Wednesday, August 13, 2025

"OpenAI's GPT-5 looks less like AI evolution and more like cost cutting"

From The Register, August 13: 

Gotta pay for all those GPUs somehow

Comment For all the superlative-laden claims, OpenAI's new top model appears to be less of an advancement and more of a way to save compute costs — something that hasn't exactly gone over well with the company's most dedicated users.

As the flag bearer that kicked off the generative AI era, OpenAI is under considerable pressure not only to demonstrate technological advances, but also to justify its massive, multi-billion-dollar funding rounds by showing its business is growing.

To do that, OpenAI can either increase its user base, raise prices, or cut costs. Much of the industry is already aligning around its $20 and $200 a month pricing tiers. So OpenAI would need to offer something others cannot to justify a premium, or risk losing customers to competitors such as Anthropic or Google.

With the academic year about to kick off, OpenAI is sure to pick up a fresh round of subscriptions as students file back into classrooms following the summer break. While more paying customers will mean more revenues, it also means higher compute costs.

Enter the cost-cutting era.

Perhaps the best evidence of cost-cutting is the fact that GPT-5 isn't actually one model. It's a collection of at least two models: a lightweight LLM that can quickly respond to most requests and a heavier duty one designed to tackle more complex topics. Which model prompts land in is determined by a router model, which acts a bit like an intelligent load balancer for the platform as a whole. Image prompts use a completely different model, Image Gen 4o.

This is a departure from how OpenAI has operated in the past. Previously, Plus and Pro users have been able to choose which model they'd like to use. If you wanted to ask o3 mundane questions that GPT-4o could have easily handled, you could.

In theory, OpenAI's router model should allow the bulk of GPT-5's traffic to be served by its smaller, less resource-intensive models.

We can see more evidence of cost-cutting in OpenAI's decision to toggle reasoning on and off by default automatically, depending on the complexity of the prompt. Freeloaders... we mean free tier users, don't have the ability to toggle this on themselves. The less reasoning the models are doing, the fewer tokens they generate and the less expensive they are to operate....

....MUCH MORE 

One of the sidebar stories at El Reg is headlined: "GPT-5 is going so well for OpenAI that there's now a 'show additional models' switch" Ouch.

America's Fastest Growing Companies: Names You Must Know

Test on Friday.

There are 5000 of them so best get cracking.

(just kidding, we don't "must" anything. no "must" read, no "must see", do, etc.)

From Inc. Magazine, August 12:

Inc. 5000
Meet the Companies Scaling at Hyper Speed 

Companies on the 2025 Inc. 5000 list are ranked according to their percentage revenue growth over three years, from 2021 to 2024. To qualify, companies must be privately held, for-profit, based in the U.S., and independent (not subsidiaries or divisions of other companies) as of December 31, 2024. Since then, some companies on the list may have gone public or been acquired. Companies must have been founded and generating revenue by March 31, 2021. The minimum revenue requirement is $100,000 for 2021 and $2 million for 2024. All honorees must pass Inc.’s editorial review....

....MUCH MORE  

The complete list is linked at the bottom of the first page. 

"Founder of China’s Unitree sees lack of advanced AI as biggest roadblock to mass robot use"

From the South China Morning Post, August 13: 

In an interview with the People’s Daily, Wang Xingxing predicts that significant progress in the sector will arrive in three to five years

The biggest obstacle to the mass deployment of robots is the lack of advanced artificial intelligence, according to Wang Xingxing, founder of China’s leading robotics company Unitree.

Robotic AI had not reached a critical threshold necessary for widespread adoption, Wang said in an interview published on Wednesday by the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party. He reiterated his earlier assertion that the “ChatGPT moment” for the robotics industry had yet to arrive.

“This is a common challenge worldwide, and many people are working to overcome it,” he said. “But breakthroughs can happen at any time … issues that currently seem insurmountable could be suddenly resolved in the future.”

Wang’s remarks come as China’s robotics sector – an area also known as embodied intelligence – is gaining momentum, attracting interest from the government, various industries and the public.

Unitree garnered national attention after its humanoid robots gave a dance performance during state broadcaster China Central Television’s annual Lunar New Year’s Eve gala. Weeks later, Wang became the youngest entrepreneur to join Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-profile business symposium in February.

Wang, 35, said the heightened attention was beneficial for the entire industry, adding that Unitree and other robotics businesses performed well in the first half of the year.

He expressed surprise at the rapid advancements in robotics AI. “I cannot believe robots are already engaged in boxing matches,” Wang said. “I expected it would take at least a year or two, but it happened in just a few months.”

Wang predicted significant progress within three to five years, though he cautioned that it may take longer for robots to enter households because of ethical and safety concerns.....

....MUCH MORE 

"Early Signs of Economic Slowdown in Texas"

From the East Texas Sports Network, August 13:

The Texas economy has been thriving, even in the face of adversity, and the country is struggling as a whole. Jobs have been relatively easy to find, purchasing power has still been pretty good, and overall, Texans have been living ok. 

However, there are now some indicators that the ride is about to come to an end, and we could see some economic woes hitting our state. 

Job Growth Is Slowing
One of the key indicators in an economic slowdown is what the job growth rate looks like. In the U.S., the national job growth rate is .7%. In Texas, it's been pretty steady at a staggering 2.5%.  

However, the job growth rate here just fell by 1.3% which is pretty significant. Typically, that says companies based in Texas are seeing signs that tell them they need to start slowing down on adding salaries, as business could be a bit weaker than it had been. 

Construction In Texas Has Slowed
Now, if you live in Amarillo, you'd challenge this one without a doubt. However, across the state of Texas, construction has slowed down significantly. 

The housing construction has slowed by 7%, which means less homes are being built.... 

....MORE 

"US selects 11 projects for program to fast-track small nuclear test reactors"

From Reuters, August 13:

The U.S. Department of Energy said on Tuesday it has made an initial selection of 11 projects for a pilot program seeking to develop high-tech test nuclear reactors and get at least three of them to begin operating in less than a year.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
As artificial intelligence and data centers boost power demand, the U.S. is aiming to develop small nuclear reactors which developers say will be cheaper to build per Megawatt of output than today's large reactors because the parts could be replicated in factories....

