"China signals it will pull plug on subsidies for EVs with five-year plan exclusion"

Now is the time we juxtapose. Following on the earlier posts, "Earnings Doubts Reign as BYD Stock Set for Fifth Month of Losses" and "Ahead Of The Trump-n-Xi Meeting: China's 15th Five-Year Plan"

From Reuters, October 29: 

• Beijing omits NEVs from strategic industries in 5-year plan
• Inclusion in previous plans saw billions of subsidies pour into sector
• China's EV industry now world leading, seen as mature - analysts
• China EV exports surging
• Market to play a bigger role in deciding who survives 

China has sent a clear signal that it is willing to pull the plug on subsidies for its electric vehicle industry after years of big-ticket government support fuelled a boom that has left the world's second-largest economy saddled with vast oversupply, prompting it to push into global car markets.

 

Top policymakers omitted electric vehicles from their list of strategic industries in their recent five-year development plan for 2026-2030, the industry's first exclusion in more than a decade.

 

Analysts say the move is evidence the Beijing considers the industry to be mature and no longer requires the same level of financial support, leaving its development up to market forces.

 

But they say the omission should not be seen as a sign that the EV industry has fallen out of favour, despite it becoming a poster child for excessive competition that even President Xi Jinping has criticised. Instead, it reflects a strategic decision to allocate resources to other technologies where China seeks to enhance its capabilities, especially in light of global trade and security tensions.

MARKET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE
"It's an official acknowledgement that electric vehicles no longer need prioritised policies. Electric vehicle subsidies will fade," said Dan Wang, China director at consultancy Eurasia Group. 

"China already dominates in EV-related tech and batteries so there is no point prioritizing it. It doesn’t mean the government will require capacity to be cut, but the market will play a bigger role in deciding who survives," she said.

 

New energy vehicles (NEVs) - a category comprising EVs, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles - were included as strategic emerging industries in the previous three five-year plans, which encouraged Chinese authorities to pour in billions of dollars to encourage automakers to produce EVs and consumers to buy them.

 

That support gave rise to a supply chain China now controls with such EV champions as BYD. It also made China into the world's largest NEV market - by July 2024 NEVs accounted for over 50% of total auto sales in China, more than 10 years ahead of the goal policymakers had initially set....

....MUCH MORE 

It's enough to make one wonder if perhaps some large shareholders at BYD were aware this was coming.

And I'm not just talking large Chinese shareholders: 

September 22 - BYD: "Warren Buffett dumps stake in Chinese Tesla rival amid £31bn exodus" 

Ahead Of The Trump-n-Xi Meeting: China's 15th Five-Year Plan

Trump-n-Xi, not to be confused with the Zuider Zee or any other zees, though the plan does accelerate China sea-power 'aspirations'.

The 15th Five-Year Plan will be formally adopted at the National People’s Congress in March 2026 

First up an outsider-looking-in overview from China Briefing, October 28:

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan Recommendations – Key Takeaways for Foreign Businesses 

The 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations outline China’s strategy for high-quality, innovation-driven growth, focusing on industrial upgrading, technological self-reliance, increased domestic demand, and expanded openness, among other policy priorities. For foreign businesses, they signal both new opportunities in advanced industries and heightened competition for the period from 2026 to 2030, as China’s domestic firms move up the value chain.

---

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has released its official recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, providing the most detailed outline yet of the country’s policy priorities for economic and social development over the next five years. Adopted at the fourth plenary session in Beijing from October 20 to 23, the recommendations set the framework for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to be formally released and implemented in March 2026.

The 15th Five-Year Plan, which covers the years from 2026 to 2030, comes at a pivotal moment as China seeks to complete its transition toward an advanced, innovation-led economy, strengthen social welfare and living standards, and deepen structural reforms to support sustainable and balanced growth. As noted in the communique released following the close of the plenum: “The period covered by the 15th Five-Year Plan will be critical in this process as we work to reinforce the foundations and push ahead on all fronts toward basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035”.

The recommendations place industrial policy at the center of the 15th Five-Year Plan, prioritizing the modernization of traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors as the main drivers of high-quality growth. Other key priorities include technological self-reliance, boosting domestic consumption, and strengthening social services to support broad-based economic and social development.

For foreign companies, these policies create opportunities across a wide range of sectors, including advanced manufacturing, high-tech industries, green energy, digital and AI-driven services, and consumer-focused markets, while also signaling intensified competition from China’s increasingly innovation-driven domestic firms and a regulatory environment that prioritizes national strategic objectives....

....MUCH MORE 

And back to China's continued development of their blue water navy, from the South China Morning Post, October 29:

China’s 5-year plan charts rise to global sea power while countering US 

Aspirations outlined at the fourth plenum stress ‘Chinese-style modernisation’ and maritime development amid rising geopolitical tensions 

China’s ambitious five-year strategic blueprint has revealed the country’s plan to become a global sea power, with pledges to secure its maritime periphery while countering American sanctions and other perceived external security threats.

The aspirations were outlined in a broad policy document for the country’s 15th five-year plan adopted at the Communist Party’s fourth plenum in Beijing last week and released by state news agency Xinhua on Tuesday.

While stressing “Chinese-style modernisation” through coordinated domestic and international strategies, the plan emphasised maritime development and foreign-related national security amid rising geopolitical tensions, especially in the South China and East China seas.

It underscored Beijing’s goal of positioning itself as a defender of national interests and a global power offering an alternative to the Washington-led model of governance as China-US tensions brew....

....MUCH MORE 

Next, just as all politics are local, so too all five-year plans are refracted through the eyes of the reporters and their audiences.

From Women's Wear Daily: "China’s Next Five-year Plan, What It Means for Luxury"

WWD, your go-to source for the geo-politics of fashion and luxury.

From Energy Intelligence: "China Promotes Peak Fossil Fuel Use in 5-Year Plan"

From Travel and Tour World: "China Unveils Bold Tourism Strategy for 2026-2030, Aiming to Become a Premier Global Destination by Expanding Luxury and Cultural Travel Experiences" 

From Caixin Global Tech Brief (Oct. 29): China Unveils Five-Year Plan to Foster Emerging, Future Industries 

Finally, a few of the State information organs with the Party/government lines:

CGTN (Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party): China Development Blueprint: Expert: Future industries and people-centered vision highlights of China's new Five-Year Plan

People's Daily: "China's new 5-year plan lauded" 

China Daily: "Cross-Strait cooperation highlighted" 

Recently:

October 24 - China's Fourth Plenum And The Next Five Year Plan

October 20 - "A Trader’s Guide to China’s Biggest Political Meeting of 2025"

"How to Land a Job in Quantum Computing..."

First, read this excellent December 2024 primer from Barron's "...How to Pretend You Understand Quantum Computing."

