Thursday, July 31, 2025

"What Are Trump’s Options If His Tariffs Are Ruled Unlawful?"

 From Bloomberg, July 31:

In rolling out the most aggressive tariff regime in the US in nearly a century, President Donald Trump has leaned heavily on emergency powers that had never been used before to impose import taxes.

Two federal courts ruled in May that he wrongfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify sweeping “reciprocal” duties targeting America’s trading partners, as well as separate levies aimed at China, Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration has appealed both decisions and oral arguments for one case are scheduled for July 31 at the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

The IEEPA tariffs remain in effect for now and the appeals process is likely to go all the way to the Supreme Court. If they’re ultimately deemed unlawful, the vast majority of the tariffs Trump has imposed so far in his second term could come undone.

But there are other means by which his tariffs campaign could continue. While the Constitution gives Congress the power to levy taxes and duties, lawmakers have delegated some of their authority to the executive branch through a number of statutes. These laws give Trump at least five fallback options to try to justify his tariffs....

 ***

....In general, these alternatives come with more limits and procedural restrictions, meaning there’s less leeway for Trump to impose tariffs virtually immediately and set the rates as high as he chooses.

“The difference between them is how much process they require,” said Ted Murphy, co-leader of the global arbitration, trade and advocacy practice at law firm Sidley Austin. “Why they chose IEEPA, I think in part, was because it comes with no required process. It’s a determination that the president can make on his or her own initiative: There’s no hearing, there’s no report, there’s no nothing.”

Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962

What it permits:

Section 232 gives the president power to use tariffs to regulate the import of goods on national security grounds.

Limitations:

These tariffs can’t be imposed instantly — the president can only act after an investigation by the Commerce Department determines that importing these products threatens to impair national security. After a probe is initiated, the Commerce Secretary must report the conclusions to the president within 270 days.

Read more: What to Know About the Legal Battle Over Trump’s Tariffs

Unlike the blanket tariffs Trump imposed using IEEPA, Section 232 is designed to be applied to imports in individual sectors, rather than from entire countries. There’s no cap on the level of the duties or their duration.

Current uses:

Trump used Section 232 to set tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in 2018 during his first term in office. He resumed his focus on these two industrial metals upon returning to the White House, leaning on the findings of the 2018 investigations to impose 50% tariffs. He also introduced levies on imports of automobiles and auto parts based on the conclusions of a Section 232 investigation completed in 2019.

Trump directed the Commerce Department in February to open a Section 232 investigation into copper imports and after receiving the findings announced that a 50% tax would be charged on deliveries of semi-finished and so-called derivative copper products from Aug. 1.

There could be more Section 232 tariffs on the way. The Commerce Department still has open investigations into the national security effects of imports of timber and lumber, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, trucks, critical minerals, commercial aircraft and jet engines, polysilicon (a key raw material for solar panels), and unmanned aircraft systems.

Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974

What it permits:

Section 201 authorizes the president to impose tariffs if an increase in imports is causing or threatening serious injury to American manufacturers.

Limitations:

Section 201 tariffs can’t be rolled out immediately either. The US International Trade Commission must first conduct an investigation and has 180 days after a petition is filed to deliver its report to the president. Unlike the Section 232 probes, the ITC is required to hold public hearings and solicit public comments. Section 201 is also focused at the industry level rather than broad taxes on all imports from trading partners.

The tariffs are capped at 50% above the rate of any existing duties. They can be imposed for an initial period of four years and extended to a maximum of eight years. If the levies are in place for more than a year, they must be phased down at regular intervals.

Current uses:

Trump used Section 201 to place tariffs on imports of solar cells and modules, as well as residential washing machines in 2018. The solar tariffs were extended and modified by President Joe Biden; the washing machine tariffs expired in 2023....

....MUCH MORE 

"Amazon tops Q2 estimates with $167.7B in revenue, $19.2B in profits; AWS up 17% to $30.9B" (AMZN)

 From Seattle's own, GeekWire, July 31:

Amazon beat estimates for its second quarter earnings with $167.7 billion in revenue, up 13% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.68, up from $1.26 in the year-ago period.

Wall Street expected $162.1 billion in revenue, and earnings per share of $1.33.

Despite topping expectations, Amazon shares were down more than 3% in after-hours trading.

The results provide a snapshot of Amazon’s business as the company invests heavily in its cloud computing business to fuel AI-related efforts and navigates economic headwinds within its retail division.

Amazon Web Services reported $30.8 billion in revenue for Q2, up 17% year-over-year — in line with analyst estimates.

  • The company makes most of its operating profits from AWS — about $10.1 billion in the second quarter, more than half Amazon’s total operating income of $19.2 billion.
  • Google and Microsoft also reported strong results for their respective cloud units this month.
  • Amazon said earlier this year it expects to increase capital expenditures to more than $100 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024, with a majority going toward building out capacity for AI in AWS.

Online store sales totaled $61.4 billion, up 11%....

....MUCH MORE 

The market is not liking it in very early after-hours trade, down $6.82 (2.91%) after trading  $3.92 higher during the regular session.

Earlier at GeekWire (July 30) - Amazon Q2 earnings preview: AI bets, cloud growth, and tariff changes in the spotlight

 

More to come. 

"Microsoft and Meta’s earnings are making every part of the AI supply chain surge" (Ride the Bubble) MSFT; META; NVDA

Here at Ouroboros Group we believe a self-referential vortex of strange loops is the key to exceptional market depravity and thus dream demon returns at rates essentially double those of typical simple ouroboros techniques and paradigms.
https://yallambie.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/ouroboros.jpg

—from 2018's Unicorns Backing Their Own VCs? Welcome to Peak Tech

More on cousin marriage in September 2024's "ChatBots Are Not The Be-All And End-All Of Artificial Intelligence". 

From Sherwood News, July 31:

The AI capex tree is growing to the sky, lifting profit expectations for a host of companies. 