....COMPANIES SELECTED
The department selected the following companies: Aalo Atomics., Antares Nuclear, Atomic Alchemy, Deep Fission Inc., Last Energy., Oklo, Natura Resources LLC, Radiant Energy, Terrestrial Energy, and Valar Atomics....
....MUCH MORE 

"PUTIN'S BLOODBATH Russia breaks through Ukrainian frontline as Putin sends 110,000 troops into the meatgrinder days before Trump summit"

From The Sun (U.S. edition), August 12: 

It comes as Russia accused the UK of trying to sabotage upcoming peace talks between Trump and Putin 

VLADIMIR Putin's forces have brutally broken through Ukraine's front lines - just days before a showdown with Trump.

Savage Russian troops made a sudden thrust in a two-pronged attack, as Ukraine's General Staff revealed the raging despot has massed at least 110,000 on the frontline in the Donetsk region.

The terrifying development could give warmongering Putin an upper hand when he meets the US President for crunch talks on Friday.

Mad Vlad might even leverage the move as a bargaining chip to increase pressure on Kyiv to give up land.

His bloodthirsty forces have reportedly advanced by at least 10km north in two prongs in recent days, as part of their attempt to capture the entire Donetsk region.

The surprise thrust was made near the coal mining town of Dobropillia - marking the most dramatic advancement this year.

Russian forces barbarically surged towards three villages on a section of the frontline near Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported.

The city of Pokrovsk has an immense strategic importance - the road and rail hub has been dubbed by Russian media as the "gateway to Donetsk".

Moscow currently controls over 70 per cent of the highly-contested Donetsk region - but capturing it entirely could allow Putin's forces to cause major disruption to supply lines on the eastern front.

Ukraine's DeepState authority said: "The situation is quite chaotic, as the enemy, having found gaps in the defence, is infiltrating deeper, trying to quickly consolidate and accumulate forces for further advancement."....

....MUCH MORE

This is one instance where The Sun's tabloid style is more than warranted. 

"US missile depletion from Houthi, Israel conflicts may shock you"

Or it may not, your call.

From Responsible Statecraft, August 7:

 We crunched the numbers taking into account existing stockpiles, public info on interceptors used, and new orders

Historic levels of air defense missiles were expended by U.S. Navy ships in the Middle East in defense of Israel and in protection of Red Sea shipping since October of 2023. This led Admiral James Kilby, Naval Operations acting chief, to testify in June that their ship-launched air defense interceptors — SM-3s — are being expended at an “alarming rate” in defense of Israel.

But just how alarmed should we really be?

To determine this we need to know how many missiles the U.S. had in its inventory prior to October of 2023, how many missiles were expended since then, and how many new missiles have been produced since the beginning of 2024 up through June of 2025.

First, the Navy released a report on how many standard missiles were expended from October 2023 to December 31, 2024 that allows us to make a reasonable guesstimate of how many standard missiles were used to defend Red Sea shipping against the Houthis in first six months of 2025 for a total from October 2023 of 168 SM-2s, 17 SM-3s and 112 SM-6s.

Meanwhile in 2024, Israel suffered two major attacks from Iran: 120 ballistic missiles in April and 180 ballistic missiles on Oct 1. Additional details revealed in this April USNI article, combined with the minimum number of interceptors launched per U.S. Navy interception, allows us to estimate that a total of 24 missiles were expended by a total of four different Arleigh Burke destroyers in 2024 to supplement Israel’s ballistic missile defense: let's say 12 SM-3s and 12 SM-6s.

To come up with an educated guesstimate of how many standard missiles were used to defend Israel during the 2025 12-day war, we will rely on a few plausible assumptions, with the overarching one being that Israel burned through many of its own interceptors in 2024.

This is what presumably led the U.S. Navy to increase the number of Arleigh Burke Destroyers protecting Israel from two in 2024, to five in 2025. We will also assume the destroyers tasked with protecting cities and military facilities many miles inland, were stocked with more than the normal loadout of missiles capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at long range, i.e. SM-3s and SM-6s.

Hence, for the purpose of this analysis, each the of the five destroyers would be loaded out with 30 SM-3s, 40 SM-6s, with the balance of their 96 vertical launch tubes filled with a mix of quad packs of ESSMs, Tomahawk land attack missiles (TLAMs), ASROCs, and of course SM-2s. This is far more SM-3s than the 4 -8 SM-3s these destroyers would normally carry, but given their tasking, it seems reasonable.

Using the above assumptions, and while reserving some for ship defense, the Navy would have collectively launched an estimated 130 SM-3s (though at least one report based on a U.S. official has that number at 80) and 150 SM-6s in defense of Israel in June. We will further guesstimate that the five ships launched at least 100 SM-2 in total to defend against Iranian drones and missile targeting Israeli facilities very near the coast.

Adding in the missiles we know were used to defend Israel in 2024 gives us an estimate of 100 SM-2s, 142 SM-3s and 168 SM-6s used to defend Israel since October 7, 2023.

Combining the numbers with the above estimates for the Red Sea conflict through June 2025, we can estimate a grand total of 268 SM-2s, 159 SM-3s, and 280 SM-6s used in the Middle East from October of 2023 through the end of June 2025....

....MUCH MORE 

Very related from May 28's "Anduril Secures $6 Billion in Global Defense Contracts": 

Palmer, who drove CBS journalist Sharyn Alfonsi around Orange County in his 1985 Humvee, also expressed urgency for the U.S. to be ready with a full arsenal of smart weapons.

“The war games say we’re gonna run out of munitions in eight days in a fight with China. If we have to fight Iran and China and Russia all at the same time, we are screwed,” he said.
Luckey took Alfonsi on a boat ride 15 miles off the coast of Dana Point to showcase’s Anduril submarine drone called Dive XL, which is about the size of a school bus and can travel 1,000 miles fully submerged.