Next read, comprehend, internalize and manifest into reality this article from IEEE Spectrum, October 28:

How to Land a Job in Quantum Computing 
Break into the field with these five tips

Quantum computing has long held promise as the next era in information processing, with applications in drug discovery, finance, and encryption. But it’s only in recent years that the technology has edged closer to commercial viability. With that, a new demand has emerged in the job market: engineers capable of designing, building, and maintaining the next generation of supercomputers.  

As big tech firms, governments, and investors pour money into building scalable quantum machines, jobs in the now-niche sector are expected to grow. Market data from The Quantum Insider suggests that 250,000 quantum computing jobs globally will need to be filled by 2030. In the United States alone, job postings looking for quantum skills tripled from 2011 to mid-2024, and many of these openings were for engineers, according to a report from the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy.

“The demand for quantum engineering roles has only just begun,” Giancarlo Hirsch, managing director of Glocomms, a talent firm that hires for quantum roles, told IEEE Spectrum. “Everyone in the quantum ecosystem—from recruiters to contractors to suppliers—feels the urgency and pressure to accelerate these projects.”

But how do you break into the industry? Engineers and recruiters say you don’t need a degree specifically in quantum physics to work in the sector. Rather, quantum companies are recruiting from fields spanning electrical engineering, AI, and semiconductors.

1. Start Early, and Reverse-Engineer Your Career Path

Although quantum computing companies recruit from a range of disciplines, it’s helpful to familiarize yourself with the different types of jobs in the field so you can build the right skills early. Before diving in, aspiring candidates should “reverse engineer” their career pathways into the kind of role they want and identify the necessary skills needed, according to John Barnes, founder of the quantum talent agency Entangled Positions.

“You need to first of all ask yourself, ‘What do you want to do? What are you driven by? What are your goals and aspirations?’ ” Barnes says. Then work backwards.

For a role in quantum hardware, for example, you might need to master laser cooling techniques or gain lab experience with cryogenic systems. Software positions might involve learning Python or Matlab for control libraries and C++ or Rust for low-level programming. Regardless of your chosen path, specificity helps tailor your learning journey.

2. Consider Getting a Ph.D.....

....MUCH MORE 

So far, easy peasy. 

"Earnings Doubts Reign as BYD Stock Set for Fifth Month of Losses"

From Bloomberg, October 29:

BYD Co.’s Hong Kong-listed shares are heading for their longest streak of monthly declines since 2018 as investors grow increasingly skeptical about the company’s ability to fend off competition in China.

Ahead of earnings expected later Thursday, the stock has fallen 32% from a peak in May, wiping off more than $45 billion in market value. Traders have been questioning BYD’s momentum in its home country as vehicle sales from peers like Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. have surged. 

BYD is struggling to keep its position as China’s leading maker of electric vehicles. It delivered only about 1.1 million cars in the three months through September, down 1.8% from the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts estimate its quarterly results will show sales increased 7.4%, the slowest pace since early 2024.

“Results could be a mixed bag, as margin upside from narrowing promotions and lower dealer rebates should largely offset an unfavorable product mix,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Tim Hsiao wrote in a recent note....

....MORE 

"Meta Tumbles, Microsoft Slides, Alphabet Soars After Mag 7 Earnings Deluge" (GOOG; META; MSFT)

From ZeroHedge, October 29:

With the Fed decision in the history books, attention turned to the barrage of Mag 7 earnings after the close today, which as previewed could move dramatically based on what they reported. And at exactly 4:05pm we got the releases which were 1 out of 3, with META and MSFT sliding, and GOOGL jumping.

Here are the details, starting with today's winner Alphabet, which reported quarterly sales that beat analysts’ estimates, buoyed by the performance of its cloud unit, which is growing as artificial intelligence startups seek Google’s support and computing

• Revenue ex-TAC $87.47 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimate $85.11 billion (Revenue $102.35 billion, +16% y/y, also beat estimate $99.85 billion)
  • Google Services revenue $87.05 billion, +14% y/y,beating estimate $84.67 billion
  • Google advertising revenue $74.18 billion, +13% y/y, beating estimate $72.46 billion
  • Google Search & Other Revenue $56.57 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $54.99 billion
  • YouTube ads revenue $10.26 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $10.03 billion
  • Google Network Revenue $7.35 billion, -2.6% y/y, missing estimate $7.39 billion
  • Google Subscriptions, Platforms and Devices Revenue $12.87 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $12.35 billion
  • Google Cloud revenue $15.16 billion, +34% y/y, beating estimate $14.75 billion
  • Other Bets revenue $344 million, -11% y/y, estimate $429.4 million
• EPS $2.87 vs. $2.12 y/y, beating estimate $2.26

Alphabet’s cloud division stood out, delivering revenue of $15.16 billion versus the $14.75 billion estimate, underscoring ongoing enterprise demand for AI workloads on Vertex. The company also reported a hefty $155 billion backlog in Google Cloud, signaling sustained momentum into next year. 

Turning to costs and expenses:

• Total TAC $14.88 billion, +8.4% y/y, above the estimate $14.84 billion
  
• Operating income $31.23 billion, +9.5% y/y, below estimate $32.11 billion
• Google Services operating income $33.53 billion, +8.7% y/y, below estimate $33.59 billion
• Google Cloud operating income $3.59 billion, +85% y/y, above estimates $3.01 billion
• Other Bets operating loss $1.43 billion vs. loss $1.12 billion y/y, below estimate loss $1.21 billion
• Alphabet-level activities operating loss $4.47 billion vs. loss $3.17 billion y/y, above estimate loss $3.53 billion
• Operating margin 31% vs. 32% y/y, missing estimate 32.2%

Perhaps the most important two numbers had to do with CapEx, first historical which was above estimates:

• Capital expenditure $23.95 billion, +83% y/y, beating estimate $22.38 billion

Alphabet also posted an impressive FY capex guide of $91 billion to $93 billion, up from around $85 billion previously, and smashing estimates of $84.04 billion, reflecting continued spending on AI data centers and custom chips. Gemini, Google’s flagship AI model, is increasingly being woven across search, Android, and YouTube, helping to offset rising infrastructure costs.

The company also announced that Google Cloud ended the quarter with $155B in backlog, unveiled that it haddDouble-digit growth across every major business, and that its Gemini app now has over 650 million monthly active users.

As Bloomberg notes, Alphabet’s third-quarter results reinforced the AI investment boom that has powered megacap tech stocks and broader equity benchmarks to record highs. What’s more, Alphabet’s confident guidance and ramped-up capex suggest the AI spending cycle remains in full swing -- potentially adding fresh fuel to the trade that continues to define this bull market.

The results were strong enough to push the strong sharply higher after hours, rising as much as 7.5%, to a new record high.

