From the Russia & India Report:
A seasonal drop in food prices, combined with a decline in consumer
demand, is among the main reasons why Russia is facing deflation, for
the first time in five years.
Rosstat, the state statistics agency, has provided figures in the
beginning of August to indicate that Russia is now encountering
deflation. The figures show a drop in prices of consumer goods.
Prices have fallen by 0.1 percent in the first week of the month.
"For the Russian economy the decrease in inflation is good news. If
things do not change, this will lead to inflation reaching the four
percent that the Russian Central Bank has set for 2017 faster," said
Timur Nigmatullin, financial analyst at Finam Holding (in comparison,
inflation in Russia was 12.9 percent in 2015). This is the goal that the
Russian regulator set at the end of 2014 when it introduced the
floating exchange rate and provoked the ruble's fall against the euro
and dollar by 50 percent.
The main reasons
According to analysts, in 2016, as five years ago, deflation can be
explained for seasonal reasons. "Usually, in the summer, prices of food
significantly decline. Fruits and vegetables are cheaper since new crops
arrive at the market," noted Andrei Kochetkov, analyst from Otkrytie
Broker. “In large cities, prices on services fall because of the holiday
season. Commercial networks often hold sales and various promotions in
order to attract buyers in these calm months,” he said.
There are, however, more basic reasons for the fall in prices.
Declining consumer demand is playing a significant role, noted Mikhail
Poddubsky, analyst at TeleTrade. The fall in GDP has made it more and
more difficult for Russians to maintain their former spending volumes,
since the level of their real incomes has decreased, he said.
However, despite all the restrictions, the deflation is still
positive news for the Russian market. "It increases trust in the
national currency and should have a good effect on economic activity,"
explained Dmitri Bedenkov, director of the analytical department at
Russ-invest. He noted that, first and foremost, the decrease in
inflation raises the consumers' purchasing power if their incomes are
stable.
Inflation at 4 percent
The deflation recorded in the beginning of August indicates that
Russia can, by 2017, reach an inflation level of four percent for the
first time in its history, said Bedenkov. Such an outcome would be
attainable because of the strict credit-monetary policy. "Interest rates
in the financial market are over 10 percent, which limits people's
access to credit and impedes economic growth," he noted....MORE
