I'm guessing Mr. Duy didn't wake up this past Sunday and think "I know, let's give that Climateer fellow an indicator that appears to have some forecasting skill!" But that's what he did.
From Tim Duy's Fed Watch:
Inflation Hysteria
It appears that a case of inflation hysteria is gripping Wall Street. Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider sums up the current state of play:Here's the part that really got my attention:
Here's what's on Wall Street's mind right now: Inflation is finally happening, and the Fed will end up being behind the curve.Goodness, you would think it is 1975. It is probably instructive to stop and see what all the fuss is about...MORE
...there were two big moments this week.
1) There was the jump in Core CPI that was the biggest since 2009.
2) And then there was the Janet Yellen press conference, in which she said that the CPI jump could be just "noise" and that the recent drop in the unemployment rate was not actually reflective of the true state of the labor market (which she regards as considerably weaker due to measures of worker discouragement).
In other words, despite data showing that the Fed is getting close to hitting its economic goals, Yellen doesn't believe the numbers.
But Wall Street does believe the numbers.
Hence the view that the Fed will be behind the curve.
...So what is going on here? Inflation is not a sustained phenomenon in the absence of participation from wage dynamics. If inflation accelerates while wage growth remains stagnant, demand will soften and so too will any incipient price pressures. Hence why Yellen sees the potential for downside risk for consumer spending in the absence of stronger wage growth. Moreover, as she notes, wage growth itself is not inflationary. We would expect wage growth should exceed inflation such that real wages grow to account for rising productivity. We might then expect inflation to be correlated with unit labor costs, and it is:
