Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Farm Lender MetLife on Ag Commodities: Next year could prove 'turning point' for grain prices

We shall see.

Last Chg
Corn 361-4+1-0
Soybeans 1035-2+4-2
Wheat 418-4+1-2

From Agrimoney:

Next year could prove a "turning point" for grain and oilseed prices, MetLife said, saying that official estimates for the latest US harvest may be too large, and foreseeing a global production "pullback".
The insurance giant, whose agriculture division is one of North America's top farm mortgage lenders, said that market ideas of this year's record corn and soybean harvests appear "too high", questioning some of the assumptions behind US Department of Agriculture's estimates.
While the USDA has estimated this year's US corn yield at a record 175.3 bushels per acre, and the soybean result at a record 52.5 bushels per acre, "we view that smaller-sized ears and pods could trim final yields", MetLife said.
Downgrades could "bring the size of the 2016 harvest only slightly above the 2015 record".
Acreage forecasts
Another potential spur to prices could come from the dent to sowings programmes from weak prices, with MetLife forecasting that US plantings "should pull back in 2017 leading to lower excess supplies of major crops".
Indeed, the insurer forecast US corn sowings falling some 3.5m acres next year, after rising to 94.5m acres in 2016 on USDA estimates.
The MetLife estimate is in fact a little more sanguine on corn area than figures from some other forecasters, with Informa pegging US corn seedings next year at 90.8m acres, and the USDA itself putting sowings at 90.0m acres in outline data released two weeks ago.
However, on soybeans, MetLife's estimate that "acres are likely to remain flat", after reaching a record 83.7m acres this year, was well below expectations from these observers....MORE