Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Capital Markets: "PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements, but USD Pullback may offer New Buying Opportunity in North America"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: After a strong showing yesterday, the dollar was sold in Asia and Europe. China announced a cut in reserve requirements and took more informal action to support the stock market, which encouraged risk-taking. Yet, the dollar's decline has stretched intraday momentum indicators, which may provide early operators in North America a new dollar buying opportunity. The ECB and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow, and the US reports its first estimate of Q4 23 GDP.

Led by a more than 4% rally in index of mainland shares that trade in Hong Kong, but of the Asia Pacific equity markets advanced today, with Japan and South Korea the notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than 0.8%, which, if sustained, would be the second-largest advance of the year. US index futures are also enjoying a firmer tone. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 0.70%, its highest level since mid-December. European and US 10-year yields are 1-4 bp lower. Here, UK Gilts are an exception, and the 10-year yield is up four basis points to 4.02%. Gold is little changed in a narrow $6 range on either side of $2028. March WTI is little changed on the $74-handle. API reportedly estimated private crude inventories fell by 6.7 mln barrels, a much larger than expected decline that is expected to be reported by the US EIA later today (-980k barrels)....

....The PBOC announced a 50 bp cut in reserve requirements, effective early next month. It is estimated to free up CNY1 trillion in funds for banks. Reports suggest that officials have "asked" some hedge funds to limit short sales of equity index futures. The Chinese yuan rallied as did Chinese equities. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate sharply lower at CNY7.1053 (CNY7.1170 yesterday). The average projection in Bloomberg's survey was CNY7.1788 (CNY7.2008 yesterday). The dollar traded to almost CNY7.1550, a nine-day lows..... 

....MUCH MORE

Silver, copper and Palladium all unclenched by ~2%.