Monday, October 10, 2016

...And A Quick Look At The Interplay Between Currencies and Inflation

From David Keohane at FT Alphaville:
GBP, inflation and the BoE, choose your own adventure edition
GBP is still falling:
And Credit Suisse are charting
CS are estimating, in their base case, that CPI inflation will go from 0.7 per cent in 2016 to 2.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.5 per cent in 2018, with cable constant at 1.20.

At parity? Well you can see the chart and won’t be terribly shocked, but we do wonder at what point the BoE finally gets nervous.

As Simon Derrick at BoNYMellon has said, the UK’s policymakers have a track-record of allowing the currency to take the strain and act, in orthodox fashion, as a limited release valve....MUCH MORE