Proving the Naysayers Wrong

Luckey, whose Business Journal-estimated worth as of last July was $5 billion, made his fortune by selling his virtual reality company Oculus VR to Facebook for $2.3 billion in 2014 when he was 21 (see his OC50 Rising Entrepreneur bio)....

....MUCH MORE, they go deep.

Our estimate of how dire the ammunition situation vis-à-vis China is a bit more optimistic. From April's "You Understand The United States Is Not Capable Of Defending Taiwan In The Event Of A Chinese Invasion, Right?": 

A week's worth of high-intensity bombing by the Americans uses up half their munitions in the Pacific theater.

That "Taiwan" post may also be of interest. 

Is Iran running out of water?

The country has had an expanding problem for years, and it is bad enough that the Iranians accused Israel of stealing Iran's clouds.

This is the sort of thing that leads to war. 

From Deutsche-Welle, August 6:

A heat wave and water shortages are paralyzing public life in Iran. Authorities call it an extreme drought, but climate experts say their warnings have been ignored for years

Authorities in Iran ordered many government offices and public institutions in 16 of Iran's 31 provinces, including Tehran, to remain closed on Wednesday in an attempt to cut power consumption amid an extreme heat wave that has been ongoing since mid-July.

The extreme weather is expected to continue for at least five more days in many parts of the country, according to the meteorological agency, with temperatures forecast to hit 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in some areas.

The heat wave has been accompanied by drought, with the capital, Tehran, experiencing its lowest rainfall in 60 years, severely impacting the city's water resources, according to the Tehran Provincial Water and Sewage Corporation.

Water pressure in Tehran's pipeline network has been reduced to counteract the falling water levels in the city's reservoirs. 

"All rivers and water sources within a 100-kilometer radius of Tehran have been depleted," according to Nasser Karami, who researches sustainable development, climate change and water management.

"Tehran is not a place where authorities can simply resort to another source when water is scarce," the Norway-based researcher told DW.

Mismanagement of resources 
Tehran city, which is home to more than 9 million people, is located on the northern edge of the central Iranian desert zone. Water scarcity has been a central issue for the city administration since at least 1969.

Building code violations, resource mismanagement and over-consumption have impacted the capital's drinking water resources, which are only adequate for a limited number of people. 

Experts have been warning for decades that Iran — whose population tripled from 28 million in 1969 to 92 million in 2025 — does not have sufficient resources to support its growing number of inhabitants, expanding agriculture needs, or the high water consumption of its industry and households.

"Nature has paid the price for this policy," said environmental expert Mansour Sohrabi, who has been based in Germany since 2015. "Water shortages, heat waves in cities that have hardly any trees left, sandstorms, and particulate matter pollution are the result of these misguided developments."

In recent weeks, water has been turned off for up to 48 hours in several Iranian cities. Electricity is also in short supply. The use of air conditioning puts additional strain on the already unstable power grids. With temperatures between 40 and 50 degrees Celsius, power outages lasting hours are a regular occurrence, which is an almost unbearable burden for many people. 

Frustrated experts 
"We have been warning the authorities in Iran about this situation for 30 years," said climate researcher Karami. "It was clear that the uncontrolled development of large urban metropolises would lead to precisely this point....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously:

July 2019 - UPDATED: The Tigris and Euphrates Are Drying Up—And It's Far From Natural

January 2019 - "Iran drought turns political as lawmakers fight over water share"
It was funny when the Iranians were accusing Israel of stealing their clouds. Now it has the potential to get serious

June 2023 - Where things get really difficult is when you have cross-border claims such as those we're seeing right now between Iran and Afghanistan. A couple weeks ago they were shooting at each other

Iran, Iraq and Syria: "As neighbours build dams, Iraqis watch twin rivers dry up

Capitalism And The Market Economy Are Completely Opposite Intellectual Paradigms

You probably knew this intuitively but it's nice to have it laid out on one page. 

From Nicholas Colin's LinkedIn a couple months ago:

Most people think capitalism and the market economy are the same thing 🤔

They're not. Understanding the difference explains much of what's happening in the business world, and the economy in general.

📉 The market economy is deflationary by design. It's the world of merchants buying and selling, taking thin margins as products pass through their hands. Competition drives prices down, quality up, and profits toward zero. Think restaurants, retail, most service businesses: endless competition where everyone fights for scraps.

📈 Capitalism is the opposite. It's about escaping that competitive pressure by inserting capital into the production process to generate increasing returns. Capitalists don't want to compete. They want to win once and keep winning.

This insight, by the way, comes from French historian Fernand Braudel (pictured), though Peter Thiel later rebranded it (without attribution) as "competition is for losers."

🍔 Consider McDonald's. The chain's legendary founder Ray Kroc didn't succeed by making better burgers. He succeeded by owning the real estate and licensing the system. Two sources of increasing returns that gave him a "grip" over franchisees while avoiding restaurant-level competition.

🛍️ Amazon operates similarly: they don't just run a marketplace (competitive) or just sell their own products (competitive). They do both, plus AWS. The grip across multiple value chain links creates increasing returns that pure retailers can't match.

Most businesses remain trapped in the market economy, optimising for better features, lower prices, faster delivery. All the things that markets reward. But these lead to a race to the bottom.

The winners escape into capitalism. They use capital (whether financial, technological, or informational) to create increasing returns that make direct competition irrelevant. Network effects, data advantages, platform dynamics are capitalism's modern tools.

When capitalism works too well, it attracts new entrants who restore competitive pressure. So capitalism indirectly contributes to deflation, but that's really the market economy fighting back. Cc Tal F.

The state steps in when neither works: regulating natural monopolies like telecoms, running services like air traffic control that can't be safely competed, or funding education and childcare where even capitalism can't generate sufficient returns.

Understanding which dynamic dominates helps explain why some sectors see relentless price pressure while others generate sustained excess returns.