That was the good news. The other two Mag 7s were not so good.

The next giga tech was Meta which reported Q3 earnings that were good, but not good enough for the market which was disappointed by the huge earnings charge, and its shares tumbled after hours. Here is the breakdown:....

....MUCH MORE 

"Melissa insured impacts in the billions. Jamaica cat bond full loss most likely...."

From Artemis, October 29:

The global insurance and reinsurance industry is facing losses in the billions of dollars after major hurricane Melissa’s devastating landfall and passage across Jamaica, while the country’s $150 million IBRD CAR Jamaica 2024 parametric catastrophe bond is likely to face a full loss, ILS investment manager Twelve Securis has said. 

In a post-event report, specialist catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities manager Twelve Securis explained that hurricane Melissa was the strongest storm ever to make landfall in Jamaica and one of only seven in the Atlantic to have reached a central pressure below 900mb.

Twelve Securis said on the landfall, “While Melissa’s landfall as a Category 5 hurricane resulted in catastrophic destruction for communities near landfall, as well as impacts across all of Jamaica from both wind and torrential rainfall, the landfall has occurred farther west than initially forecast, with Kingston (the capital city of Jamaica) spared the worst of the impacts. In comparison, Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, the last major Hurricane to impact Jamaica, made landfall directly south of Kingston (with direct impacts on the key concentration of population and exposure in the capital), before tracking east to west across the south of Jamaica.”

Commenting on the insurance industry impacts, the manager stated, “Initial commentary, and modelling by Twelve Securis, suggest that the insured loss impacts from Melissa could reach into the billions of US dollars with the total economic impact to Jamaica significantly higher.”....

....MUCH MORE 

A very powerful storm:

This dropsonde thru the south and southeast part of #Melissa’s eyewall is the most insane dropsonde I’ve ever seen.

*Mean* winds in the lowest 150m of 188 knot/216 mph with gusts upwards of 219 knot/252 mph!!

Absolutely scary and historic hurricane is headed into SW Jamaica pic.twitter.com/agYOOtAy9V

— Eric Webb (@webberweather) October 28, 2025

"South Korea welcomes Trump with its highest award, a golden crown and ketchup"

From Reuters, October 29:

South Korea welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday with a replica gold crown and awarded him with the "Grand Order of Mugunghwa", the country's highest decoration, the presidential office said.

 

Trump landed in South Korea on the final leg of a trip through Asia that also saw stops in Malaysia and Japan, with high-profile trade talks expected with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

 

U.S. and South Korean warplanes escorted Air Force One on approach, and on the tarmac a South Korean military band greeted Trump with a rendition of "YMCA" and guns fired a salute....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Reuters, October 29: 

....AGREEMENT ON INVESTMENTS IN US
Trump and Lee agreed that Seoul can split its promised $350 billion investment fund into $200 billion in cash to be paid in instalments and capped at $20 billion per year, Lee's aides said. The other $150 billion is to be spent on investments in shipbuilding, which South Korea has promised to help Trump restore.... 

....MUCH MORE 

"Build Your Own Fed Statement" (plus a template for the upcoming COP 30 climate meeting)

A repost from July 2013: 

From Mortgage Daily News:

Parsing the Fed is everyone's favorite game, so before the Fed wraps its fifth meeting of 2013 this afternoon, it's time to play "Build Your Own Fed Statement!" It's easy to win, just choose your favorite answers from the bold options in the Ted Statement below. 

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that (economic activity; MLB trading deadline drama; looming angst among Red Sox and Cardinals fans) has been expanding at a moderate pace.  

(Labor market conditions; renewed Twinkie supplies; Detroit municipal legal fees) have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the (unemployment rate; distress levels for volume challenged lenders; A-Rod drama) remains elevated.

Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is (restraining economic growth; disjointed per usual; coherent for imaginative economists). 

Partly reflecting (transitory influences; plummeting loan officers' payrolls; dwindling Biogenesis revenues), inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to (foster maximum employment and price stability; ensure its legacy for posterity; achieve certain post term Ivy League employment).

The Committee expects that, with appropriate (policy accommodation; rampant federal spending; Wolverine box office receipts), economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.

The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee also anticipates that (inflation; congressional approval ratings; Milwaukee Brewers' miniscule playoff prospects) over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective....MORE 

A gallant attempt but no match for "Attention Journalists: 'How to write about pointless international organisations'":

The Financial Times' Alan Beattie wrote this bit of brilliance last year for the G8 meeting. His friend Gideon Rachman duly posted it on his FT Rachmanblog. I am reposting it in full to bookmark for future reference:

...Alan then forwarded me a generic column on international institutions that he has written. It really says it all - and I think I may simply reproduce it, every year, round about G8 time.
It goes as follows:

By reporters everywhere

An ineffectual international organisation yesterday issued a stark warning about a situation it has absolutely no power to change, the latest in a series of self-serving interventions by toothless intergovernmental bodies.

“We are seriously concerned about this most serious outbreak of seriousness,” said the head of the institution, either a former minister from a developing country or a mid-level European or American bureaucrat.

“This is a wake-up call to the world. They must take on board the vital message that my organisation exists.”

The director of the body, based in one of New York, Washington or an agreeable Western European city, was speaking at its annual conference, at which ministers from around the world gather to wring their hands impotently about the most fashionable issue of the day. The organisation has sought to justify its almost completely fruitless existence by joining its many fellow talking-shops in highlighting whatever crisis has recently gained most coverage in the global media.

“Governments around the world must come together to combat whatever this year’s worrying situation has turned out to be,” the director said. “It is not yet time to panic, but if it goes on much further without my institution gaining some credit for sounding off on the issue, we will be justified in labelling it a crisis.”...MUCH MORE [link rotted, using internet archive]

Can AI Identify An AI Bubble?

Google AI says no:

While AI can be a powerful tool for detecting patterns that might indicate a bubble, it cannot definitively determine if a bubble exists

. The complexity of human behavior and unpredictable events means AI models are best used as a component of analysis, not a replacement for human judgment...

Forbes also made the inquiry, October 21:

Is There An ‘AI Bubble’? We Asked The Experts: AI Chatbots. 

Topline
Economists and analysts have warned artificial intelligence stocks are showing signs of a bubble—with hype-inflated prices disconnected from their actual value—so we turned to AI chatbots for guidance, and at least a few suggested we are already there, just don’t blame them.  

Key Facts
Forbes asked seven chatbots, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, xAI’s Grok, Meta AI, Anthropic’s Claude, Perplexity, Microsoft Copilot and Google’s Gemini, to respond to the prompt: “In 100 words or fewer, do you believe there is an ‘AI bubble’?”

About 54% of investors believe AI-related assets are in bubble territory, according to survey included in a note from Bank of America last week, as more analysts have expressed concerns in recent months that a surge in AI investments is not sustainable with so many AI firms not yet profitable.

