By focusing on the demand side you miss the larger picture of how damn much natural gas is available to the markets.
I mean the kid is right insofar as his analysis goes but the story is on the supply side.
Most active, February's, $2.9420 up 0.004
From Bespoke Investment Group:
...MOREswctweather.com covers weather forecasts and patterns for Connecticut and New York and is run by Jacob Meisel, a sophomore at Harvard College. Jacob has close to 8 years of experience already forecasting weather both for the CT/NY region and for the nation. As far as forecasting sites for the region are concerned, swctweather.com gives the best detail and explanation behind its forecasts, allowing the reader to see not only the what of the forecast, but the why as well. Its Premium service allows subscribers to view daily updates on both short-term storm threats and long-term patterns, with similar daily updates on expected impacts in the natural gas and energy market. Back on November 21st, Jacob wrote a report we published explaining why the short-term top for natural gas was likely in, as he forecasted a more mild entry into December than most at that time. He was right, and natural gas prices have fallen to multi-year lows. He followed it up with another report which is freely available on swctweather.com, and we have included a summary of it below:On November 21st, we wrote a report indicating that the weather would warm significantly enough through most of the month of December so that natural gas demand would be limited and a previously-set short-term high would be locked in. We emphasized that drawdowns would be below average and supply would grow due to this lack of demand. The report analyzed a number of weather models, showing why we had very high confidence that arctic air would be bottled up in Alaska and northern Canada, allowing mild Pacific air to flood the continental United States. At that time, the February Natural Gas contract was trading around $4.60. On January 5th, that contract settled below $2.90 and has set even lower lows.
Much has happened in between, and in this time the natural gas market has begun to separate greatly from pure weather forecasts and demand-side expectations. From reviewing the history of trading in the last 2 months and analyzing weather trends for the coming month, we are able to see that, despite calls that this downward trend may be over, the near-term bottom in natural gas has likely still not been set....
And from FinViz:
