1.) What effect will these two factors have on real rates and
2.) What effect will the change in real rates have on gold?
From the Financial Times:
No need to show your work, the end result will suffice.One of the world’s leading indices for commodities has dropped to its lowest level in five years, casting doubt over renewed investor interest in the sector.After a record year of net withdrawals in 2013, sentiment towards commodities has started to improve this year helped by strong returns and declining correlations with other assets classes.The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which reflects the prices of 20 commodities and is tracked by billions of dollars of investor assets, delivered total returns of 7.1 per cent in the six months to June, outpacing US equities and high yield corporate bonds.
But, amid concerns about slowing growth in China and rising supply in several key markets such as crude oil and agriculture, the index dropped to its lowest level since July 2009 this week and has fallen almost 10 per cent since the start of July.
“The problem for the commodities [sector] is that we are not in an environment where there is going to be enough price appreciation across a wide enough range of commodities to make long-only investment very profitable,” said Kevin Norrish, commodities strategist at Barclays....MORE