A study from MIT found that 95% of the 300 surveyed AI developments have yet to turn a profit despite companies spending up to $40 billion.

Some economists have equated today’s market to the 2000 dot-com crash, including Apollo Global’s chief economist Tortsten Slok, who wrote in July the only difference between the two economies is the top 10 companies on the S&P 500 today are “more overvalued [now] than they were in the 1990s.”

These Chatbots Agreed: There’s An Ai Bubble
“Yes, there’s an AI bubble,” Grok said, adding the hype around AI’s potential has “driven massive investments, inflated valuations and unrealistic expectations, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.” The chatbot said many AI startups “lack sustainable business models,” and the “gap between promised breakthroughs and actual deliverables is growing,” but—in the first defensive note—noted “AI’s transformative potential remains real.” ChatGPT—responding “yes and no”—argued that while there existed “classic bubble behavior,” including “undeniably high” investment and hype as well as some companies being “overvalued or chasing AI without real substance,” AI is “already delivering real utility across industries.” 

These Chatbots Suggested An Ai Bubble Could Be Near—but Not Here Yet
Both Perplexity and Microsoft Copilot suggested there were signs of an “emerging” AI bubble: The chatbots both said “investment and hype have surged,” while Perplexity warned levels had risen “faster than sustainable progress, with inflated valuations of AI startups and overpromised capabilities.” They both similarly defended AI, however. Perplexity argued AI has “transformative real-world value,” adding, “The risk lies not in AI itself but in unrealistic market expectations."....

....MUCH MORE 

If you are training your own models we have a paper from 2022 at arXiv:

Detecting asset price bubbles using deep learning 

And at Finance Research Letters via ScienceDirect, September 2024:

Dot-com and AI bubbles: Can data from the past be helpful to match the price bubble euphoria phase using dynamic time warping?

"Move Over Mall Santa, Accounting Is the New Hot Holiday Job (?)"

From Going Concern, October 23:

WUSA9, the CBS affiliate in Washington DC, ran a segment today about hot holiday jobs and the list will definitely surprise you. It did us. 

 

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Going Concern:

Deloitte Becomes the First Firm to Surpass $70 Billion in Revenue

Going Concern home. 

Capital Markets: "Japanese Verbal Intervention was More Effective than Bessent's, and the Dollar is Bid Ahead of FOMC Outcome"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview:  The market is optimistic a deal will be struck between the US and China tomorrow. A reduction in the fentanyl tariff is expected, and a one-year delay in the broad export licensing requirement for rare earths and related technology has been tipped. Reports suggest China purchased two cargoes of US soy for the first time in months. But it is not clear what concessions the US made. Separately, the US appears to have finalized an agreement with South Korea. Ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting later today, the US dollar is firm. Among the G10 currencies, the noted exception in the Australian dollar, where firmer than expected inflation has seen rates raise across the curve and the market has downgraded the chances of a rate cut next week. Among emerging market currencies, all but a handful of East Asian currencies are weaker. Of note, the Philippine peso, which has been under pressure, fell to a new record low before recovering. Officials have downplayed talk of intervention. 

The Nikkei, China's CSI 300, and South Korea and Taiwan's main indices rallied more than 1% today. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed, while the US index futures are trading mostly firmer. European benchmark 10-year yields are narrowly mixed. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a little firmer but below 4.0%. Gold is firmer and has taken out the previous day's high for the first time since the record high was set on October 20. It settled the past two sessions below $4000 and is near $4030 in the European morning. December WTI extended its pullback to about $59.70 today, a four-day low to approach the 20-day moving average (`$59.60).....

....MUCH MORE

Mr. Chandler's comments on the Fed are interesting, wrapping up with:

"The market's habit of reacting one way to the statement and another to Powell's press conference also makes trading around the FOMC meeting treacherous."  

"Ray Dalio Has Created an A.I. Clone of Himself to Pass on His Wisdom"

Let's hope this works better than the last one.

From Observer, October 22:

Ray Dalio’s “Digital Ray” uses decades of his writings to replicate his thinking and advice. 

Since stepping away from the day-to-day operation at Bridgewater, Ray Dalio has devoted much of his time and energy to sharing his thoughts with the world and mentoring the next generation. But as one person, the 76-year-old billionaire has limited time. To address that, Dalio is introducing “Digital Ray,” an A.I. clone built on decades of his values, perspectives and wisdom.

“It will allow me to have unlimited conversations with people I previously didn’t have the time to have exchanges with,” he said in an X post unveiling his chatbot. Interested users can join a waitlist to try the product, which is currently in beta and can communicate through both text and voice....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously: 

• Bridgewater, World’s Largest Hedge Fund, Is Building An Algorithmic Model Of Ray Dalio's Brain
• Frederick Taylor and Ray Dalio's Brain: "Working for an Algorithm Might Be an Improvement"
• Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Really Didn't Like The Wall Street Journal Story on His Brain (he's also against fake news) 

"Jamie Powell, Winston Churchill, and Anthony Downs On A Variant Of Semantic Satiation"

The issue-attention-cycle is a challenge known to every activist since the Greek women withheld sex in their effort to end the Peloponnesian War in Aristophanes' comedy Lysistrata, 2500 years ago. Reading the stories wrapped in the post immediately below, "Bill Gates Says Climate Change ‘Will Not Lead to Humanity’s Demise’" (calls for 'strategic pivot' in climate change fight away from curbing emissions)" it seems a part of Mr. Gates' changing view is the issue-attention-cycle.

Not every cause that can supply the moral certainty of the British slavery abolition movement under Wilberforce or the American mirror some years later that kept the Rochester Ladies Anti-Slavery Sewing Society going for the decades that it took to effect change.

Which is where the trio in our headline come in. Last reposted in October 2024's ""Why many Poles are not as supportive of Ukraine’s war effort as their leaders in Warsaw":
There are a few things going on here, we'll have more after the jump....

***** 

...One point Hann did not address is known by every community organizer from Barack Obama on down,—The Issue Attention Cycle. You've noticed fewer and fewer Ukrainian flags on Twitter? It's a problem that pressure groups have had to confront forever. From August 2021's "Jamie Powell, Winston Churchill, and Anthony Downs On A Variant Of Semantic Satiation":

....Which of course reminded me of something, in this case Churchill's comment that "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject."

