We've been looking for ~1900 since Friday Aug. 22 at SPX 1992.60.*
From Schaeffer's Research:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) both touched record highs last week, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) again hit a fresh 14-year peak. In fact, all three indexes have now posted five-week winning streaks -- the longest for the DJI and SPX since last November. No single catalyst was responsible for the gains, though the thawing relationship between Ukraine and pro-Russia separatists -- which culminated in a cease-fire agreement on Friday -- certainly helped U.S. equities. Geopolitical developments aside, Schaeffer's Senior VP of Research Todd Salamone explains why several benchmark indexes have struggled to move higher, and explores potential catalysts for a future breakout....MUCH MORE
Finally, we close with a preview of the major economic and earnings events for the week ahead, plus our featured sector.
- Reasons S&P 2,000 has presented such a challenge.
- Why 17,000 could be a "supportive magnet" for the Dow.
- Rocky White offers up 24 stocks to watch for contrarian traders.
Notes from the Trading Desk: Indexes, ETFs Test Key Levels
By Todd Salamone, Senior VP of Research
"... round numbers and year-to-date breakeven points continue to come into play on various equity benchmarks. Hesitations or key pivots around these levels have been a recurring theme in 2014. We found it interesting, for example, that after the Russell 2000 Index (RUT - 1,174.35) finally climbed back above last year's close of 1,163.64, after two separate failures to retake this level since late July, this area proved to be supportive on Thursday morning's gap lower. In addition to the SPX doing battle with the 2,000 level, the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ - 99.78) has gone flat during the past week, just below the round $100 century mark. Moreover, the NYSE Composite (NYA - 11,046.35) continues to do battle with 11,000, after first touching this millennium mark in June. Clearly, the momentum off the early August bottom has slowed as various round numbers are tested ... In the coming days, there may be a wait-and-see game for short-term players to deploy more cash to the market, or for the shorts to throw in the towel. The 'wait' might be related to how multiple benchmarks, such as the QQQ and SPX behave around their respective round-number levels..."
-Monday Morning Outlook, Aug. 30, 2014$SPY Mar '09 low was $67.10. 3x's that level is $201.30. Yesterday's $SPY high was $201.58Depending on the equity benchmark being observed, it is either key century and millennium marks, or round-number percentage gains from a key level (e.g., March 2009 low) or point in time (e.g., last year's close), that have acted in concert to create a major hesitation point for stocks off their early August lows, continuing a theme in 2014 that we discussed last week. While this is basic technical analysis, not complex but simple, it is also of interest that the S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID - 1,440.01) has stalled at 1,440, its July peak. In July and at present, this level represents a round 20% gain from one year ago....
$NYA revisits 11k, $DJIA 17K revisit - round numbers in play for $QQQ $NYA $SPX $SPY $DJIA - momentum off early-Aug low stalling
$MID July high 1,445.80. This week's high 1,447.73
$RUT back to YTD breakeven around 1,163.64
-@ToddSalamone on Twitter, Sept. 5, 2014
*Aug. 22
"In Rainy Jackson Hole, Yellen Ponders Labor Market Mojo"
Aug. 25
Equities: "Some Retracement Imminent ….. Probably"
1996.87
Sept. 4
Investors Intelligence: Bears at Lowest Since February 1987