I didn’t hear no bell.

Two knockout earnings reports from tech heavyweights, Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META), aren’t just causing their stocks to soar this morning — they’re lifting the entire AI complex.

These companies are blowing away analysts’ expectations in large part because of their AI capabilities. And if something is making you money, you’re willing to invest even more into it. Especially if some recent tax tweaks are making that even easier to finance.

Microsoft’s guidance of $30 billion in capex for the current quarter implies a run rate of $120 billion for fiscal 2026. Meta hinted that fiscal 2026 business investment could approach the $100-billion mark.

Zuckerberg? We know he’ll spend billions on just about anything. Nadella? Well, that’s a different story. Outside the DeepSeek freak-out, perhaps the top source of worries about an AI capex slowdown this year centered around the cloud giant maybe having too many data centers.

The AI tree of capex is growing to the sky — and this tree's branches are poised to grow even closer to the sun very soon, as it doesn’t yet incorporate this recent guidance from these two hyperscalers.

All that capex is the earnings of other major companies. And we’re seeing the impact of this continued commitment to spending billions upon billions rippling through the AI supply chain in premarket trading....

....MUCH MORE 

As reiterated in January 7's:
"Everything (retail) Nvidia Announced at CES 2025"
Reminder: We believe AI is a bubble and have made the decision to ride the bubble.

June 18, 2024: Nvidia's Financial Dominance (NVDA)

For the last year we have been referring to the AI phenomena as a bubble, perhaps not so much in financial terms but rather in terms of the psychology, the speculative frenzy. It's true in Nvidia's case, the stock could be cut in half and still be discounting the future with a 2-3% discount factor i.e. 33 to 50 times free cash flow.

However! Despite this we have been pitching a "Ride the Bubble" approach to the stock for over a year (we have an almost full decade with this one but it was in the last thirteen months that we thought it bubblelicious). Here's a July 1, 2023 post:

....So, we are faced with the decision whether-or-not to play a dangerous little game, riding the bubble knowing full well it is a bubble, or retiring to the sidelines.
For now one of our favorite economists with one of our favorite stories.

Here's the version hosted at MIT:
By PETER TEMIN AND HANS-JOACHIM VOTH
This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare’s Bank, a fledgling West End London bank, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock: it was profitable to “ride the bubble.” Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by such institutional factors as restrictions on short sales or agency problems...

The two most important parts of the paper "II. Hoare’s Trading Performance" and "III. Causes of Success" are definitely worth a couple minutes....

***** 

....We'll have more on the big stories, autonomous vehicles, agentic AI and humanoid robots later today.

Mr. Huang believes they are each trillion dollar+ addressable markets.
*We reiterated the ride the bubble pitch a few more times, despite some trepidation. 
note: stock prices should be divided by 10 to adjust for the most recent stock split.

January 19, 2024 at $594.91 "AI: Lessons From The South Sea Bubble". 

February 6, 2024:

Nvidia Collapses (gives back half yesterday's gains) plus Isaac Newton and Daniel Defoe do a drive by (NVDA)

The stock is down $11.87, so a little less than half yesterday's up-move. $681.45 last after trading as low as $663.00 (down $30.31 and almost the entire Monday $31.72 up-move.) Unfortunately there is a gap on the chart at $660 so it didn't completely fill. Nervous-making....

By-the-bye, that $660 ($66, new style) is the "cut in half" number.

March 6, 2024:

Earlier this morning the stock got to $889.68 and we are still pitching the "ride the bubble" approach—up $220 since the last mention, Feb. 6—but that could change anywhere between today and the end of the NVDA GTC conference (Mar. 21)....

If interested in some of our history with the big dog there are links embedded in January 2024's "Nvidia expands its reach in China’s electric vehicle sector" (NVD 

Finally, as Adam Smith put it in his book on the 'sixties bull market, The Money Game:

“Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the
wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this
freezes us. All of these kids but one will be broke, and that one will be the multi-
millionaire, the Arthur Rock of the new generation. There is always one, and
maybe we will find him.”

—As seen in February 2024's "JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon On The Business Case For AI: "This Is Not Hype" (JPM)

Inflation: Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator UP 0.3% For June; Up 2.6% YoY (PCE)

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 31:

Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025

Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.

Disposable Personal Income, Outlays, and Saving

The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected increases in government social benefits to persons and in compensation. 

The $69.9 billion increase in current-dollar PCE reflected increases of $40.1 billion in spending on services and $29.9 billion in spending on goods.

Changes in Monthly Consumer Spending, June 2025

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3 percent.

Percent Change in PCE Price Indexes from Month One Year Ago

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago....

....MUCH MORE 

For what it's worth, the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast, updated through July 30 had estimated +0.24% Month-over-Month headline and  +0.21% core. The Year-over-Year guesses were +2.47% headline and 2.66% core.

"Quanta Services beats Q2 expectations with record revenue, raises 2025 guidance" (PWR)

From Investing.com, July 31: 

HOUSTON - Quanta Services , Inc. (NYSE:PWR) reported second quarter adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share, slightly above analyst expectations of $2.46, as the infrastructure services provider benefited from strong demand across its business segments.

Revenue reached a record $6.8 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $6.57 billion and representing a 21% increase from $5.59 billion in the same quarter last year.

The company’s shares edged down 0.51% in pre-market trading following the announcement....

....MUCH MORE 

Here's the press release at the company: 

QUANTA SERVICES REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2025 RESULTS

The stock is down $3.11 at $408.00. Here's the last month of price action via TradingView:

 

Capital Markets: "Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So"

From Marc to Market: 

Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us that Fed Chair Powell referred to downside risks more than upside risks. The dollar's pullback today has been limited, and the consolidation looks more like the breath that refreshes rather than the end of the short covering rally that began at the start of the month. President Trump announced a several new tariff schedules as the August 1 deadline looms. Note too that the arguments in the appeal case that challenge the legality of the reciprocal tariffs will be heard today. Despite stronger than expected economic data, the yen is the weakest in the G10. The BOJ stood pat as expected. The dollar is trading above the 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-February. 

