From Moneyball Economics Oct 12:
What The Moneyball Vice Index REALLY Says About Retail Forecast!
Vice Index Now Points To Lower SpendingRecent downward revisions to retail data confirms that the Vice Index correctly predicted a pullback in spending growth.
- Trend: The latest data points to a near-term bottom in the 4Q.
- September: August Retail (ex-Autos/Gas) spending came in at 3.3% y/y. Further erosion means September will dip to 3.1%
Gambling Outlook – Still On A Losing Streak
Middle America is under financial stress.
Over the past year, US casinos (ex-Vegas) have enjoyed only 1 month of positive growth.
Las Vegas is doing a bit better thanks to the return of Chinese gamblers: YTD gaming revenues are up 3.5%.
This reflects the bifurcated US economy: middle America is pulling back on frivolous activities while upper income consumers continue to spend.
(NOTE: Will higher spending by the 1% be enough to offset a spending pullback by the bottom 99%? We’ll have to find out…)
Is Cannabis Replacing Beer?
Beer consumption fell in 2016 for the first time since 2011 (per IWSR).
Several reasons are possible:HT: ZeroHedge
But maybe cannabis legalization is also playing a role....MORE
- Changes in drinking habits: Millenials are socializing differently: it’s popular to hang out at home with friends and “Netflix and chill.” And that’s driving a shift: drinking at bars (on-premise) has dropped while drinking at home (off-premise) has grown.
- Shifts in taste: Beer is down, but distilled alcohol is up. That’s largely from new styles of tequila and bourbons being released, and the big marketing campaigns pushing them.