As for the current reflections about AI's impact on the economy: they should focus less on what jobs will disappear, more on where in a given industry AI will make it harder / easier to play the capitalist game. Cc Raphaelle d'Ornano

I explored these themes in my 2019 analysis of capitalism and nation states and my 2020 piece on what capitalism really means. Links in comment...

 ....MORE (comments)

The author's Drift Signal substack

And the referenced 2019 post

"Vietnam wants to be the next Asian tiger and it's overhauling its economy to make it happen"

From the AP via Canada's Financial Post, August 13:

Beneath red banners and a gold bust of revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh in Hanoi’s central party school, Communist Party chief To Lam declared the arrival of “a new era of development” late last year. The speech was more than symbolic_ it signaled the launch of what could be Vietnam’s most ambitious economic overhaul in decades.

Vietnam aims to get rich by 2045 and become Asia’s next “tiger economy” — a term used to describe the earlier ascent of countries like South Korea and Taiwan.

The challenge ahead is steep: Reconciling growth with overdue reforms, an aging population, climate risks and creaking institutions. There’s added pressure from President Donald Trump over Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S., a reflection of its astounding economic trajectory.

In 1990, the average Vietnamese could afford about $1,200 worth of goods and services a year, adjusted for local prices. Today, that figure has risen by more than 13 times to $16,385.

Vietnam’s transformation into a global manufacturing hub with shiny new highways, high-rise skylines and a booming middle class has lifted millions of its people from poverty, similar to China. But its low-cost, export-led boom is slowing and it faces a growing obstacle to its proposed reforms — expanding private industries, strengthening social protections and investing in technology and green energy — from climate change.

“It’s all hands on deck. . . . We can’t waste time anymore,” said Mimi Vu of the consultancy Raise Partners.

The export boom can’t carry Vietnam forever

Investment has soared, driven partly by U.S.-China trade tensions, and the U.S. is now Vietnam’s biggest export market. Once-quiet suburbs have been replaced with industrial parks where trucks rumble through sprawling logistics hubs that serve global brands.

Vietnam ran a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S. trade in 2024, angering Trump, who threatened a 46% U.S. import tax on Vietnamese goods. The two sides appear to have settled on a 20% levy, and twice that for goods suspected of being transshipped, or routed through Vietnam to avoid U.S. trade restrictions.

During negotiations with the Trump administration, Vietnam’s focus was on its tariffs compared to those of its neighbors and competitors, said Daniel Kritenbrink, a former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam. “As long as they’re in the same zone, in the same ballpark, I think Vietnam can live with that outcome,” he said. But he added questions remain over how much Chinese content in those exports might be too much and how such goods will be taxed.

Vietnam was preparing to shift its economic policies even before Trump’s tariffs threatened its model of churning out low-cost exports for the world, aware of what economists call the “middle-income trap,” when economies tend to plateau without major reforms.

To move beyond that, South Korea bet on electronics, Taiwan on semiconductors, and Singapore on finance, said Richard McClellan, founder of the consultancy RMAC Advisory.

But Vietnam’s economy today is more diverse and complex than those countries were at the time and it can’t rely on just one winning sector to drive long-term growth and stay competitive as wages rise and cheap labor is no longer its main advantage.

It needs to make “multiple big bets,” McClellan said.

Vietnam’s game plan....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested we have quite a few posts on Vietnam and its economic potential. 

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

"Goodbye, $165,000 Tech Jobs. Student Coders Seek Work at Chipotle."

From the New York Times, August 10:

Growing up near Silicon Valley, Manasi Mishra remembers seeing tech executives on social media urging students to study computer programming.

“The rhetoric was, if you just learned to code, work hard and get a computer science degree, you can get six figures for your starting salary,” Ms. Mishra, now 21, recalls hearing as she grew up in San Ramon, Calif.

Those golden industry promises helped spur Ms. Mishra to code her first website in elementary school, take advanced computing in high school and major in computer science in college. But after a year of hunting for tech jobs and internships, Ms. Mishra graduated from Purdue University in May without an offer.

“I just graduated with a computer science degree, and the only company that has called me for an interview is Chipotle,” Ms. Mishra said in a get-ready-with-me TikTok video this summer that has since racked up more than 147,000 views. 

Since the early 2010s, a parade of billionaires, tech executives and even U.S. presidents has urged young people to learn coding, arguing that the tech skills would help bolster students’ job prospects as well as the economy. Tech companies promised computer science graduates high salaries and all manner of perks.

“Typically their starting salary is more than $100,000,” plus $15,000 hiring bonuses and stock grants worth $50,000, Brad Smith, a top Microsoft executive, said in 2012 as he kicked off a company campaign to get more high schools to teach computing.

The financial incentives, plus the chance to work on popular apps, quickly fed a boom in computer science education, the study of computer programming and processes like algorithms. Last year, the number of undergraduates majoring in the field topped 170,000 in the United States — more than double the number in 2014, according to the Computing Research Association, a nonprofit that gathers data annually from about 200 universities.

But now, the spread of A.I. programming tools, which can quickly generate thousands of lines of computer code — combined with layoffs at companies like Amazon, Intel, Meta and Microsoft — is dimming prospects in a field that tech leaders promoted for years as a golden career ticket. The turnabout is derailing the employment dreams of many new computing grads and sending them scrambling for other work.

"Coast Guard Commissions First New Icebreaker Since the 1990s"

What the politicians allowed to happen to the country's cryo-capabilities since 2010-or so is dangerous.*

From the U.S. Naval Institute, August 11:

Ahead of a planned boost in icebreaker programs, the Coast Guard has commissioned its first major icebreaker since 1999.

Medium icebreaker USCGC Storis (WAGB-21) was commissioned Saturday in a ceremony in Juneau, Alaska, according to a statement from the service.

Storis adds vital capability to the U.S. polar icebreaker fleet at a critical time when our adversaries are expanding their activities in and near U.S. waters,” Coast Guard commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday said during the pierside commissioning ceremony.