Outside of Japan and Taiwan, the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, led by more than 1% drops in Hong Kong and China mainland. Disappointing PMI data appeared to weigh on activity. Europe's Stoxx 600 is nursing small losses, while strong earnings by Microsoft and Meta is helping lift US index futures. Nasdaq futures are trading about 1.3% higher and the S&P 500 futures are up almost 1%. Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-3 bp lower in Europe and the 10-year US Treasury yield is off nearly two basis points to around 4.35%. Gold has snapped back. It lost 1.5% yesterday, the most in a month, and is around 1% higher now to resurface above $3300. September WTI is consolidating after it reached a new high for the month yesterday near $70.50. It is near session lows (~$69.40) in late European morning turnover. 

USD: The Dollar Index rally was extended to almost 100.00 yesterday, its best level since the end of May....

....MUCH MORE 

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

The State of The Art In Commercial AI Videos

Germany's Dor Brothers make AI videos that after a couple seconds require no suspension of disbelief. All the characters are AI generated, there are no actors. The Dor Brothers' technique leaves just a hint of uncanny valley, enough that you won't go completely bonkers, but it's a close-run thing.

They are obviously conversant with the sociology they are representing. 
In the first video are a few of the influencer types to be found on the internet:
 

We first posted that vid during the June 2025 Los Angeles riots: In Light Of Recent Events, Influencers Speak Out

The second video takes aim at the AI crowd itself. Again, no actors, it's all AI. And it is wickedly on the mark.

AIdeology 


 

Here's their YouTube site and here is their home page.

If interested, a December 2023 post on what was coming, though it didn't know it would be The Dor Brothers:
"Meet the New Influencers: Artificial Intelligence"
Jobs the robots will do.... 

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Analysts React

"You idiot. Get back in there at once and sell, sell."

Oops, sorry. That was supposed to be the intro for today's action in copper.

From Yahoo Finance, July 30: 

In search of a rate cut.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting today. At a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, interest rates have been unchanged since the Fed's December 2024 meeting.

"Inflation remains elevated," the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in its statement. Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman both dissented, preferring a cut in the Fed funds rate.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell — under tough scrutiny from President Trump, who is demanding rate cuts — will undertake arguably his most important press conference.

Investors will be keyed in on whether Powell signals a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. If he doesn’t, pros say stocks could pull back a bit from records.

Attention will now turn to the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 21-23. This year's theme is "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," which, on paper, sets the stage for Powell to signal the timing of rate cuts.

“The gap between the July and September meetings is the longest in the Fed's calendar of eight FOMC meetings per year," said Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen. "The long gap between July and September meetings means the Fed will see several months worth of additional data and have plenty of opportunity to signal its intent in advance.”

Gapen continues to expect no rate cuts from the Fed this year.

Here is what Wall Street is saying about the closely watched Fed decision....

....MUCH MORE 

"Bessent Unleashes Treasury Buyback Overhaul In Major Step To Yield Curve Control, Doubles Down On Bill Dominance"

We may have to dust off the YCC playbook.

From ZeroHedge, July 30: 

In today's closely watched Quarterly Refunding Announcement on debt issuance - which to many was more important than the FOMC statement - the Treasury Department said at 8:30am ET that that it anticipates keeping the size of its note and bond auctions unchanged “for at least the next several quarters." And since that was the same guidance the Treasury has given since the start of last year, it leaves bills, which were the fulcrum security of Janet Yellen's Activist Treasury Issuance strategy so repeatedly penned by Scott Bessent, once again bearing the brunt of the government’s rising borrowing needs, although as the charts of Bill and Coupon issuance below show, the US is already pretty much at 10.... so these better go to 11. 

This means that the Treasury will rely more on the shortest-dated securities to fund the gaping federal deficit at least until 2026, after Treasury Secretary Bessent said last month that yields on longer-dated Treasuries were too high to consider boosting sales of such debt. In doing so he is implicitly endorsing the same strategy that he slammed when it took place under Janet Yellen. 

As we noted in our QRA preview, and as Bloomberg notes, Wall Street had varying views on what guidance the Treasury would provide. Wells Fargo expected a reiteration of the previous language. JPMorgan strategists said officials “perhaps” might lop off the “at least” qualification for the coming several quarters, while Stephen Stanley at Santander US Capital Markets said his best guess was the entire removal of the guidance.

In the end this is what the Treasury did say:

"Treasury believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and to the pace and duration of future SOMA redemptions.  Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters."

Which is nothing more than can kicking: “The longer debt managers wait to get started, the more difficult the job becomes” of preparing markets for bigger sales of interest-bearing debt, or coupons, Santander's Stanley wrote before the Wednesday announcement.

Turning to the actual refunding, as widely expected by dealers, the Treasury maintained the size of next week’s quarterly refunding auctions, which span 3-, 10- and 30-year maturities. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $125 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $89.8 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2025, both in line with estimates, and raising new cash of about $35.2 billion. The composition is as follows: 

  • 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, maturing August 15, 2028
  • 10-year note in the amount of $42 billion, maturing August 15, 2035 
  • 30-year bond in the amount of $25 billion, maturing August 15, 2055

The table below presents the actual auction sizes for the May to July 2025 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the August to October 2025 quarter. As one can see, the 3, 10 and 30Yr issuance sizes are identical as during the last refunding in May of 2025.