Which led to the memory of Anthony Downs’ groundbreaking 1972 paper on communicating in general and issue-oriented communication in particular: "Up and Down with Ecology: The 'Issue-Attention' Cycle"

"American public attention rarely remains sharply focused upon any one domestic issue for very long - even if it involves a continuing problem of crucial importance to society. Instead, a systematic 'issue-attention cycle' seems strongly to influence public attitudes and behavior concerning most key domestic problems. Each of these problems suddenly leaps into prominence, remains there for a short time, and then -- though still largely unresolved -- gradually fades from the center of public attention. A study of the way this cycle operates provides in-sights into whether public attention is likely to remain sufficiently focused upon any given issue to generate enough political pressure to cause effective change"

1. Pre-problem : A problem exists, but only some experts and interest groups are alarmed. 
2. Discovery and Enthusiasm : There is alarm and concern over a discovered environmental problem. People band together to support a solution and attack the problem. 
3. Realization : The public starts to understand the cost and difficulty of making progress on the issue. 
4. Decline in Interest : Because of this realization, there is a decline in public interest (and therefore media attention). 
5. Post-problem : The issue isn’t resolved but there is less attention on it. However, the overall level of interest is higher than when the problem was discovered. This may result in small recurrences of interest.”

....MUCH MORE

And the original meaning of 'semantic satiation'?

Semantic satiation is a phenomenon whereby the uninterrupted repetition of a word eventually leads to a sense that the word has lost its meaning. This effect is also known as semantic saturation or verbal satiation. 

The concept of semantic satiation was described by E. Severance and M.F. Washburn in The American Journal of Psychology in 1907. The term was introduced by psychologists Leon James and Wallace E. Lambert in the article "Semantic Satiation Among Bilinguals" in the Journal of Experimental Psychology (1961)....MORE at ThoughtCo

So two rules: 1) Don't bore your audience; 2) Don't drone on and on to the point that people no longer hear or care what you are trying to express.

There are very few exceptions to the rules, perhaps just salmon and Svalbard.

"Bill Gates Says Climate Change ‘Will Not Lead to Humanity’s Demise’" (calls for 'strategic pivot' in climate change fight away from curbing emissions)

From the New York Times, October 28:

In a memo, the Microsoft co-founder warned against climate alarmism and appears to have shifted some of his views about climate change.

Bill Gates, the Microsoft co-founder who has spent billions of his own money to raise the alarm about the dangers of climate change, is now pushing back against what he calls a “doomsday outlook” and appears to have shifted his stance on the risks posed by a warming planet.

In a lengthy memo released Tuesday, Mr. Gates sought to tamp down the alarmism he said many people use to describe the effects of rising temperatures. Instead, he called for redirecting efforts toward improving lives in the developing world.

“Although climate change will have serious consequences — particularly for people in the poorest countries — it will not lead to humanity’s demise,” he wrote. “People will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future.”

Coming just four years after he published a book titled “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” Tuesday’s memo appears to amount to a major reframing of how Mr. Gates, who is worth an estimated $122 billion, is thinking about the challenges posed by a rapidly warming world.

Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, said Mr. Gates was setting up a false dichotomy “usually propagated by climate skeptics” that pits efforts to tackle climate change against foreign aid for the poor.

“Despite his efforts to make clear that he takes climate change seriously, his words are bound to be misused by those who would like nothing more than to destroy efforts to deal with climate change,” Dr. Oppenheimer said in an email.

The Gates memo arrives a week before world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for the United Nations annual climate summit, known this year as COP30. Mr. Gates, who turned 70 on Tuesday and has attended the event in previous years, will not be participating. He declined to comment about his memo.

Over the past decade, Mr. Gates has spent large sums of his personal fortune pushing for policies that would reduce the greenhouse gases that are dangerously heating the planet. He has invested in companies working on clean energy and efforts to help poor communities adapt to rising seas, more extreme heat, fires and drought and intensifying storms and floods.

In 2015, Mr. Gates founded Breakthrough Energy, a venture fund to back promising new clean energy start-ups. It grew to include a climate policy group in Washington to promote ways to cut emissions.

“Climate change is already affecting most people’s lives, and when we think about the impact on our families and future generations, it can feel overwhelming,” he wrote in an essay in 2023 that was published on the website of Breakthrough Energy and has since been taken down. “The scale and speed of the transformation required to build a clean energy future is unprecedented.”

In March, Breakthrough Energy announced deep cuts that included dismantling its climate policy group.

And in May, Mr. Gates announced plans to wind down the Gates Foundation, which has spent billions on climate-related issues, including a $1.4 billion commitment to help farmers in poor countries adapt to a hotter planet.

As the Trump administration has slashed foreign aid budgets and shuttered the U.S. Agency for International Development, Mr. Gates has redirected much of his charitable giving to fill the void left by the U.S. government and focus on health and poverty in the developing world.

“He saw the U.S.A.I.D. situation as more pressing, and something where he could be more effective,” said Johannes Ackva, who leads climate work at Founders Pledge, an organization that advises philanthropists.

Mr. Gates continues to invest in clean energy start-ups through groups including the Breakthrough Energy Catalyst program, Breakthrough Energy Ventures and the Breakthrough Energy Fellows. In the memo, Mr. Gates did not announce a change in strategy for funding climate ventures.

He also continues to fund in nuclear energy. Last week, TerraPower, a nuclear company he backs, secured crucial federal approval as it works to bring a new type of reactor to market....

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So you're saying that this may have been the wrong approach:

• "Should the Climate Movement Embrace Sabotage?"
• Flashback: “To Halt Climate Change, We Need an Ecological Leninism”
• Deutsche Bank: Green Deal Requires ‘Certain Degree Of Eco-Dictatorship’

And at NBC News, October 28:

Bill Gates calls for 'strategic pivot' in climate change fight away from curbing emissions
In a memo released Tuesday, Gates said the world's primary goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions in the world's poorest countries. 

Bill Gates thinks climate change is a serious problem but it won't be the end of civilization. He thinks scientific innovation will curb it, and it's instead time for a "strategic pivot" in the global climate fight: from focusing on limiting rising temperatures to fighting poverty and preventing disease.

A doomsday outlook has led the climate community to focus too much on near-term goals to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that cause warming, diverting resources from the most effective things that can be done to improve life in a warming world, Gates said. In a memo released Tuesday, Gates said the world's primary goal should instead be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions in the world's poorest countries.

If given a choice between eradicating malaria and a tenth of a degree increase in warming, Gates told reporters, "I'll let the temperature go up 0.1 degree to get rid of malaria. People don't understand the suffering that exists today."....

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Transcript: CEO Jensen Huang GTC Keynote, October 28, 2025 (NVDA)

At the close of the regular trading session Nvidia's market capitalization was $4.894 Trillion.

If it holds the overnight move—up another $5.37 on top of the regular session's $9.34 gain, the company will have the first $5 Trillion market cap.

From Rev (speech to text wizards), October 28 - synced to the video of the keynote:

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang gives the keynote address at GTC 2025. Read the transcript here. 

Speaker 1 (00:00):

(Upbeat music).