The addition of the new cutter will bring the Coast Guard’s icebreaker inventory up to three. Storis joins medium USCGC Healy (WAGB-20) and the only U.S. polar icebreaker USCGC Polar Star (WAGB-10). Healy is largely responsible for the Coast Guard’s Arctic missions while Polar Star has the annual task of breaking out the U.S. McMurdo Station in Antarctica. Storis will be focused on the Arctic mission, according to the Coast Guard.

The Coast Guard bought Storis — formerly the commercial oil and gas vessel Aiviq built by Edison Chouset Offshore — for $125 million and intends to base the icebreaker in Juneau, the service announced last year. The Coast Guard has indicated it would spend an additional $25 million to refurbish the ship.

Following the commissioning, Storis will be homeported in Seattle, Wash., ahead of upgrades to the proposed pier in Alaska.

The commissioning ceremony comes as the Coast Guard has secured more than $5 billion for three or more Arctic Security Cutters and a new class of icebreakers in the recently passed reconciliation bill....

....MORE 
*For more on how we got to this point, where China, a non-polar nation, has newer icebreakers, including the one currently parked off Alaska see:

Polar Star 

With such hits as March 2019's "An Account of The Voyage Of The Icebreaker USCG Polar Star (It's bad)" and many, many more.

"Vladimir Putin risks new 'Flying Chernobyl' nuclear missile test after 'activity'"

From the Daily Express via MSN, August 7:

Vladimir Putin is reportedly gearing up for fresh trials of his 'Flying Chernobyl' missile.

The Burevestnik is allegedly designed to remain airborne for days or potentially weeks while it searches for vulnerabilities in Western defense systems. Initially revealed by the Russian president in 2018, the weapon is thought to have undergone more than a dozen trials - allegedly with minimal achievement.

Heightened recent movements at the Pankovo testing facility on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic - spotlighted by Decker Evelet, a nuclear weapons specialist at the CNA analytical firm - has sparked speculation of an approaching trial. A potential trial is also indicated by the fact that the US deployed a WC-135R radiation surveillance aircraft of the Air Force to Novaya Zemlya, the Moscow Times, an independent Russian news publication reports. 

The Burevestnik's most extended flight is thought to have covered merely around 22 miles, staying aloft for approximately two minutes.

In 2019, the Burevestnik - NATO reporting name SSC-X-9 Skyfall - infamously plummeted into the Barents Sea, and a recovery mission resulted in an explosion that claimed seven researchers from the classified nuclear city Sarov, causing radiation in Scandinavia.

Putin labeled them "national heroes" without offering specifics about their deaths. Last year, radioactive Caesium-137 was detected along the Norway-Russia border, sparking unverified concerns about activities at Russia's Pankovo test site for the Burevestnik missile. The data was gathered from filters in Viksjøfjell and Svanhovd, Norway.

The Burevestnik missile is seen by Russian President Vladimir Putin as a revolutionary 'doomsday' weapon with unlimited range.

The Kremlin views it as a low-flying "stealth" cruise missile that can evade Western air defenses and deliver nuclear warheads anywhere in the world.

Putin has described it as "a radically new type of weaponry" with "unlimited range and unlimited ability to maneuver". According to a report by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit arms control organization, Russia conducted 13 known tests between 2017 and 2019, all of which were unsuccessful.

The missile has been nicknamed the "Flying Chernobyl" by former US special presidential envoy for arms control Marshall Billingslea due to fears that its unshielded or partially shielded reactor emits radioactive exhaust, raising environmental and safety concerns.

The Burevestnik was one of several "doomsday" weapons unveiled by Putin in March 2018, including the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Avangard glide vehicle, and the Sarmat - also known as Satan-2 - giant nuclear rocket....

....MUCH MORE 

And on the big guy:

In Other News: "Russia to test new Satan 2 ballistic missile that could obliterate 'area the size of UK or Texas'"
Apparently Satan 1 wasn't up to the job

Russia to Begin ‘Satan-2’ Ballistic Missile Tests in 2020

And from The National Interest, August 12:

Russia’s Nuclear-Powered Missile Isn’t Called the “Flying Chernobyl” for Nothing

Because the Burevestnik employs a compact nuclear reactor and a ramjet, it can fly at low altitude to skirt radar detection and circuitous paths to bypass air defenses.

Russia’s 9M730 Burevestnik, known in NATO nomenclature as the SSC-X-9 “Skyfall,” represents one of Russia’s most ambitious and controversial advancements in strategic weaponry. 

Unveiled by President Vladimir Putin in 2018, this nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile has been billed by the Russians as an “invincible” system capable of evading any missile defense. Designed to count US anti-ballistic missile systems, the Burevestnik draws inspiration from Cold War-era concepts like America’s “Project Pluto,” which explored nuclear-powered ramjet propulsion but was abandoned due to the copious amounts of radiation it left in its wake. 

This new Russian Burevestnik missile has unlimited range and the ability to loiter indefinitely. In an era of heightened geopolitical tensions, it embodies Russia’s push to build up asymmetric defenses against the West. 

The Burevestnik’s Background 
When the George W. Bush administration withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002, Moscow began formulating ways to counter what the Russian leadership believed would be an unfair American advantage over Russia. By 2016, Russian designers had created the Burevestnik in an attempt to level the playing field between East and West.

The missile’s name—Burevestnik—means “storm petrel,” a type of seabird, in Russian. By 2019, trials of its nuclear power unit were reportedly complete, but the program has been plagued by setbacks until recently. At least 13 tests inside Russia have been conducted, with only two deemed partial successes. 

Recent satellite imagery from July 2024 reveals construction of a probable deployment site at Vologda-20, a nuclear warhead storage facility 295 miles north of Moscow. This site features nine horizontal launch pads protected by high beams, signaling Russia’s intent to operationalize the system.

