Saturday, August 12, 2023

"Climate change is driving higher temperatures. Not a volcanic eruption"

Following on the post immediately below, "Ahead Of A Possible Climate Emergency Declaration, Some Interesting Phenomena".

From The Hill, 08/12/23 6:00 AM ET:

Climate change is the major driver of this year’s extreme temperatures, not the eruption last year of an underwater volcano near Tonga in the Pacific Ocean, scientists tell The Hill.  

While the eruption of the volcano may be an aggravating factor, the scientists say it is not having the impact attributed to it by conservative commentators who have downplayed the role of climate change.  

Scientists told The Hill the eruption should not be used to undercut the influence of climate change on this year’s heat waves.  

“It’s probably fair to say that the influence of [the volcano] on this year’s extremes is quite small,” said Stuart Jenkins, author of a paper that discussed the eruption.   

The paper, published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, said the eruption increases the likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming — a milestone the UN’s climate panel has said the world should avoid to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.  

Jenkins told The Hill in an interview this week the eruption could cause warming of about 0.04 or 0.05 degrees Celsius, which he described as a relatively small amount.  

“This eruption will probably have a small positive influence on global temperatures,” Jenkins said.  

“Because of our proximity to this defined 1.5-degree temperature threshold set out in the Paris Agreement, that four-hundredths, five-hundredths of a degree of peak warming actually does get you tangibly closer, temporarily, to that 1.5-degree limit.” ....