The Treasury also said it was continuing to nudge sales of some Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, higher in order to keep their share of the overall Treasury market stable. It announced the following adjustments:

  • A bump up of the September 10-year TIPS reopening auction to $19 billion
  • An increase of the October 5-year new issue TIPS auction to $26 billion

And since there was no surprise in the coupon issuance schedule, it means Bills will once again have to step up and fund the balance. As the Treasury wrote, "since the $5 trillion increase to the debt limit on July 4, Treasury has increased bill issuance to continue to finance the government and to gradually rebuild the cash balance over time to a level more consistent with its cash balance policy." As previously noted, Treasury anticipates that the cash balance will approach levels consistent with its policy in September.  Accordingly, "Treasury anticipates further marginal increases in short-dated Treasury bill auction sizes in the coming days and then maintaining sizes at or near those levels through the end of September. Additional increases to Treasury bill auction sizes are anticipated in October.  Treasury will carefully monitor market conditions and adjust its bill issuance plans as appropriate." 

Bessent had been among the most Republicans to criticize former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last year for artificially holding down sales of longer-term debt, saying it was an attempt to keep borrowing costs low before the election. And while Bills made up about 20% of the Treasuries market at the end of June, the ratio is now set to climb in the coming months as the Treasury continues to refrain from increasing note and bond issuance. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, an outside panel made up of dealers, investors and other market participants, last year recommended that bills average about 20% of total outstanding Treasuries over time.

Relying just on bills to fund the deficit would at some point make the ratio of those securities so large that it would introduce sharp volatility in the Treasury’s financing costs. It would also potentially force the department to set aside a bigger stockpile of cash in case of challenges in rolling over maturing bills on any given day.

For now, strategists say there’s ample demand for bills. Money-market funds are expected to keep growing, giving them the capacity to absorb part of the additional bill supply if those securities make up a bigger share of debt, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. The Fed may also emerge as a bigger buyer of bills as policymakers begin to discuss whether to tilt their bond portfolio toward shorter-duration securities. And Bessent has repeatedly pointed to stablecoins as a fresh source of demand. That's right: very soon Tether will become just as important as the Fed when it comes to funding the US government....

....MUCH MORE 

NYT: A Near-inexhaustible Source Of Energy

 If only we could harness this spin, the cost of electricity would drop to zero. 

The tweeter makes his living by attempting to teach financial literacy

Here's the story at the Wall Street Journal:

And at the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) 

National Weather Service: "There is no threat for tsunami impacts in North Dakota."

From the NWS:

"ADP: U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs in July" (average pay up 4.4% YoY)

From United Press International, July 30: 

Private sector employment leapt forward in the United States in July while pay gains held steady, according to a report by private payroll processor ADP on Wednesday.

Private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July, a reversal of June when jobs were at a 23,000 loss, a count revised from a previously announced loss of 33,000. Pay rose 4.4 % year-over-year overall, in line with past months, according to the labor market and employee performance research company's National Employment Report....

....MUCH MORE 

"It's not just Big Tech. Industrial stocks are on fire" (GEV; BA)

As we saw yesterday, old-line manufacturer GE Vernova is the second-best performing component of the S&P 500.*

From Yahoo Finance, July 29: 

The stock market is hitting new records — and Big Tech isn't the top performer.

The Industrials (XLI) sector has been on fire this year as it has outperformed the entire market to lead the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to all-time highs. The sector is up 16% year to date, outpacing Technology (XLK), which has risen 13%, and Utilities (XLU), up 11% over the same period

A boom in aerospace production, combined with AI-driven data center build-outs and investments in power infrastructure, has created a crop of Industrial highfliers. 

Yahoo Finance S&P 500 Sector ETF year to date on July 29, 2025.
Yahoo Finance S&P 500 Sector ETF year to date on July 29, 2025.

On Tuesday, Boeing (BA) posted better-than-expected quarterly results, signaling continued progress in its recovery. The aerospace giant's stock is up 28% year to date, trailing only AI chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI).

Shares of the aircraft maker, which is undergoing a turnaround plan, are up nearly 30% year to date and roughly 70% since the April lows.

The company has emerged as a major beneficiary of President Trump's dealmaking abroad, clinching its biggest order ever from Qatar Airways in May and securing a commitment from British Airways as part of a UK trade framework.

GE Aerospace (GE) also recently highlighted a growth in engine orders stemming from deals abroad. Shares of the engine maker have surged more than 60% year to date as revenue and earnings per share jumped more than 20% last quarter.

The outperformance of the Industrials sector underscores Trump's focus on beefing up manufacturing both through dealmaking and incentives within the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law earlier this month.

Tax incentives, including write-offs for capital expenditures and onshoring, are expected to be a tailwind for the sector.

"We think that the fiscal bill adds to some of the strength that industrials will see in the coming quarters," Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management Group, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.

"We think there is still a lot of momentum, we don't think we're in the late innings of industrials strength, we're probably in the middle innings though," he added.

Power generation for AI data centers and upgrades to the electrical grid have also driven a rally in shares of power equipment makers.

GE Vernova (GEV) stock is up more than 90% year to date as the manufacturer of natural gas turbines saw its order books balloon last quarter with strong demand from data centers....

....MORE 
 *July 29:

Yesterday's Earthquake Was The Sixth Strongest On Record

Following on "UPDATED—Massive Magnitude 8.8 Earthquake Off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula".

From The Watchers, July 30:

Powerful M8.8 earthquake and tsunami strike Kamchatka Peninsula, sixth strongest earthquake on record 

A powerful earthquake registered by the USGS as M8.8 hit near the coast of Kamchatka, Russia, at 23:24 UTC on July 29, 2025 (11:24 local time on July 30). The earthquake occurred at a depth of approximately 21 km (13 miles) and generated a Pacific-wide tsunami, prompting warnings, advisories, and evacuations across multiple countries and territories.

tsunami kamchatka russia after m8.8 earthquake on july 29 2025

Tsunami waves hit Kamchatka, Russia after M8.8 earthquake on July 29, 2025. Credit: Reuters (stillshot)

  • This is the largest earthquake in the world since the 2011 M9.0 Tōhoku, Japan earthquake
  • It is also the sixth-strongest earthquake ever recorded instrumentally and the strongest in Russia since the 1952 M9.0 Kamchatka earthquake
  • The last earthquake of similar magnitude was the M8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake in 2010
  • The earthquake generated a Pacific-wide tsunami, with waves up to 4 m (13 feet) recorded in Russia’s Kuril Islands....

