Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Here Come the Climate Reparations Demands

The key is calling modelling science.
Because you have attribution models on top of financial models on top of climate models you have so many degrees of abstraction that unless you can do a "Because....science" no dough for you.
If you can get people to accept that modelling is science though, the money will flow.
From SciDevNet:

Science could inform UN’s loss and damage mechanism 
Recent developments in climate models may help determine the extent to which human-made climate change is responsible for extreme weather events, and help provide evidence to address losses and damages associated with impacts of climate change in developing nations, scientists say. 

A range of improvements in climate modelling, such as higher resolution and faster computing, mean that scientists can say with an increasing certainty if and how extreme weather at specific locations is affected by climate change. 

At the 2013 climate summit in Warsaw, Poland, the UN established the loss and damage mechanism to address losses and damage associated with impacts of climate change, such as extreme events, in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. 

Meinhard Doelle, director of the Marine and Environmental Law Institute at Dalhousie University, Canada, says that “finding credible ways to separate out the climate-change influence … on severe events will certainly be critical” to aiding research into loss and damage. 
But the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has so far “not been given a particularly strong mandate, and certainly not a mandate to assign responsibility or liability for loss or damage, or even develop a compensation mechanism”, says Doelle.  

So, he adds, “much still needs to happen on the law and policy side before such [research] tools would actually be used to deal with loss and damage”.   The next chance to strengthen this, he says, might be at the December 2015 COP 21 meeting (the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC) in Paris, France.   

One tool that may help separate put effects of climate change on weather is called ‘probabilistic event attribution’ (PEA) modelling....MORE