What to Know About the Burevestnik Missile 
Because the Burevestnik employs a compact nuclear reactor and a ramjet, it can fly at low altitude to skirt radar detection and circuitous paths to bypass air defenses. Armed with a thermonuclear warhead, it can theoretically loiter for hours or even days, striking from unexpected angles. Estimates suggest this missile has a range exceeding 12,400 miles, far surpassing conventional cruise missiles.

Critics have stressed that the Burevestnik has weaknesses. For instance, they argue that its subsonic speed makes the missile susceptible to interception over long flights. These critics also claim that the inertial guidance systems accumulate errors, potentially causing deviations. Perhaps most dangerously, the unshielded nuclear reactor emits detectable heat and radiation, risking environmental contamination—and earning the missile the moniker of “Flying Chernobyl.”....

....MUCH MORE 

The really spooky one is the cobalt bomb, about which Albert Einstein said:

"If successful, radioactive poisoning of the atmosphere, and hence annihilation of 
any life on earth will have been brought with in the range of technical possibilities."

Perhaps loaded on a lingering drone/torpedo:

‘Doomsday’ Nuclear Submarine Armed With Nuclear-Powered, Nuclear-Tipped Torpedoes Delivered to Russian Navy

Inflation: Headline CPI Up 0.2% In July; Up 2.7% Year-over-Year

Bloomberg's survey had headline CPI up 0.2%, down from June’s 0.3%.

YoY guesses were 2.8% in July, up from a 2.7% rise in June.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 12:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - JULY 2025

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. 
Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year....

...MUCH MORE, Tables, discussion.  

Looking at the first table (A), utilities—electricity and piped natural gas—were up 7.2% of the last twelve months. 

The pundits will point to core rising MoM and YoY but equity speculators seem pleased with the print. 

Here's the always interesting Table 2:

Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category  

"Huawei Is Working On An EV Battery That Can Last Over 1,800 Miles On A 5-Minute Charge"

From BGR ( Boy Genius Report before they grew up), August 7:

Huawei is working on a new EV battery that could completely revolutionize the electric vehicle industry. For years, engineers and researchers have been looking for some way to drastically improve EV batteries and help eliminate concerns like range anxiety, which has kept many from adopting new EVs and ditching fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

While we've seem some impressive breakthroughs — like the battery design that will make EVs lighter — others have focused more on providing fast-charging capabilities, delivering up to 250 miles of range with a few moments of charging. Now, though, Huawei appears to be working on an absolutely mind-boggling battery that would allow for more than 1,800 miles of range after only five minutes on the charger.

If that type of breakthrough sounds too good to be true, it just might be. Despite seeming promising, many believe that this kind of technological breakthrough could still be years away, as it relies on an entirely new type of battery design called a solid-state battery.

A battery breakthrough that's likely still years away

The downside to the work on this new solid-state battery, though, is that many doubt the battery's short-term feasibility. That's not only because delivering that kind of range and fast charging is a lot to expect from a single generation of battery developments — it's also because solid-state battery tech is still very much in its infancy. While we've seen increased charging speeds on EV batteries in recent years, we have yet to really see anyone truly deliver on a charge that can fully refill a vehicle's battery in minutes....

....MUCH MORE 

Huawei is into a lot of stuff. 

Recently:

The bottled water scandal gripping France

From the BBC, August 8:

Is Perrier as pure as it claims? The bottled water scandal gripping France 

France's multi-billion euro mineral water companies are under the spotlight because of climate change and growing concerns about the industry's environmental impact.

At issue is whether some world-famous brands, notably the iconic Perrier label, can even continue calling themselves "natural mineral water".

A decision in the Perrier case is due in the coming months. It follows revelations in the French media about illicit filtration systems that have been widely used in the industry, apparently because of worries about water contamination, after years of drought linked to climate change.

"This really is our Water-gate," says Stéphane Mandard, who has led investigations at Le Monde newspaper. "It's a combination of industrial fraud and state collusion."

"And now there is a real Sword of Damocles hanging over the head of Perrier."

According to hydrologist Emma Haziza, "the commercial model of the big producers has worked very well. But it is absolutely not sustainable at a time of global climate change".

"When you have big brands that feel they have no choice but to treat their water – that means they know there is a problem with the quality."

The story hit the headlines a year ago in France after an investigation by Le Monde and Radio France revealed that at least a third of mineral water sold in France had been illegally treated, either with ultra-violet light, carbon filters or ultra-fine micro-meshes commonly used to screen out bacteria.

The issue was not one of public health. The treated water was by definition safe to drink.

The problem was that under EU law, "natural mineral water" – which sells at a huge premium over tap water – is supposed to be unaltered between the underground source and the bottle. That is the whole point of it.

If brands like Evian, Vichy and Perrier have been so successful in France and around the world, it is thanks to an appealing image of mountain-sides, rushing streams, purity and health-giving minerals.

Admit filtering the water, and the industry risks breaking the market spell. Consumers might begin to ask what they'd been paying for.

Complicating matters for Perrier and its parent company Nestlé – as well as President Emmanuel Macron's government – is the charge that executives and ministers conspired to keep the affair quiet, covered up reports of contamination, and re-wrote the rules so that Perrier could continue using micro-filtration.

In their investigations, Le Monde and Radio France alleged that the government considered the mineral water industry so strategic that it agreed to suppress damaging information. A senate inquiry into the affair accused the government of a "deliberate strategy" of "dissimulation".

Responding to the allegations, the government has asked the European Commission to rule on what level of micro-filtration is permissible for "natural mineral water". Aurelien Rousseau, who was head of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne's cabinet at the time, admitted there had been an "error of appreciation" but insisted there was never any risk to public health....

....MUCH MORE 

As Grandmother used to say: "Evian is naive spelled backwards." 

Previously on Nestlé H₂O (not necessarily Perrier):

"Vexed in Vittel: French Town Becomes a Focal Point in War over Water"
"Nestlé Is Sucking the World’s Aquifers Dry"
"Court rules that Perrier is soda, not French mineral water — and therefore taxable"
Blasphème! Or not.
***
Nestlé sits on a throne of lies. Or was that Santa?
Anyhoo, there's always Perrier-Jouët which is definitely not a soft drink.
(and not a Nestlé product)

"The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy."