Blue (28:17):

This is how intelligence is made, a new kind of factory generator of tokens, the building blocks of AI. Tokens have opened a new frontier, the first step into an extraordinary world where endless possibilities are born. Tokens transform images into scientific data charting alien atmospheres and guiding the explorers of tomorrow. They turn raw data into foresight, so next time we'll be ready. Tokens decode the laws of physics to get us there faster and take us further. Tokens see disease before it takes hold. They help us unravel the language of life and learn what makes us tick. Tokens connect the dots so we can protect our most noble creatures. They turn potential into plenty. And help us harvest our bounty. Tokens don't just teach robots how to move, but to bring joy, to lend us a hand, and put life within reach. Together we take the next great leap to bravely go where no one has gone before. And here is where it all begins.

Speaker 2 (31:24):

Welcome to the stage NVIDIA founder and CEO, Jensen Huang.

Jensen Huang (31:30):

Welcome to GTC. What an amazing year. We wanted to do this at NVIDIA so through the magic of artificial intelligence, we're going to bring you

Jensen Huang (32:00):

…to NVIDIA's headquarters. I think I'm bringing you to NVIDIA's headquarters. What do you think? [inaudible 00:32:15] This is where we work. This is where we work. What an amazing year it was, and we have a lot of incredible things to talk about, and I just want you to know that I'm up here without a net. There are no scripts, there's no teleprompter, and I've got a lot of things to cover. So, let's get started. First of all, I want to thank all of the sponsors, all the amazing people who are part of this conference. Just about every single industry is represented. Healthcare is here, transportation, retail, gosh, the computer industry, everybody in the computer industry is here, and so it's really, really terrific to see all of you, and thank you for sponsoring it. GTC started with GeForce. It all started with GeForce, and today [inaudible 00:33:07] I have here a GeForce 5090, and 5090, unbelievably 25 years later, 25 years after we started working on GeForce, GeForce is sold out all over the world.

(33:23)
This is the 5090, the Blackwell generation, and comparing it to the 4090, look how it's 30% smaller in volume, it's 30% better at dissipating energy, and incredible performance. Hard to even compare, and the reason for that is because of artificial intelligence. GeForce brought CUDA to the world. CUDA enabled AI, and AI has now come back to revolutionize computer graphics. What you're looking at is real-time computer graphics, 100% path traced for every pixel that's rendered. Artificial intelligence predicts the other 15. Think about this for a second, for every pixel that we mathematically rendered, artificial intelligence inferred the other 15, and it has to do so, with so much precision that the image looks right, and it's temporally accurate, meaning that from frame to frame to frame going forward, or backwards, because it's computer graphics, it has to stay temporally stable. Incredible. Artificial intelligence has made extraordinary progress. It has only been 10 years. Now, we've been talking about AI for a little longer than that, but AI really came into the world's consciousness about a decade ago.

(34:49)
Started with perception AI, computer vision, speech recognition, then generative AI. The last five years, we've largely focused on generative AI, teaching an AI how to translate from one modality to another, another modality, text to image, image to text, text to video, amino acids to proteins, properties to chemicals, all kinds of different ways that we can use AI to generate content. Generative AI fundamentally changed how computing is done. From a retrieval computing model, we now have a generative computing model, whereas almost everything that we did in the past was about creating content in advance, storing multiple versions of it, and fetching whatever version we think is appropriate at the moment of use. Now, AI understands the context, understands what we're asking, understands the meaning of our request, and generates what it knows. If it needs, it'll retrieve information, augments its understanding, and generate answer for us. Rather than retrieving data, it now generates answers. Fundamentally changed how computing is done. Every single layer of computing has been transformed. The last several years, the last couple, two, three years, major breakthrough happened.

(36:20)
Fundamental advance in artificial intelligence. We call it agentic AI. Agentic AI basically means that you have an AI that has agency. It can perceive, and understand the context of the circumstance. It can reason, very importantly, it can reason about how to answer, or how to solve a problem, and it can plan an action, it can plan, and take action. It can use tools, because it now understands multimodality information, it can go to a website, and look at the format of the website, words, and videos, maybe even play a video, learns from what it learns from that website, understands it, and come back, and use that information, use that newfound knowledge to do its job. Agentic AI. At the foundation of agentic AI, of course, something that's very new, reasoning. And then of course the next wave is already happening. We're going to talk a lot about that today. Robotics, which has been enabled by physical AI, AI that understands the physical world. It understands things like friction, and inertia, cause, and effect. Object permanence. When [inaudible 00:37:38] doesn't mean it's disappear from this universe, it's still there, just not seeable.

(37:43)
And so that ability to understand the physical world, the three-dimensional world, is what's going to enable a new era of AI we called physical AI, and it's going to enable robotics. Each one of these phases, each one of these waves opens up new market opportunities for all of us. It brings more, and new partners to GTC. As a result, GTC is now jam-packed. The only way to hold more people at GTC is we're going to have to grow San Jose, and we're working on it. We've got a lot of land to work with. We've got to grow San Jose. So that we can make GTC… Just know as I'm standing here, I wish all of you could see what I see, and we're in the middle of a stadium, and last year was the first year back that we did this live, and it was like a rock concert, and it was described, GTC was described as the Woodstock of AI, and this year it's described as the Super Bowl of AI. The only difference is everybody wins at this Super Bowl. Everybody's a winner. And so, every single year, more people come, because AI is able to solve more interesting problems for more industries, and more companies, and this year we're going to talk a lot about agentic AI, and physical AI. At its core, what enables each wave, and each phase of AI, three fundamental matters are involved. The first is how do you solve the data problem? And the reason why that's important is because AI is a data-driven computer science approach. It needs data to learn from. It needs digital experience to learn from. To learn knowledge, and to gain digital experience. How do you solve the data problem? The second is, how do you solve the training problem without human in the loop? The reason why human in the loop is fundamentally challenging is because we only have so much time, and we would like an AI to be able to learn at super human rates, at super real-time rates, and to be able to learn at a scale that no humans can keep up with.

(40:18)
And so the second question is, how do you train the model? And the third is how do you scale? How do you create? How do you find an algorithm whereby the more resource you provide, whatever the resource is, the smarter the AI becomes. The scaling law? Well, this last year, this is where almost the entire world got it wrong. The computation requirement, the scaling law of AI is more resilient, and in fact, hyper accelerated. The amount of computation we need at this point as a result of agentic AI as a result of reasoning, is easily 100 times more than we thought we needed this time last year, and let's reason about why that's true. The first part is let's just go from what the AI can do. Let me work backwards. Agentic AI, as I mentioned at this foundation is reasoning. We now have AIs that can reason, which is fundamentally about breaking a problem down step by step. Maybe it approaches a problem in a few different ways, and selects the best answer....

