From Barron's, July 21:
It feels as if every quarterly earnings report is a big deal for Tesla. And, yes, the coming second-quarter report, due Wednesday, is important for the electric-vehicle maker.
A lot has happened. Investors want to know about AI, car sales, CEO Elon Musk’s time, his political ambitions, and how changing U.S. policy might impact the auto maker.
Tesla shares were up 1.4% in early trading Monday at $334.48, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both up 0.3%.
For the quarter, Wall Street expects earnings per share of about 39 cents from sales of $22.1 billion, according to a FactSet poll of analysts’ estimates. A year ago, Tesla reported earnings per share of 52 cents from sales of $25.5 billion. Sales and earnings are set to sink along with vehicle sales. Tesla sold about 384,000 cars in the second quarter of 2025, down 13.5% year over year.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo is taking a “cautious stance ahead of [a] busy EPS report.” He sees risk to full year earnings estimates arising from Tesla’s delay to its lower-priced vehicle, which was supposed to be unveiled in the first half of 2025, and the loss of the federal EV purchase tax credit that President Donald Trump eliminated in his tax bill.
Both things could further reduce sales volumes. Kallo rates shares Hold and has a $320 price target for shares.
RBC analyst Tom Narayan rates shares Buy and has a $319 target. Narayan still believes that a lower-priced car is coming and can help boost sales later in the year. Investors will have to see what Tesla management says about new models....
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