 2025

Capital Markets: "China Takes Dramatic Measures, While Japan's MOF Warns Against Excessive Yen Moves"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's surge. Following words of caution by Japan's finance minister, the yen is the strongest of the G10 currencies today, with around a 0.15% gain. The slowest underlying inflation in Norway in four months has weighted on the krone, which is off about 0.35%. Excluding the krone, the G10 currencies are little changed. Emerging market currencies are in a wide range but also mixed. Since the end of tis long national holiday, China has announced several measures including broader export controls on rare earths EV battery technology, and a levy on US ships making port calls in China. 

Japanese and Chinese equities fell with the major indices off more than 1%. South Korea and Indian markets rallied, but most of the other large bourses in the region fell. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed and US index futures are slightly firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are softer in Japan and Europe, mostly 1-2 bp lower. UK Gilts and French bonds are the best performers so far today. French President Macron is expected to name a new prime minister today and Belgium credit may be downgraded today. The 10-year Treasury yield is off nearly three basis points to 4.11%. The low for the week is closer to 4.09%. Gold held yesterday's low slightly below $3945 and has reemerged above $4000 today. The record high set Wednesday was almost $4060. November WTI was turned back after approaching $63 on Wednesday and Thursday and has tested the $61 area today. The week's low is near $60.70....

....CNY: ....China has taken three initiatives over the past 48 hours that are significant. First, it has tightened and extended export controls on rare earths and related technologies, doing in effect what the US has done with semiconductor chips/technology, including extraterritorial application of third-party sales. If enforced, China can demonstrate escalation domination in the semiconductor and AI space as processed rare earths and associated magnets of essential (effective December 1)  Second....

....MUCH MORE