Tuesday, December 15, 2015

"Warm Weather Crushes Natural Gas, Prices Fall To Nearly 17-Year Low"

Down another -0.090 at 1.804.
Following up on yesterday's "Natural Gas: Arctic Oscillation Index Turns Negative", more after the jump.
From Barron's
This blogger had a long-scheduled day off yesterday. I did a little holiday shopping and rode my bike around Brooklyn’s Prospect Park. 
The sun was still warm by late in the afternoon, and I was comfortable in shorts and T-shirt. 
The temperature peaked at 67 degreesFahrenheit — roughly 24 degrees higher thanaverage December day in New York City. 
In a nutshell, my lovely afternoon is the very reason why U.S. natural gas prices just plunged to their lowest settlement price in almost 17 years. The Wall Street Journal’s Nicole Friedman reports that Tuesday’s 3.8% drop for January natural-gas futures to $1.822 a million British thermal units marks the lowest since March 24, 1999. 
Natural gas, used to heat homes and offices, has been squeezed by rising supplies and falling demand. Unusually warm winter weather across the nation, part of the weather phenomenon known as El Nino, has sapped demand even further, just like analysts predicted it would....MORE
As noted in the intro to the negative AO post:
 Which means somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere is going to get colder as cooler air descends from the north..

Where is a tougher question, usually informed by the ridges and troughs of the jet stream and in this case it looks like the U.S., so a visit to the market to see what's on sale might be in order....
Here's tomorrow's jet stream forecast from Intellicast:

Not there yet* but you can see the change coming.
*which is why we also quoted the Feb. futures in that post.