They had a good run. 

Fairly good pay, especially in the rarefied heights of academia, which also offered job security in the form of tenure and a platform from which to pontificate.

And as pointed out in a 2009 post, Keynes on Economists:

The study of economics does not seem to require any specialised gifts of an unusually high order.
Is it not, intellectually regarded, a very easy subject compared with the higher branches of philosophy and pure science? Yet good, or even competent, economists are the rarest of birds. An easy subject, at which very few excel! ....MORE

From the New York Times, July 28:

Earning a Ph.D. in economics has long been a reliable path to affluence and prestige. Not anymore.

The moment it dawned on Thomas Fullagar that his job search was not going well came in April, about six months into the process, when he applied for a position in Manhattan, Kan.

The job, at a technology company called CivicPlus, involved relatively straightforward data analysis that he wouldn’t strain to do. In fact, he had done much more complicated work while completing his Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Further improving his odds, he had grown up in Manhattan, the home of Kansas State University, and his mother knew someone at the company, who helped fast-track his application.

Yet despite his connections and credentials, he did not get the job. He didn’t even get a second interview. “It was in Manhattan, Kansas — who the heck is applying for this?” Dr. Fullagar, 33, wondered. “That one was really baffling.”

For decades, earning a Ph.D. in economics has been a nearly foolproof path to a lucrative career. Even as bearers of advanced degrees in history, English or anthropology struggled to find gainful employment, the popularity of economics as an undergraduate major created plenty of tenure-track teaching positions, while government agencies snatched up Ph.D. economists in bulk. Those looking for even larger paychecks could turn to tech companies, Wall Street and consulting firms, which bid up the price of economists as if they were a bespoke cryptocurrency.

Last year, the average base salary for newly hired economics professors at major research universities was more than $150,000, according to the American Economic Association, and their compensation swelled to about $200,000 once bonuses and summer pay were included. As recently as the 2023-24 academic year, the employment rate for Ph.D. economists within a few months of graduation was 100 percent, said John Cawley, the chair of the association’s Committee on the Job Market, citing the group’s surveys. Job satisfaction topped 85 percent.

Those glory days seem to be ending. Universities and nonprofits have scaled back hiring amid declining state budgets and federal funding cuts. At the same time, the Trump administration has laid off government economists and frozen hiring for new ones.

Tech companies also have grown stingier, and their need for high-level economists — once seemingly insatiable — has waned. Other firms have slowed hiring in response to the economic uncertainty introduced by President Trump’s tariffs and the possibility that artificial intelligence will replace their workers, even if those workers have a doctoral degree.

“The advent of A.I. is also impacting the market for high-skilled labor,” said Betsey Stevenson, a labor economist at the University of Michigan, in an email. “So the whole thing is kind of a mess.”

Of course, if it were only some egghead economists scrambling to find work, that might be not be terribly consequential. But the same forces bedeviling economists are crimping employment for other highly trained scientists and social scientists, as well as for many recent college graduates, whose jobless rate has been unusually high for an otherwise strong economy....

....MUCH MORE 

Then there is the insecurity of the economists, a trait we used to comment on more frequently than we have recently. 
Some of the outro links from February 2018's "Few things are as dangerous as economists with physics envy":

One thing I do know, economists suffer from physics envy more than practitioners of other soft sciences.
Anthropologists, sociologists, psychologists et al seem to have accepted that they aren't really scientists, at least deep, deep down they do. Economists? They seem to believe that because they use the tools of science (maths) that their area of focus is akin to chemistry or physics. It's not.

At best they are modelers (no disparagement, it's something humans are pretty good at) and because the economy, like weather, is both a complex system and a chaotic system, it is probably going to take the advent of quantum computers to get to the next level of deep understanding.

For more insight into why economics is not a hard science read the work of author, raconteur, juggler and bongo player Richard Feynman:

Gates Puts Feynman Lectures Online
All that being said, I am reminded of a quote that describes similarities between both physics and economics, along with another human activity:

Physics is like sex. Sure, it may give some practical results, but that's not why we do it.
-Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate, physics, 1965

From the Wall Street Journal's FX Horizons at MoneyBeat:
Let’s face it, economists make lousy economists.....

May 26, 2010
"WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!"
I had a similar, albeit intuitive rather than empirical, thought in the June '09 post "Climateer Investing on Carbon Trading and Traders":

...Just as an economist using the tools of science (mathematics) doesn't make economics a science, carbon traders using the tools of markets doesn't make carbon trading market based....From the abstract at Physics arXive:...
June 3, 2015 
Economists don't have "physics envy" 
I hear all the time that economists have "physics envy". This doesn't seem even remotely true. I'm not sure whether "physics envy" means that economists envy physicists, or that economists want to make physics-style theories, or that economists wish their theories worked as well as those of physicists. But none of these are true.

Reasons why economists don't have physics envy include:

1. Economists make a lot more money than physicists.

2. Economists are treated as experts on practically anything. An economist can talk about why hipsters have moustaches, and get taken seriously. An economist can talk about which restaurants are the best, and get taken seriously (Update: NO, I'm not saying Tyler's book is bad, I haven't even read it, so HUSH). An economist can talk about politics, marriage, popular music, sex, race, or sports and get taken as seriously as any expert in those fields. An economist can talk about how much progress physicists are likely to make, and get taken seriously. Physicists get taken seriously when they invent quantitative rules for things, but otherwise are treated as just one more tribe of crazy nerds with their heads in the aether....
So there you go. 
Except for point 1.
If that physicist happens to be running a quant fund in Greenwich even the richest economist in history is a pauper by comparison.  

