Friday, October 31, 2025

"A narrow Pacific waterway is at the heart of U.S. plans to choke China’s vast navy"

The Chinese geo-strategists are very aware of the importance of choke points. More after the jump.

From Reuters, October 31:

The U.S. has deployed troops and anti-ship missiles into the northern Philippines as part of almost continuous, joint war drills throughout the country. One goal is to block the Bashi Channel and deny Chinese warships access to the Pacific Ocean if Beijing launches an attack on Taiwan. As a former Philippine military chief told Reuters: You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.

Marilyn Hubalde still remembers the first time she heard the thunderous chop of military helicopters swooping over this northernmost outpost of the Philippines, less than 90 miles from Taiwan. It was April 2023, when Filipino and American troops descended on the cluster of 10 emerald green islands of Batanes province for amphibious warfare drills.
 
“We were terrified,” the 65-year-old Hubalde recalled. “We thought China might attack when they learned there were military exercises in Batanes.” Hubalde’s helper, who was in the fields when the troops arrived, panicked and hid in the woods until nightfall. “She thought the war had already started,” said Hubalde, who owns a variety store in the provincial capital, Basco. 
Since then, Batanes’ 20,000 residents have become accustomed to high-tempo war games in these islands of tightly packed towns and villages wedged between rugged slopes and stony beaches. Among them: a series of joint exercises from April to June this year in which U.S. forces twice airlifted anti-ship missile launchers here.
 
Until recently, locals say, this smallest and least populous province of the Philippines was a peaceful backwater. But geography dictates that it is now on the frontline of the great power competition between the United States and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. The islands sit on the southern edge of the Bashi Channel, a major shipping lane between the Philippines and Taiwan that connects the South China Sea with the Western Pacific.
 
This year’s exercises revealed how the U.S. and its Philippine ally intend to use ground-based anti-ship missiles as part of efforts to deny the Chinese navy access to the Western Pacific by making this waterway impassable in a conflict, Reuters reporting shows. These missiles could also be used to attack a Chinese fleet attempting to invade Taiwan or mount a blockade against the democratically governed island.
 
The ability to conduct operations deep into the Pacific would be vital for the Chinese navy if it wanted to counter U.S. and Japanese attempts to intervene in a Taiwan crisis. Chinese naval and air forces would also need to operate in the Western Pacific to stymie any counter-measures by the U.S. and its allies if Beijing imposed a blockade on Taiwan.
 
“We should have the ability to deny the Chinese control of the Bashi Channel,” retired Rear Admiral Rommel Ong, a former vice-commander of the Philippine Navy, told Reuters in an interview. “In a conflict scenario, that decisive point will determine who wins or who loses.”
Retired General Emmanuel Bautista, a former chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, put it even more plainly: “The invasion of Taiwan is almost impossible if you don’t control the northern Philippines.”....
....MUCH MORE 

And the Chinese? They like the water. From the outro of September 2024's Meanwhile, In The Arctic: "Svalbard-research becomes more important for China, professor says"

We've mentioned China's proclivity for establishing bases on international maritime chokepoints: the billion dollar bridge over the Panama Canal, the giant battery factories in Morocco - the eastern approaches to the Strait of Gibralter.

Also February 2024's "Red Sea Rivalries": 

The most amazing thing that has been pointed out over the last couple months is that China's base on Djibouti's Gulf of Aden coast, at the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into the Red Sea, gives them the perfect location to monitor Houthi action and American reaction:

China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti

China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti, The Diplomat

Also the Suez Canal itself: ""China & Egypt Strengthen Belt And Road Collaborations Including The Suez Canal International Logistics Zone"
I'm beginning to see a pattern here.*

And April 2024 Why the U.S. and China Suddenly Care About a Port in Southern Chile":  

And all of a sudden (after years of development) China is hanging out at the entrance to some very strategic sea lanes. In fact, the only major chokepoint not seeing a Chinese development that comes to mind is the Strait of Malacca between Singapore/Malay Peninsula and Indonesia's Sumatra.

The Bering Strait between the Russian far east and Alaska, and South Africa are on a gentle simmer and back to Svalbard, one look at the map shows the attraction. Also from the Barents Observer, this time in 2021:

Geopolitics: "Moscow aims to enhance presence in Svalbard as part of hybrid-strategy, expert warns"

....Military speaking, Svalbard is of great strategical importance, located between the Barents-, Greenland-, and Norwegian Seas. The one controlling Svalbard is also likely to control the important gateway from the shallow Barents Sea to the deeper North Atlantic.

For Russia’s Northern Fleet, the so-called Bear Island Gap between mainland Norway and the archipelago’s southernmost island is key to conducting sea denial operations in and over the maritime areas further south, potentially threatening NATO’s transatlantic sea lines of communication.

See:Meanwhile, In The Arctic: "Svalbard-research becomes more important for China, professor says"

https://web.archive.org/web/20230629044229im_/https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/resize/skjermbilde_2020-12-01_kl._11.05.38-1000x602.png 

Russian Bastion Defence in relation to Norway and the Bear and GIUK Gaps. 
Source: Mikkola / RAND Europe report 

Back to the Persians, Iran seems to be cheering-on the not-quite-dormant anti-French sentiment among the Algerians once again. 

From LeMonde February 23: 

"After Islamist knife attack in Mulhouse, French interior minister blames Algiers"

And from Turkey's Anadolu Agency, February 26:

‘Long series of threats and harassment’: Algeria condemns fresh French sanctions

Finally:

July 5, 2024 
Chinese EV battery makers are building huge factories in Morocco to cash in on U.S. electric vehicle subsidies" (and China is now camped at most of the world's chokepoints 
I say, isn't Morocco on the Strait of Gibralter?*