Monday, January 5, 2015

Recent Declines Reduce Downside: The Opportunity In Shorting Energy Equities Revisited (XLE; XOP)

And if they go to $0, the downside disappears completely!
Friday morning the thinking was:
...The ETF representing the energy behemoths of the S&P 500, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is trading around 20% too high based on current oil prices, not to mention where the futures might drop to in the first half of 2015. The more speculative SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) could drop 25%....
The XLE is down 4.35% reducing our best guess of further downside to 15.65% while the XOP is down 6.45% with an expected 18.55% to go.

Or something. This is so far from an exact science even if you are using very fast computers to do your modeling that anything past the decimal point is just there for grins and giggles.
Still....
After a quick snapback sometime this week,
We're going lower.

XLE $76.10 Down 3.43 (4.31%)
XOP $45.34 Down 3.01 (6.23%)
Brent $53.16 Down 3.26 (5.8%)
WTI  $50.20 Down 2.49 (4.725754412%)

From FinViz:
XLE [NYSE]
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF