Wednesday, December 16, 2015

"Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions For 2016"

From City A.M.:
Bored by predictions for 2016 that tentatively forecast interest rate rises and a slight dampening of the property market? Want something that will really make you prepare for the worst (or best) case scenarios out there?
Well hold onto your hat, because it's Saxo Bank's annual outrageous predictions for the year ahead, and they are just as eye-opening as ever...

1. I see euros, that's right: plural
Remember that brief time when celebrities like Jay Z demanded to be paid in Euros? That could happen again, Saxo Bank believes. 

"Europe is running a massive current account surplus and its weaker inflation should, in macroeconomic logic, mean a stronger currency, not a weaker one," the broker said. "The race to the bottom has gone full circle, meaning we are back to a weaker US dollar again as the direct outcome of US interest rates policy."

2. From rubble to rouble
It's not been a good year for the Russian currency, but Saxo Bank thinks that is all about to end.
"By the end of 2016, a surge in oil demand and the Fed raising rates at an inappropriately slow pace causes the Russian rouble to rise some 20 per cent versus the US dollar/euro basket in 2016." 

3. Party like it's 1999 (because it's beginning to look a lot like Y2K)
Bye-bye unicorns, hello serious business propositions?

"Next year will look resemble 2000 in Silicon Valley with more startups delaying monetisation and tangible business models in exchange for adding users and trying to achieve critical mass."

​4. Brazil will go for gold
Wouldn't this be nice. After a year in which - let's face it - multinational sporting organisations have not come out smelling of roses, Saxo Bank believes the Olympics could be a force for good, not just for Brazil, but for emerging markets as a whole. 

"Stabilisation, investment spending on the Olympics, and modest reforms will see sentiment rebound in Brazil, with EM exports helped by cheaper local currencies. The result: EM equities to have a great year - outperforming bonds and other equities."

5. Trump slump
Although Saxo Bank has shied away from giving predictions of outright winners, it believes that the GOP will collapse and Democrats romp to victory - in both the Presidential elections and in Congress. 

"The Republican Party goes from strength to dramatic weakness as the rifts from an internal struggle on its future direction play out. This leads to a landslide victory for the Democratic Party as they successfully execute a get-out-the-vote campaign with millennials coming out in droves having been frustrated by the political stalemate and weak job prospects of the last eight years."...