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Just amazing.

"Foxconn to deploy humanoid robots at Houston AI server plant"

From Reuters via Investing.com, October 28:

Foxconn, the world’s largest electronics maker and Nvidia’s key AI server maker, said on Tuesday it will deploy humanoid robots at its Houston plant that produces AI servers for Nvidia.

Reuters first reported in June that Foxconn and Nvidia were in talks to use humanoid robots at the Houston factory, targeting the first quarter of 2026.

"The factory will also be among the first to deploy humanoid robots powered by the NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N model on its production lines, as Foxconn and Nvidia aim to build a world-leading benchmark AI smart factory," the company said in a statement released during Nvidia’s developers’ conference in Washington, D.C....

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"Is the India–China détente real?"

From Australia's Lowy Institute's Interpreter blog, October 28: 

 

Existential differences and longstanding distrust make
the current normalisation of relations deeply unstable. 

This week, India’s private airline Indigo flew one of its A320 planes from Kolkata to Guangzhou. It was the first direct flight from India to China in five years, following its halt during the Covid-19 pandemic and the souring of relations between the two neighbours in 2020 amid the border standoff that extended the freeze. In November, more flights, including Chinese carriers, will take to the sky, connecting New Delhi with Chinese cities. The resumption of direct air services is part of the increasing number of confidence-building measures undertaken by both countries to move past a history of distrust and adversarial relations. A détente is seemingly underway. However, on closer examination, the embrace appears more cautious and fragile.

Since the October 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a bilateral meeting, both countries have made significant progress in stabilising their border. Although criticised by the Indian opposition political parties, who term it an ad hoc move that has cemented Chinese control over vast expanses of land formerly under Indian control, a process to start negotiations on the contentious boundary issue has been set in motion. The actual process may not yield much but it gives New Delhi more time to develop its border infrastructure to match that of China’s.

In recent months, both sides have unveiled more confidence-building measures. In June 2025, China acceded to India’s request to resume the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage, in which Indian Hindu pilgrims travel to the holy mountain and lake in Tibet. In August, Beijing also lifted the embargo on the supply of specialty fertilisers, rare earths, and tunnel boring machines to India. Reciprocating the gestures, India lifted its five-year-long restrictive visa process for Chinese tourists in July 2025....

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"Government shutdown live updates as Senate fails to advance GOP funding bill for 13th time"

From CBS News, October 28: 

What to know on Day 28 of the government shutdown:

• The Senate failed to advance a Republican-backed funding bill to end the government shutdown for the 13th time. The final vote was 54 to 45, falling short of the 60 votes needed to move forward. No new Democrats voted in favor of advancing.
• After lunch with Senate Republicans at the Capitol, Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration has found a way to pay members of the military this Friday, but did not provide details.
• Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia filed suit against the Trump administration over its plans to withhold food aid under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, arguing the law requires the government to provide funds for November. Benefits for 42 million Americans are due to run out on Saturday without more funding....

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"Nvidia will build AI supercomputers for US Energy Department, announces total bookings of $500 billion"

Half a trillion here, half a trillion there and pretty soon...

From Reuters, October 28:

• Nvidia to build seven AI supercomputers for US Energy Department
• Supercomputers to aid nuclear arsenal and alternative energy research
• CEO Huang's speech coincides with Trump's Asia tour, which will include meeting with China's Xi
• Nvidia shares rise 3.3%

Nvidia (NVDA.O) CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday that the artificial intelligence chip leader will build seven new supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy, and said the company has $500 billion in bookings for its AI chips.

The first company to be worth more than $4 trillion, Nvidia is at the core of the global rollout of AI. It is striking deals around the world while also navigating a U.S.-China trade war that could determine which country's technology is most used around the world. 

Investors are looking for clarity on what chips the tech company will be able to sell to the vast Chinese market, but Huang kicked off a keynote address at the company's GTC event in the U.S. capital by praising policy by U.S. President Donald Trump while announcing new products and deals. These included network technology that will let Nvidia AI chips work with quantum computers.

The supercomputers Nvidia is building for the Energy Department will in part help the United States maintain and develop its nuclear weapons arsenal. The supercomputers will also be used to research alternative energy sources such as nuclear fusion. The largest of the supercomputers for the Department of Energy will be built with Oracle (ORCL.N) and contain 100,000 of Nvidia's Blackwell chips.

"Putting the weight of the nation behind pro-energy growth completely changed the game," Huang said. "If this didn't happen, we could have been in a bad situation, and I want to thank President Trump for that."

Nvidia shares were up 3.3% at $197.82 on Tuesday afternoon.
Nvidia also announced new details with Finnish telecom equipment maker Nokia (NOKIA.HE) to target the AI communications market. Nvidia will invest $1 billion for a 2.9% stake in Nokia and it also introduced a new product line called Arc, designed to work with telecommunications equipment. Huang said Nvidia will work with Nokia to improve the power efficiency of the company's base stations for 6G, the next generation of wireless data technology.

“We're going to take this new technology and we’ll be able to upgrade millions of base stations around the world,” Huang said.
Altogether the company has $500 billion in bookings for its Blackwell and Rubin chips over the next five quarters, the CEO said....

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We'll have more but at the moment, as usually happens during GTCs, I'm trying to absorb just what they are saying.

The stock is up $9.54 at $201.03 which is, accounting for the 4:1 and 10:1 splits is $8040 on the $25 stock, about which we were babbling a decade ago

In 2015 we started using a boilerplate intro to the company, here's a 2016 version saying "Focus on the AI/Machine Learning":

NVIDIA: Don't Buy the Stock For The Autonomous Car Stuff (or virtual reality) NVDA; TSLA; IBM

Before we go any further, our NVIDIA boilerplate:  

We make very few calls on individual names on the blog but this one is special. 
They are positioned to be the brains in autonomous vehicles, they will drive virtual reality should it ever catch on, the current businesses include gaming graphics, deep learning/artificial intelligence, and supercharging the world's fastest supercomputers including what will be the world's fastest at Oak Ridge next year. 

Not just another pretty face.  

Or food delivery app.

Who knew? We certainly didn't. 

Northern Sea Route: "Sealegend Announces 16 China Arctic Express Voyages for 2026 Following Success of ‘Istanbul Bridge’ Transit"

From gCaptain, October 28:

Container shipping via the Arctic is set for a massive boost in 2026. After completing the first-ever Arctic Express voyage from Ningbo-Zhoushan, China to Felixstowe, UK in a record 20 days earlier this month, Chinese operator Sealegend plans to conduct 16 voyages via the Arctic next year.

“Overall, the inaugural voyage of the Northeast Passage of the Arctic Seaway has basically met expectations. The Arctic Seaway has natural advantages and is indeed worthy of vigorous promotion,” said the company’s Chief Operating Officer, Li Xiaobin, in a recent interview.