....MUCH MORE 

"No more Achilles’ heel in hypersonics race? China zirconium find boosts reserve five-fold"

Just when you think you've got 'em on the zirconium ropes....

That's pretty much the history of commodities, and why "they're for tradin', not 'vestin'" as the old-time speculators used to say.*

From the South China Morning Post, July 27:

Chinese geologists discover massive supply of the rare metal mineral embedded in sandstone along ancient river and lake systems 

In a discovery that could reshape the global balance of strategic mineral supply, Chinese geologists have uncovered a huge zirconium deposit in the Kubai Basin, on the northern fringe of the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang – a deadly stretch of arid land that may now become a new driver of China’s hi-tech military ambitions.

The newly identified deposit, embedded within Cenozoic continental sedimentary layers dating to the Paleogene and Neogene periods, represents the first super-large zirconium resource ever discovered in a terrestrial, non-marine basin in China.

Unlike traditional zirconium sources – typically found along coastlines or within hard-rock igneous systems – this deposit formed through ancient river and lake systems that transported zircon grains over hundreds of kilometres from alkaline rock sources in the region, depositing them in deltaic and lacustrine environments.

The ore, hosted in loose to semi-consolidated gravelly medium-coarse sandstones, contains an estimated 2 million tonnes of zirconium dioxide, according to preliminary assessments.

It is four times the total reserve of China at present.

Zirconium alloys, prized for their exceptional resistance to heat, corrosion and neutron absorption, are fundamental in manufacturing scramjet combustion chambers, thermal protection tiles, nose cones and guidance components.

As the United States, Russia and China race to deploy operational hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles, control over zirconium supply chains has quietly become as critical as access to rare earth elements.

For decades, the search for zirconium has been bound by geological orthodoxy: zircon sands were believed to originate only from the weathering and wave-driven concentration of primary rocks along shorelines.

Mines from Australia to India have capitalised on these coastal placers, forming the backbone of global supply. Despite China being the world’s largest consumer of zirconium – using over 53 per cent of global output in ceramics, nuclear reactors and advanced aerospace applications – it has long been at the mercy of foreign markets.

With domestic reserves previously pegged at a mere 500,000 tonnes – less than 1 per cent of world’s total – and over 90 per cent of supply imported, zirconium has been a glaring strategic vulnerability.

“Zirconium is one of the most critically scarce strategic and essential rare metal minerals in China,” wrote the project team led by Liu Bing, senior engineer with Xinjiang’s Geological Bureau, in a peer-reviewed paper published in the Chinese journal Earth Science in June.

“As zirconium has been classified as a critical strategic resource by multiple countries, issues surrounding resource security are becoming increasingly prominent and the imbalance between supply and demand is growing ever more severe.

“The discovery of this deposit not only significantly increases China’s zirconium resource reserves, but also promises to transform the nation’s supply landscape for zirconium,” added Liu and his colleagues.

The Kubai find not only quintuples China’s known zircon resources but also shatters long-standing geological paradigms. The discovery shows that zirconium can accumulate in vast quantities far from the sea, within stable continental basins, through fluvial and lacustrine processes previously dismissed as impossible.

This means that geologists are no longer confined to the coastline. It opens up entire continental interiors – previously ignored – as viable hunting grounds.

The deposit’s average grade exceeds 0.2 per cent zircon, with high concentrations of zircon and associated titanium minerals. The ore is amenable to opencast mining, low in energy-intensive processing requirements and located near existing rail and highway infrastructure, according to the study.....

....MUCH MORE
*
February 2015
The Most Important Thing To Know About Commodities Is...
You must remember this
A kiss is still a kiss
A sigh is still (just) a sigh
The fundamental things apply
As time goes by...

The darn things are mean reverting. It's not rocket surgery.

See, for example:
Société Générale's Dylan Grice-"Commodities: ‘Their Expected Long-Run Real Return is 0%’"
Commodities: "The Case for Human Ingenuity"
Commodity Prices Tend to be Mean-Reverting (cotton)

"Elon Musk and Tesla’s $30 Trillion AI Supersonic Tsunami" (TSLA, ELON)

From Barron's July 27/28:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk offered some pretty eye-popping aspirations for the company during remarks on Saturday.

Musk made a virtual appearance at the Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley 2025 “Takeover” party in San Mateo, Calif. The group is, essentially, a fan club and community for Tesla and Musk enthusiasts. Its Takeover event draws attendees from all over the world, according to organizers.

The headline from the event might just have been an admittedly aspirational comment about $30 trillion a year in humanoid robot revenue.

Tesla is using its artificial intelligence and manufacturing capabilities to build its Optimus humanoid robots. Version three of “Optimus is the right design to go to volume production,” said Musk. Tesla plans to make a few hundred of those by the end of 2025. Originally, Tesla planned to have a few thousand, but the new design slowed things down a little. Tesla still plans to ramp production higher in 2026.

Tesla is betting big on AI, using it for robots and to train its self-driving cars. Robots are “probably the world’s biggest product…There’s a market for 20 billion robots,” said Musk. “Hypothetically, if Tesla was making one billion of these a year…maybe on the order of $30,000, I’m just guessing here, that’s $30 trillion in revenue.”

It’s an incredible prediction. “Long way to go between here and making one billion robots a year,” added Musk.

There isn’t a significant market for humanoid robots yet. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said that robots can become the world’s largest market. (Housing, consumer electronics, and cars are three of the largest today.)

The world spends “what $50 trillion on human labor a year now?” says Futurum chief market strategist Shay Boloor. Useful robots are “pretty disruptive if you can conquer it.”

