Sunday, June 1, 2014

Why Meat Prices Are Skyrocketing

Although not as skilled as Hillary this is a topic we know something about and this is one of the first general media stories that gets it right.
From The Atlantic:
If your plans for this weekend include barbecuing a platter of pork chops and sizzling some steaks, get ready to pay up: Meat prices have skyrocketed nearly 10 percent compared to this time last year.

Oddly, the rising prices come at a time when feed costs have fallen dramatically, which should bring meat prices down. Feed costs are markedly lower—almost $3 less—this year than they were last year, when they were noticeably up from a drought the year before. Yet shelf prices are still high.

Additionally, two factors that might seem like likely culprits—the drought affecting the western United States and an E. coli recall on beef—both haven't had much of an impact. The drought will likely raise meat prices down the road, but that hasn't happened yet: Feed and meat prices are set far in advance in the futures market. Last year was a good year weather-wise, so this year's prices remain unaffected. As for the E. coli scare: You'd think that the meat industry would be hard-pressed to sell beef to shoppers, bringing prices down. But consumers seem to be shrugging it off, and demand hasn't fallen.

So what is causing the spike in meat prices? The answer is consumers.

“Consumers are feeling better about themselves and their income situation and willing to pay up for good meat,” says Bob Young, chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation. But, he says, there aren’t enough fancy cuts of meat to satisfy all the people who want them, which means grocery stores can hike up prices....MORE
Unlike the maroon who tried to pitch his agenda last October and got a "Feelin' lucky, punk?" response:
Funniest Headline of the Day: "Climate change cost you the McDonald’s dollar menu"
That's from Quartz.

I'm only going to say this once, punk: stay off my turf.

You can sure tell when the pros (cough, Matt Philips, cough) are doing the story and when its a pup.
For example, before stating that global warming has raised the cost of beef  a pro would look at the expiring October live cattle futures chart to see if reality matches the writer's mental picture:



Hmmmm....not really conclusive, so:

Then the pro would maybe think twice before writing:
1. Droughts have driven up the wholesale price of cattle
because, you know, ya snooze ya lose:
Agriculture: The Great Drought is Dead
The pro writer would have done have done a Google search on "Cattle" to see if anything happened around early October to account for the run from $127 to $132:
100,000 cattle feared dead after early South Dakota snowstorm
The pro might even have checked with Hillary Clinton for a quick backrounder before he goes and writes about cattle of all things.
The former Secretary of State famously ran $1000 to $100,000 in ten months of astounding cattle futures action:
"This is like buying ice skates one day and entering the Olympics a day later," 'says Mark Powers, editor of the Journal of Futures Markets. "She took some extraordinary risks." 
And if the pro was still inclined to blame the blizzard on global warming they at least would have the sense to check the historical record.
From the intro to our 2007 post "Cattle, Carbon and Conifers":
Many years ago my father told me about his experience with a cattle operation (the tax deal du jour).
One fine spring day he decided to head out to South Dakota; He had a good excuse for a road trip.

The way he told it, he and some of the ranch staff were standing on a ridge looking out over hundreds, if not thousands, of head of cattle and he asked the assistant foreman "which ones are mine?" "None of them", the cowboy responded,
"Yours all died"
If you can't get the facts right at least try to tell a cow joke:
...Finally a story from John Kenneth Galbraith:
This tale is said to be told by John Kenneth Galbraith on himself. As a boy he lived on a farm in Canada. On the adjoining farm, lived a girl he was fond of. One day as they sat together on the top rail of the cattle pen they watched a bull servicing a cow. Galbraith turned to the girl, with what he hoped was a suggestive look, saying, "That looks like it would be fun." She replied, "Well.... She’s your cow."
Live cattle futures $131.80, last, darn close to a short, $135 would be a nice price to get for your bovines.
As you can see by the extended chart, $135 was indeed a dandy number, for a couple months anyway, following this post.