Grain investors may be in for a surprise later on Thursday.But would it matter?It may well be that the US Department of Agriculture, in its benchmark Wasde crop report, comes in with estimates for the US corn and soybean harvests – proving the focus of the briefing – lower than the market has expected.The trouble is that should the Wasde come in with a crop which is merely huge rather than gargantuan, that may not provide enough of a shock to reverse gloom on grain prices.Big hopesExpectations for US production have certainly grown, as summer has moved into autumn without any apparently significant weather threat for corn and soybean crops, with even the cold snap moving in now, expected to cause limited frost damage, providing a weather rally which lasted only one session.
At Chicago broker RJ O'Brien, Richard Feltes flagged "more talk" of the US corn yield hitting 175 bushels per acre, or more, and the soybean yield topping 48 bushels per acre.These ideas, supported by strong results from the early harvest in the US south, especially of soybeans, compare with current USDA forecast of 167.4 bushels per acre for corn and 45.4 bushels per acre for the oilseed....MORE
Corn 343'6 down 2'0, wheat 516'4 down 3'2.