Musk, for his part, doesn’t fear the labor disruption, believing it will end up creating an age of abundance with hard labor essentially eliminated. “I’ve never seen any technology advance as fast as AI,” said Musk, describing it as a supersonic tsunami.

It’s all pie in the sky for now, but quite a vision of the future....

....MUCH MORE 

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Meanwhile In Bali, Criminal Enterprise

From the Wall Street Journal, July 28:

The Criminal Enterprise Run by Monkeys
A cabal of furry thieves snatch iPhones and other valuables from visitors to a temple in Bali—and trade them for mangos 

PECATU, Indonesia—At a cliff-side temple on the tropical island of Bali, an unexpected group of criminals is running one of the world’s most sophisticated scam operations.

Every week, they steal dozens of phones, wallets and other valuables from tourists in broad daylight and exchange them for handsome rewards. It’s been going on for decades and nobody’s been able to stop it. 

The culprits? Long-tailed macaques.

“The monkeys have taken over the temple,” said Jonathan Hammé, a tourist from London whose sunglasses were stolen by a monkey during a visit last year. “They’re running a scam.”

On the southern tip of the Indonesian vacation hot spot known for its beaches, tourists flock to Uluwatu Temple for traditional fire dance shows and panoramic views at sunset with the Indian Ocean crashing below. The Balinese Hindu site dates back to at least the 11th century and the roughly 600 monkeys that inhabit it are considered by locals to be sacred guardians of the temple.

Primate researchers have found that the macaques steal belongings to use as currency to trade with humans for food. Some monkeys can distinguish between objects we highly value (smartphones, prescription glasses, wallets) and those we don’t (hats, flip flops, hair clips)—and will barter accordingly, according to a University of Lethbridge team that spent years filming the macaques and analyzing hundreds of hours of footage.

In other words, the monkeys have “unprecedented economic decision-making processes,” the researchers wrote in a 2021 academic paper. Talk about monkey business.

When Hammé arrived at the temple with his wife, his tour guide handed him a stick, saying he would need it to fend off the monkeys.

“I said, ‘What do you mean?’” recalled Hammé, 64. “I thought he was giving me a stick because he thought I was too old.”

The stick was no use. While Hammé was admiring the vista, a monkey jumped on his back, snatched his favorite sunglasses off his face and vanished.

He found it in a tree playing with his sunglasses. A different tour guide handed him some Oreos and Hammé waved the cookies at the thief. It jumped down, grabbed the Oreos and tossed the sunglasses. They were bent.

“I didn’t expect that the monkeys would be operating like a gang taking everything,” he said. “It was like—have you seen ‘Oliver Twist’?”

Many cases require the help of the temple’s monkey handlers, called “pawang,” who negotiate with the furry hostage-takers. They offer fruits such as bananas, mangos, rambutan and mangosteen in exchange for the stolen items. In rare cases, they use raw chicken eggs, highly coveted by the monkeys.

Ketut Ariana, a 52-year-old who has been working for the temple as a monkey handler for two decades, said the animals steal dozens of items a week, including five to 10 smartphones a day....

....MUCH MORE, including video of the miscreants in action. 

UPDATED—Massive Magnitude 8.8 Earthquake Off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula

From the U.S. Geological Survey:

M 8.8 - 119 km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia

Time
2025-07-29 16:24:50 (UTC-07:00)
Location
52.530°N 160.165°E
Depth
20.7 km 

....MUCH MORE (also on blogroll at right: USGS) 

And yes, the tsunamis are rolling:  https://www.tsunami.gov/

UPDATE:  Powerful quake in Russia's Far East causes tsunami, Japan and Hawaii order evacuations

"EPA proposing to repeal climate ‘endangerment finding’ Tuesday"

If this action survives court challenges it is a very big deal. 

From The Hill, July 29:

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will propose Tuesday to repeal its landmark 2009 finding that greenhouse gases pose a threat to the public.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the timing of the proposed repeal during an appearance on the conservative “Ruthless” podcast Tuesday morning. He had previously said last week that he would axe the finding.

“Later today, we’re going to be making a big announcement in Indiana,” he said Tuesday morning.

 “Something that happened back in the Obama administration in 2009 was that they put forward this regulation called the ‘endangerment finding,’” Zeldin said.

“Repealing it will be the largest deregulatory action in the history of America,” he added. 

The finding is not just symbolic: It also represents a legal justification for climate regulations, especially rules governing the auto industry that have significant environmental and economic ramifications....

....MUCH MORE  

Previously:

July 24, 2025 -  "EPA drafts rule to strike down landmark climate finding"

March 12, 2025 -  Carbon Dioxide Regulation: "EPA to Reconsider Legal Basis of US Climate Change Rules"

From the Endangerment Finding to the Tailoring rule.
Monday, December 7, 2009
01:15 P.M. EST "U.S. EPA to make 'significant climate announcement'"
From Reuters:The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said Monday it would make a "significant climate announcement" at 1:15 p.m. EST (1815 GMT).

The EPA has been expected to issue a final ruling that greenhouse gases endanger human health. That finding would allow the agency to issue rules to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, even if Congress fails to pass legislation to cut U.S. emissions of the heat-trapping gases that scientists say cause global warming.

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson told Reuters last month the endangerment finding was being considered by the Office of Management and Budget and that the agency was hoping for an expedited review....
The EPA's Tailoring Rule which is downstream from the Endangerment Finding affects, one way or another, around 20% of GDP.

If interested see also:

July 3, 2022:
Background On The Supreme Court's EPA/CO2 Ruling: The Administrative State

Well, I suppose it's time I weighed in on Epstein

Having just read "How Toxic Content Drives User Engagement on Social Media" from the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business' Stigler Center's ProMarket newsletter I see we are running the blog counter to accepted platform wisdom.

The vast majority of social media platforms’ revenue comes from advertising. This business model relies on getting users to view or click on as many ads as possible. For this to happen, social media algorithms need to give users the type of content that makes them spend time on the platform and engage with ads.  

