A three part series from Tokyo Review. First up the headliner, July 25:
On many contemporary challenges, Japan is the world’s harbinger state, being the first to face issues that eventually become global problems – how Japan responds matters not just for Japan but for anyone following in its footsteps
“First mover” is often associated with positive connotations. The first firm to enter a market with scale economies or network effects – such as operating systems or internet search – can benefit from sustainable competitive advantages. Nations that develop breakthrough military innovations – from the stirrup to stealth aircraft – enjoy a battlefield edge against potential adversaries. First-ever achievements like the Tale of Genji and Sputnik are celebrated as a matter of national status and pride.
However, being early also brings nontrivial challenges. Policy innovation, like innovation in the private sector, is a messy process requiring experimentation and many dead ends. Being early has important implications for how we understand and assess policymaking in contemporary Japan. The country faces unique challenges that might be called the “harbinger’s curse.” Even if Japanese policymakers achieve a measure of success in responding to novel challenges, they will appear incompetent and slow compared to their international peers. It is important to recognize and acknowledge this dimension when we assess contemporary Japanese policymaking.
In a recent article in the Japanese Journal of Political Science, I argued that Japan is often a harbinger state, which engages in the politics of particular issues prior to other countries. This makes Japan a compelling country for scholars to study: it offers an opportunity to develop new theories and conduct early research about issues that will eventually emerge elsewhere. Being early also has important implications for how we understand policymaking.
Even if Japanese policymakers achieve a measure of success, they will appear incompetent and slow compared to their international peers
The basic idea of Japan as a first mover is certainly not new. After the Meiji Restoration, Japan became the first non-Western country to industrialize and join the ranks of the great powers. This came with distinct challenges – among other things, adapting Western institutions and technologies in a new social and cultural context, gaining status and acceptance in an international system dominated by the West, and confronting racist hierarchies and white supremacy. Similarly, Japan’s postwar developmental state and industrial policy offered important lessons for other countries seeking to engineer rapid economic growth.
Japan’s era of miracle growth is now a thing of the past, but the country’s status as a harbinger remains as relevant as ever. The “lost decade” of the 1990s became a crucial source of lessons as policymakers across the world confronted deflationary financial crises of their own after 2008. Japan is at the forefront of demographic shifts that will have serious implications for economic growth, public finances, and the global balance of power. The country has also been compelled to respond proactively to the rise of China on account of its geographic proximity and sources of friction such as territorial and history disputes....
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And then drilling down:
