Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Capital Markets: "German Factory Orders Plunge 5.4% and Retail Sales Defy Expectations for a Gain"

Yikes!

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer today. Underlying sentiment is constructive, and yesterday's JOLTS and ISM reports were stronger than expected, playing on the American exceptionalism meme. The disruptive nature of the new US administration was on full display, as Trump declined to rule out the use of military force to secure Greenland and Panama and continued to press with absorbing Canada. He demanded NATO members boost military spending to 5%, which the US does not meet. Even renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America was suggested. To many, given the aggressiveness of Russia and China, and Iran's nuclear ambitions, threat to US allies is a distraction that will aid America's rivals.

The sell-off in US equities yesterday appeared to weigh on Asia Pacific markets today. South Korea, Australia, and Singapore were exceptions, and even a large share buyback announcement by Tencent, that was blacklisted by the US Pentagon, was unable bolster the Hang Seng today. However, Europe's Stoxx 600 is higher for the third consecutive session, and US index futures are firmer. European benchmark 10-year yields are a bit firmer, while the 10-year Treasury yield is little changed near 4.68%. The US finishes this week's coupon sales with the 30-year bond auction today. The yield is slightly above 4.90% today and was last above 5% in November 2023. Gold is firm but below yesterday's ~$2664 high. February WTI gapped higher and reached nearly $75.30, its best level since last October when it peaked slightly below $76.50. The API estimated that US private sector inventories fell for the seventh consecutive week, the longest drawdown in three years....

....MUCH MORE