This business model naturally raises concerns about whether platforms are incentivized to prioritize engaging but potentially harmful content. These concerns stem from seminal work in social psychology showing that negative events and emotions disproportionately impact human behavior. Thus, toxic content that is rude, disrespectful or hostile, though in principle unpleasant, might paradoxically drive more engagement....

Return with me now to the glory days of the dotcom boom, the summer of 1999 when all the marketers and consultants said the key to online success was a clickbait headline and tarpit content to attract and engage "sticky eyeballs":  

I think the Department of Justice should impanel a new "Epstein" grand jury.

That's it, that's all I've got. 

The predicate of course would be anything that Ghislaine Maxwell said over this past weekend. 

I understand that some very powerful, very wealthy, very influential people might be opposed to this idea but it should be done.

So bring Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, Les Wexner, Ehud Barack And Reid Hoffman, a couple of Bronfmans, Alan Dershowitz, Mort Zuckerman, Leon Black,  Peter Mandelson and Prince Andrew, Woody Allen, Bill Gates and Noam Chomsky, bring them before a grand jury and ask them what they know.

It's all very private, the only people even aware of what is said in a grand jury are those in the courtroom so the reputational damage to the innocent is minimized and let's just get to the bottom of this.

"Not Even Two Downgrades Could Take Down GE Vernova Stock" (GEV)

 When the analyst moves were first being reported prior to yesterday's regular-trade open, the stock dropped a bit over 1%.

Then, during the course of the day the stock rallied back to close up $3.07 (+0.48%) at $647.66:

 

From Barron's Updated July 28, 2025, 4:27 pm EDT / Original July 28, 2025, 9:05 am EDT: 

Trees don’t grow to the sky, they say, and GE Vernova  GEV +0.48% stock has risen too far for two Wall Street analysts. Still, two downgrades for shares of the power-generation technology company couldn’t keep the stock down on Monday.

Still, the move was modest to start. GE Vernova stock was down 0.5% at $641.35 in early Monday trading, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.1% and down 0.1%, respectively.

Coming into Monday trading, GE Vernova stock was up a whopping 24% over the past month, up 96% year to date, and up 272% over the past 12 months.

“Gas and grid continue to impress, but downgrade to [Hold from Buy] on
valuation,” wrote Mizuho analyst Maheep Mandloi in a Monday report.

Gas is the company’s natural gas power-generation turbine business. Orders in the second quarter, reported this past week, were up 42% year over year, and profit margins improved to 16.4% from 13.8% in the second quarter of 2024. Grid is the company’s electric-grid technology business. Sales grew 23% year over year in the second quarter, and profit margins improved to 14.6% from 7.2%.

Things are good right now, but “valuation looks stretched after [the] year-to-date move,” added Mandloi. His target price, however, jumped to $670 from $412.

His downgrade comes as Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha cut his rating on GE Vernova stock to Hold from Buy on Monday. He removed his $600 price target.

“The stock’s valuation fully reflects even the substantially above-consensus estimates that we are publishing as part of today’s note,” wrote Osha. “Valuation is still admittedly attractive if investors are willing to focus on 2029 and beyond, but considering the wait required to get to that outcome, combined with the stock’s substantially higher
valuation….we no longer find GEV attractive from a risk/return standpoint.”

Osha projects 2027 earnings per share of $18.79, up from $18.01. The Wall Street consensus estimate stands at $17.74, according to FactSet.

At recent levels, GE Vernova stock was trading at about 34 times Osha’s estimated 2027 earnings. The S&P 500 trades at almost 23 times estimated earnings forecast for the next 12 months.....

....MUCH MORE 

Barron's also had an interesting article on GEV's Teutonic Doppelgänger, Siemens Energy: 

Missed the GE Vernova Surge? This Peer Stock Looks Ready to Rise. 

Which we last mentioned July 9 and June 30:

MIT, Siemens, GE Vernova To Collaborate On Manufacturing Technologies

*****

....Interesting that GEV and Siemens are collaborating in that GE Vernova is the largest steam (electricity generation) turbine manufacturer in the world and Siemens is either #2 or #3, depending on who is counting.  

June 30 - Electricity Generation: "US gas-fired turbine wait times as much as seven years; costs up sharply" (GEV)

As noted introducing June 15's "Electricity: "Report Says 130 New Gas-Fired Power Projects Proposed in Texas" (GEV)":

If all these proposals go forward GE Vernova would probably have to buy Siemens' gas turbine business just to keep the backlog to fifteen years or less. 

For what it's worth GE Vernova's stock hit an all-time high this morning ($545.63) and has more than tripled since it was spun out of General Electric. $541.26 last, up $11.26 (+2.12%)

In today's (July 29) premarket trade the stock is down $0.03 (-0.00%) at $647.90.

Investor's Business Daily Wrote A Love Letter To GE Vernova (GEV)

This was written prior to yesterday's pair of analyst downgrades (more on those to come)

From IBD, July 25:

Top Performing S&P 500 Stock Is Proclaimed 'Best Name In AI Power' Following Earnings

Top S&P 500 component GE Vernova (GEV) is now seen as the "best name in AI power theme" after the company on Wednesday cleared second-quarter earnings views and raised parts of its outlook. GE Vernova is now the stock market's second-best performing S&P 500 stock so far in 2025.

William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer on Friday wrote that the S&P 500 giant is the "best name" in the AI power industry and that GE Vernova is "firing on all cylinders" coming out of its second-quarter earnings release.

"Energy and power infrastructure are the key bottlenecks to AI and GE Vernova is best-positioned to benefit from the demand inflection, which supports the multiple premium in our view," Dorsheimer said.

The analyst added that the S&P 500 stock "has an industry-leading position in natural gas turbines and nuclear" with its exposure to small modular reactors, or SMRs, and that both energy sources are "favored by us to solve the near-, medium- and long-term energy demand problem."

