From the global rice center, Oryza:
The U.S.-based Commodity Weather Group (CWG) and the U.S-based AccuWeather Inc have predicted a weak El Niño pattern in 2014 due to the weakening of the warm pool of water below the surface of the Pacific Ocean leading to significant weakening of trade winds, reports Bloomberg.Here's the referenced Bloomberg story:
CWG predicted a 65% probability for a weak El Niño pattern and a 35% probability for a moderate El Niño pattern; and AccuWeather predicted a 80% chance of a weak El Niño pattern. AccuWeather expects El Niño to set in during July 2014 and last for next six to eight months. The predictions bring some hope of economic damage being lower than expected.
El Niños are caused by periodic rise in the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Most of the weather agencies, including the UN's World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center have predicted more than 65% probability of an El Niño pattern developing in June/July this year.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) released a report on Tuesday saying there is a 70% chance of the El Niño pattern developing in August 2014, and would severely impacting southwest monsoon (June - September) in India and leading to droughts in several parts of Asia, Australia and South America; and floods in North America. The ABM report stated that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been increasing since February and are greater than +0.5 degrees Celsius in most of the eastern hemisphere. It however, stated that the above-average sea surface temperatures have still not extended into the western tropical Pacific, which means El Niño incidence on the western hemisphere is not clear....MORE
El Nino Seen as Probably Weak by Forecasters Damping Impact
