From Weather Underground:
...SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 14 2014 1:25 PM EDT......ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
Edouard becomes the fourth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season...and has the potential to become a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) over the open ocean over the next couple of days. If it achieves this feat...it will be the first major hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Sandy in October 2012. See special feature section below for an update on Edouard. Visit www.nhc.noaa.gov for up to the minute latest information on Edouard.
Tropical wave Invest 93-L in the eastern tropical Atlantic has weakened in the last 36 hours. As Hurricane Edouard has lifted northward...it is no longer shielding this tropical wave from the dry Saharan air to the west seen in the thermodynamics chart below. Moreover the thermodynamics chart suggests a trowal of some dry Saharan air sneaking toward 93-L from the northeast. In addition upper vorticity from the south Greenland frontal cyclone system is merging with the 999 mb deep-layered low in the northeast Atlantic...with a portion of this upper vorticity expected to dive southwest around the southeast side of upper anticyclonic flow over Edouard and toward 93-L and hit 93-L with northerly shear as it moves into the central tropical Atlantic. Therefore this system is no longer expected to become a tropical cyclone and I have dropped it as a special feature on this blog.
Satellite imagery indicates that a vigorous tropical wave has entered the tropical waters southeast of the Cape Verde Islands after emerging from western Africa. Meanwhile upper vorticity from the south Greenland frontal cyclone system is merging with the 999 mb deep-layered low in the northeast Atlantic...with a portion of this upper vorticity expected to dive southwest around the southeast side of upper anticyclonic flow over Edouard and toward the central tropical Atlantic. Therefore this tropical wave will be encountering unfavorable southwesterly shear on the east side of this upper vorticity as it moves into the central tropical Atlantic by 96 hours...and therefore is not likely to develop into a tropical cyclone.
A western fracture of the large western Atlantic upper vortex has moved into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This fracture is stronger than anticipated...keeping the favorable southeastern upper ridge at bay to the north and resulting in upper convergence between the new southern Gulf upper vortex and south side of the upper ridge such that tropical low Invest 92-L has weakened into a remnant surface trough. Therefore this system is no longer expected to become a tropical cyclone and I have dropped it as a special feature on this blog.
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1200Z and 1332Z-released WPC analysis.
Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook....MOREAnd from Wunderground's Wunderblog:
Dangerous Category 4 Odile Threatens Baja; Edouard Becomes a Hurricane
Hurricane Warnings are flying for Mexico's Baja Peninsula as dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Odile approaches. Odile put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification Saturday night, going from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds in just 24 hours. Satellite loops show that Odile has likely topped out in strength, but the storm has a large area of very intense eyewall thunderstorms and a prominent eye. Odile's heavy rains have mostly remained offshore of Mexico, though an outer spiral band brushed the Southwest coast of Mainland Mexico on Saturday, bringing 0.31" of a rain and a wind gust of 32 mph to Manzanillo. Baja will not be so lucky....MOREHere's the tracking map with the cone of uncertainty:
