International Energy Agency "predicts ‘new chapter’ for oil markets, sees price declines into 2015 as likely"

From Platts The Barrel blog:

The 30% fall in oil prices since mid-June continues to dominate the oil market headlines, and anyone hoping for a swift recovery in prices could well be disappointed — especially if the most recent forecasts from the International Energy Agency are anything to go by.

The west’s energy watchdog said on Friday that global oil prices could continue to fall into 2015 despite the expectation that some unconventional oil production could become uneconomic at prices under $80/b.
The IEA went as far to say that oil markets were entering a “new chapter” in their history, and that a return to higher prices in the short term seemed unlikely.

“Our supply and demand forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruption, downward price pressures could build further in the first half of 2015,” the Paris-based agency said.
This week, Brent crude futures slipped below $80/b for the first time in more than four years, and earlier Friday dipped below $77/b.

“While there has been some speculation that the high cost of unconventional oil production might set a new equilibrium for Brent prices in the $80-$90/b range, supply/demand balances suggest that the price rout has yet to run its course,” it said....MORE