"We encourage investors to have this name as a core holding," Dorsheimer said.

William Blair also noted Friday that GE Vernova's natural gas turbine slot reservations are filling up through 2028, and that it added nine gigawatts of new contracts in Q2 for a total backlog of 55 gigawatts.

Dorsheimer highlighted that GE Vernova is also seeing "nuclear momentum" with five gigawatts of capacity and that it is "leading in SMR technology" with its customer Ontario Power Generation receiving a license a SMR online in 2029.

GE Vernova stock advanced 3.3% to 644.72, during Friday 's stock market, hitting a new all-time high of 651.22 intraday. Overall, the S&P 500 stock ended Friday's stock market up more than 12% on the week.

GE Vernova Earnings 
The analyst comments come two days after GE Vernova reported Q2 earnings of $1.73 per share, up from 8 cents a year ago, with revenue increasing 11% to $9.1 billion.

GE Vernova also lifted its 2025 outlook. The S&P 500 component now expects revenue at the higher end of its $36 billion to $37 billion range. It raised its free cash flow forecast to range from $3 billion to $3.5 billion, compared to its prior estimate for $2 billion to $2.5 billion.

CEO Scott Strazik called Q2 a "productive" quarter and said that GE Vernova is positioned to accelerate growth and margin expansion.

"We are at the beginning of an investment supercycle into more reliable baseload power, grid infrastructure and decarbonization solutions," Strazik said in the release. "Our near-term results are improving, but more importantly, our long-term potential is accelerating faster."

S&P 500: GE Vernova Stock Performance 
At Thursday's stock market close, GE Vernova stock had gained 96%. That places it in the stock market's top two best performing S&P 500 components for 2025. Palantir (PLTR) is the only other S&P 500 stock with a better year-to-date gain....

....MUCH MORE 

Monday, July 28, 2025

"Nvidia Orders 300,000 H20 Chips From TSMC Due to Robust China Demand, Sources Say" (NVDA; TSM)

A Reuters exclusive via US News & World Report, July 28: 

BEIJING/SHANGHAI/NEW YORK (Reuters) -Nvidia placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer TSMC last week, two sources said, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile.

The Trump administration this month allowed Nvidia to resume sales of H20 graphics processing units (GPUs) to China, reversing an effective ban imposed in April designed to keep advanced AI chips out of Chinese hands due to national security concerns.

Nvidia developed the H20 specifically for the Chinese market after U.S. export restrictions on its other AI chipsets were imposed in late 2023. The H20 does not have as much computing power as Nvidia's H100 or its new Blackwell series sold in markets outside China.

The new orders with Taiwan's TMSC would add to existing inventory of 600,000 to 700,000 H20 chips, according to the sources who were not authorised to speak to media and declined to be identified.

For comparison purposes, Nvidia sold around 1 million H20 chips in 2024, according to U.S. research firm SemiAnalysis.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said during a trip to Beijing this month that the level of H20 orders it received would determine whether production would begin again, adding that any restart to the supply chain would take nine months.

The Information reported after Huang's trip that Nvidia had told customers it had limited H20 stocks available and it had no immediate plans to restart wafer production for the GPU.

Nvidia needs to obtain export licenses from the U.S. government to ship the H20 chips. It said in mid-July it had been assured by authorities that it would get them soon.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has yet to approve those licenses, one of the sources and a third source said.

Nvidia on Monday declined to comment on the new orders or the status of its license applications. TSMC declined to comment. The U.S. Commerce Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment....

....MUCH MORE 

 This move on Nvidia's part raises a few questions with one being top-of-mind:

Can we infer anything about the uptake of Huawei's very advanced Ascend AI 910D processor and the just announced (July 26) Huawei CloudMatrix 384 AI System.

This is the sort of stuff that Mr. Huang was referring to a few months ago:

Nvidia CEO On AI Competition: China is right behind us, We’re very, very close

And via NBC10, Boston:

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Wednesday that China is "not behind" in artificial intelligence, and that Huawei is "one of the most formidable technology companies in the world."....

....Huawei, which is on a U.S. trade blacklist, is reportedly working on an AI chip of its own for Chinese customers.

"They're incredible in computing and network technology, all these essential capabilities to advance AI," Huang said. "They have made enormous progress in the last several years."....

Which raises a second question. Is this story, here via UPI July 28, but also available on some of the tech sites, is this story already moot?

Security experts warn against selling Nvidia AI chips to China
In letter to Commerce secretary, they say H20 AI chips can be used to support China's military.  

Twenty national security experts and former government officials are urging the Trump administration to reverse a decision earlier this month to let Nvidia resume selling H20 AI chips in China.

They wrote a letter Monday to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, saying that the decision announced two weeks ago was a "strategic misstep that endangers the United States' economic and military edge in artificial intelligence (AI) -- an area increasingly seen as divisive in the 21st-century global leadership."....

....MUCH MORE 

As noted exiting from May 18's "U.S. Still Mulling Whether To Allow Nvidia To Sell One Million+ Most Powerful Chips To UAE": 

On the one hand with that many chips floating around that part of the world there is no way to keep a bunch of them from ending up in China. On the other hand, Nvidia's development cycle is focused on releasing new, more powerful chips every 12 -14 months meaning the current smoking hot H100 chips will have been superseded by two cycles at the end of the contract period. 

The first point, that chips will get to China is borne out by the recent news that $1 billion worth of chips had been smuggled into China in three months after the export ban on the more powerful Nvidia chips. 

note: the smuggled chips were not the ones destined for the UAE.

The second point is that the real technology transfer deterrent is in the pace of NVDA's development cycle. 
Although there are hiccups—most recently server racks overheating from the amazing amount of electricity flowing through the systems—the overarching goal is an almost metronomic rhythm to the development of new chips such that the H20s will be out-dated in under 2 1/2 years.