Oct. 1, 1981
And from FT Alphaville:
Wall Street is nervous Fed will mess up the tightening
... The most recent Primary Dealer survey results we have access to, which are from July, indicate that the big banks thought there was only a 4 per cent chance the federal funds rate would be equal to or below 0.5 per cent by the end of 2016, with no forecast for 2017.
The survey changed materially in September, with new questions directly asking about the probability that the target fed funds rate would bump against zero within two years of “liftoff.”
The implied dovishness of the dealers’ forecasts could explain the significant drop in real interest rates following the release of the minutes. Forget “considerable time” — the new mystery quantity is “considerable odds” that the Fed will have to backtrack on tightening because the US economy got pushed back into recession....MORE