We have many more posts on the shortcomings of economists, it's sort of a hobby.
Here, with an opposing view, is Oxford's Simon Wren Lewis:
Climateer you ignorant slutAcademic knowledge about economic policy is not just another opinion

Capital Markets: "RBA Delivers Dovish Cut, UK's Labor Market Stabilizes, Attention now US CPI"

 From Marc to Market:

Overview: There were three highlights for today and two, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and theUK's labor market update are behind us. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a dovish cut after last month's hawkish hold. It signaled scope for two more rate cuts. The UK's labor market appeared to stabilize, and this has seen the odds of another cut before the end of the pared. The third highlight is the US July CPI. We had anticipated a firmer today for the dollar ahead of the report and this has transpired. Even though headline and core CPI are likely to have edged up, we do not think that stands in the way of a cut next month. The full employment side of the Fed's mandate is seen at risk and a consensus appears to have formed to remove more of the restrictiveness of the current monetary setting. Ahead report, the dollar is trading quietly but with a mostly firmer bias.

Japanese markets re-opened after yesterday's holiday and stocks rallied, with the Nikkei gaining a little more than 2%. Most of the large bourses in the region rose with the exception of South Korea, India, and Singapore. Europe's Stoxx 600 is recouping yesterday's minor loss. US index futures are slightly firmer. Major bond markets are mixed. The 10-year JGB yield edged up to almost 1.49%. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly narrowly mixed in Europe, leaving the 3.5 bp increase in the UK 10-year Gilt the outlier. The 10-year US Treasury yield, which has risen for the past five sessions, is around a basis point softer, near 4.28%. Gold, which was tagged for 1.6% yesterday, the most in nearly three months, has stabilized today, but is stuck near yesterday's trough (~$3341.50). After falling 5.1% last week, September WTI posted its first gain of the month yesterday, rising a few cents. It is up a few more cents today but remains in the pre-weekend range (~$62.75-$64.60)....  

....MUCH MORE 

Monday, August 11, 2025

"Armies Tormented by Drones Innovate Ways to Spot, Jam and Zap on the Cheap"

From the Wall Street Journal via MSN, August 10:

BEMOWO PISKIE, Poland—When U.S. Army Sgt. Sebastian Zouzoulas became an electronic-warfare specialist, his main focus was detecting remote-control roadside explosives. That was four years ago—a whole generation back on the battlefield.

Today, his work is all about countering drones.

Wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and across Africa are rewriting the rules of combat, with small, expendable and deadly drones increasingly critical. Militaries are sprinting to mass-produce the weapons and understand how best to fit them into fighting plans.

As with every new weapon, a parallel race is on to thwart the new killers. Tacticians are grappling with how to defend against attacks massing dozens or hundreds of drones—without spending a fortune.

“Whatever weapon system or munition you shoot at another adversary’s capability, it should be cheaper than what you’re shooting down,” Army Gen. Christopher Donahue, commander of U.S. land forces in Europe and Africa, recently told a gathering in Germany.

Days after setting that challenge, Donahue was at an Army base in the Polish countryside, watching forces try to accomplish it at an exercise dubbed Project Flytrap 4.0.

The fourth in a series of learn-by-doing events, the U.S.-British maneuvers brought together top brass, tech developers and soldiers like Zouzoulas. While troops staged engagements under drenching rain across the training grounds’ woods and fields, officers and officials filled a base auditorium to absorb lessons from drone combat in Ukraine and hear about the efforts of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to apply those lessons. Outside, soldiers and technicians exhibited some of the gear being tested. 

NATO, which recently agreed to a spending increase, must ensure “that we are strong enough that we don’t have to fight because no one wants to take us on—because we’ve deterred them,” said U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker, who attended Flytrap.

The base where Poland hosted the exercise sits about 50 miles from both the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and the Polish city of Suwalki, which NATO fears that Russia considers a target because of its location between Kaliningrad and Moscow’s ally Belarus.

Project Flytrap began in March with initial research and testing. It has grown in scale and ambition, with 4.0 the first time troops integrated counterdrone systems into battalion-level fighting. The engagement scenario involved several dozen troops attacking roughly 180 defenders in traditional land battles augmented with hundreds of drones, employed in the most realistic ways possible short of lethality, said organizers.

To crank up intensity, they packed into the four-day exercise a relentless series of attacks, engagements and threats modeled on fighting in Ukraine and other conflicts.

“It’s terrifying, watching the drones counter each other,” said Zouzoulas of the scenes on Ukraine’s front lines.

Adapting to that reality is Flytrap’s focus. Troops from the Army’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment, based in Germany, and the U.K.’s Royal Yorkshire Regiment used new devices—some developed in-house and some from private companies—to track, jam and shoot down drones sent at them by other U.S. forces.

“It’s very much a cat-and-mouse game,” said Army Lt. Col. Jeremy Medaris, a leader of the exercise. Drones keep adapting, “so then you have to have an adaptation as well” to counter them. Instead of seeking a single solution, he said, the emphasis is on developing a flexible and layered approach with a range of tools.

Zouzoulas’s Terrestrial Layer System-Brigade Combat Team Manpack tackles the first stage in drone-fighting: spotting attackers. A sort of antenna, known as a Beast+, resembles a cactus growing out of a backpack, connected by wire to a screen the size of a smartphone. Designed for foot soldiers on the move, it scans for nearby drones’ radio signals and jams them.

An even smaller wearable system resembles two big walkie-talkies. Dubbed Wingman and Pitbull, they also seek and jam drones’ radio signals....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also:

November 2024 - "Laser wars: US-China in drone-killing, directed-energy arms race"

As we said in outro from one of the Anduril posts: "Anti-drone technology is so hot right now."

May 2025 - "A Counter to Drone Swarms: High-Power Microwave Weapons"

June 2025 - RAND: "Defending U.S. Military Bases Against Drones? A Recent Tabletop Exercise Explores How"

With the success of both the Ukrainian "Spiderweb" and the Israeli drone operations it is probably a good idea to keep an eye on the sky. And watch out for semi-trailer trucks and shipping containers.

In fact, don't go out at all for a few months. Which of course implies buying Amazon or other delivery company stock....

July 2025 - "The end of drone supremacy"

That was quick.