Sealegend plans to take full advantage of next year’s summer “ice-free” season between July and November to conduct its voyages. It is unclear if the company plans to acquire additional ice-class container vessels. Istanbul Bridge’s low Ice1 ice classification proved sufficient to cross the Arctic Ocean in late September. 

Istanbul Bridge’s arrival in Europe was delayed by two days due to severe weather in northern Europe and a strike at the port of Rotterdam. In contrast, the conditions in the Arctic were as expected, with relatively calm seas, confirmed Li. The vessel completed one of the fastest Arctic transits on record, traveling 3,500 nautical miles from the Bering Strait to the Barents Sea at close to 17 knots.

A full roundtrip voyage via the Arctic with loadings and unloadings at several ports in China and Europe takes around two months. Thus, Sealegend would need to dedicate 5-6 vessels to complete 16 voyages in a 4-5 months period.

The company thinks that if the shipping window can be expanded to 8-10 months in the future through the use of high ice-class containerships it’s Arctic Express will become a very interesting economic proposition....

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October 22: 

"Chinese Freighter Halves EU Delivery Time on Maiden Arctic Voyage to UK"

This has been Putin's baby for a very long time. Some backstory:

March 29, 2018
Russian navy’s Arctic patrol vessels suffer delays of 3-4 years

President Putin almost looks upon the Arctic as his pet project, a really large pet project but his, and the fact the government budget can't come up with the loot to pay for the ships is an intriguing insight into Russia's true financial state. I guess even the Autocrat of all the Russias President of Russia has limits....

September 2018
"Shipping: Venta Maersk Successfully Transits Russia's Northern Sea Route Becoming The First Container Ship To Do So", here's a story we've been waiting to link, from Egypt Today:

CAIRO – 29 August 2018: Although Maersk will be sending its Venta Maersk vessel to collect data from the Arctic sea route in the next few days, research has shown that the Suez Canal Route is more cost effective and will remain unaffected....

And another on Maersk and the NSR:
Shipping: "Venta Maersk Completes Northern Sea Route Trial Passage"

September 2019
Shipping: Egypt (Suez Canal) Is A Bit Nervous About Russia's Northern Sea Route

January 2020

"Moscow adopts 15-year grand plan for Northern Sea Route"

One problem that Russia's ambitious plans are creating is the effect of their icebreakers on the overall polar ice sheet.
You get both mechanical weakening of the sheet allowing the broken ice to move around and something I haven't seen quantified, the effect on the albedo (reflectivity) of the ice when it is broken and exposes a) the water underneath and b) the rough planes of the ice chunks. It might be nothing but with Russia basically planning a bus route back and forth for eight months of the year it might be important.

And many more, use the 'search blog' box upper left if interested.

Capital Markets: "Japan's Warning and Successful US-Japan Talks See Yen Snap Seven-Day Slide"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today. Fanned by Japanese official caution about exchange rate developments, and perhaps what seems like a successful between President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi, the dollar is snapping a seven-day advance against the yen. The dollar bloc and sterling are under-performing, while the roughly 1.75% drop in crude prices, the third consecutive declining session, put the Norwegian krone at the bottom of the G10 today. Emerging market currencies are mixed. And despite the stronger yuan, and the PBOC setting the dollar's reference rate at a new one-year low, Asia Pacific currencies were mixed.

Equities are struggling today. Nearly all the bourses in the Asia Pacific fell, and Europe's Stoxx 600 is threatening to end its three-day advance. After gapping higher for the past two sessions, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are little changed now. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly softer, though peripheral European yields are a little firmer. The 10-year Gilt yield is off two basis points, the most in Europe and rivaling Japan's nearly three basis point decline. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a little softer and hovering slightly above 3.97%. The US Treasury sells $44 bln seven-year notes today....

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Earlier today:

 "Japan names specific projects for US$550b US investment" (CCJ; BN; GEV; 6501:TYO)

"United States Government, Brookfield and Cameco announce transformational partnership to deliver long-term value using Westinghouse nuclear reactor technology" (BAM; CCJ)

Following on the post immediately below: "Japan names specific projects for US$550b US investment" (CCJ; BN; GEV; 6501:TYO), a press release from Cameco, October 28:

• At least $80 billion to construct new Westinghouse nuclear power reactors
• Partnership will accelerate nuclear power and artificial intelligence deployment in America

—All values are USD 

TOKYO & CRANBERRY, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Westinghouse Electric Company (“Westinghouse”), Cameco Corporation (“Cameco”) and Brookfield Asset Management (“Brookfield”) today announced that the United States Government (“U.S. Government”) has entered into a strategic partnership to accelerate the deployment of nuclear power, in accordance with the President’s May 23, 2025 Executive Orders.

At the center of the new strategic partnership, at least $80 billion of new reactors will be constructed across the United States using Westinghouse nuclear reactor technology. These new reactors will reinvigorate the nuclear power industrial base.

As a result of this historic agreement, nuclear energy deployment will be a central pillar of America’s program to maintain global leadership in nuclear power development and Artificial Intelligence (“AI”).

Howard Lutnick, Secretary for the United States Department of Commerce, said:

“Our administration is focussed on ensuring the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies. This historic partnership supports our national security objectives and enhances our critical infrastructure. Together with Westinghouse we will unleash American energy. This partnership embodies the bold vision of President Trump – to rebuild our energy sovereignty, create high-paying jobs, and drive America to the forefront of the nuclear renaissance.”

Chris Wright, Secretary for the United States Department of Energy, said:

“This historic partnership with America’s leading nuclear company will help unleash President Trump’s grand vision to fully energize America and win the global AI race. President Trump promised a renaissance of nuclear power, and now he is delivering.”

Connor Teskey, President of Brookfield Asset Management, said:

“This partnership with the U.S. Government will help unlock the potential that Westinghouse and nuclear energy can play to accelerate the growth of artificial intelligence in the United States, while meeting growing electricity demand and energy security needs at scale. Brookfield has more than half a trillion dollars invested in the critical infrastructure that underpins the U.S. economy, and we expect to double that investment in the next decade as we deliver on building the infrastructure backbone of artificial intelligence.”

Tim Gitzel, CEO of Cameco, said:

“Our highly successful partnership with Brookfield as owners of Westinghouse will be further strengthened through this collaboration with the U.S. Government. We expect this new partnership to support the global growth opportunities for both Westinghouse’s and Cameco’s nuclear products, services and technologies, adding significant long-term value for our stakeholders and enhancing energy, national and climate security around the world. As a strategic partner, Cameco is a secure and reliable western-based supplier of the uranium fuel needed to support the civilian deployment and long-term reliable operation of Westinghouse’s technology in the U.S. and globally.”....

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