"Natural-Gas Stockpiles at a Low" and "Injection Metrics Required to Refill Storage for an Average Winter"

Our preferred instrument is equity in Exploration & Production companies with long-dated futures being #2. Since January we've been using the First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas ETF (FCG) as our proxy on the blog.
It hit three-year highs on both Thursday and Friday.
We have no call on summer heating degree days, it all depends on how (if) the looming El Niño develops.
From Barron's Commodity Corner:

Higher demand during the summer air-conditioning season, together with supplies depleted by a brutal winter, should boost prices.

Natural-gas prices are due to get more than the usual summertime boost.

That's because the U.S. has a big hole to fill in its stockpiles.

Natural gas is most in demand in summer, when utilities use the gas to generate electricity to meet demand for air conditioning, and in winter, when the gas is burned to heat homes. Last winter brought freezing temperatures to the U.S., and demand for the fuel ran stockpiles down to the lowest level in 11 years. The cold weather also continued for longer, reaching into early May. That has cut into the time producers have had to rebuild stockpiles. April and May are crucial for replenishment; Deutsche Bank says about 47% of the gas added to storage over the summer is done in the second quarter.

Natural-gas investors are betting that stockpiles won't reach adequate levels before next winter, and they're buying gas now in anticipation of even higher prices ahead.

The Energy Information Administration expects 3.424 trillion cubic feet of gas to be in storage by the end of October, down 9.4% from last year. Some analysts say it will be tough to reach that level. "Since the market has already 'lost' six weeks out of this key injection period, any demand or supply adjustment to achieve more rapid injections [of gas into storage]…will need to be correspondingly more heroic," says Michael Hsueh, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a recent note.

ADDITIONS TO GAS IN storage have begun to pick up. Producers recently added 119 billion cubic feet of supplies, the largest weekly increase in five years. But that's unlikely to continue for much longer. Above-average temperatures predicted for late June would increase demand for natural gas and divert supplies away from storage.

"Eventually, summer will arrive, and injections will be unable to continue this torrid pace," says Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates, in a note. "The prospect of possible hot weather and smaller injections are keeping bullish traders interested."...MORE

And from RBN Energy:

Injections Must Exceed the 5 Year Average by 19 Bcf Per Week to Reach 3,400 bcf by Early November 

... Weekly Storage: US working gas storage for the week ending June 6 indicated a build of 107 bcf. Thus total working gas inventories rose to 1,606 bcf. Current inventories fall 741 bcf (31.6%) below last year and 869 bcf (35.1%) behind the 5 year average.
   
·Storage Outlook: This week did establish a new 5 year weekly maximum while it failed to meet either of the comparisons to the 5 year average we use as storage injection metrics. For our storage injection metrics, the 5 year weekly maximum for the upcoming week is 114 bcf.  An injection of 111 bcf is required to equal 131% of the 5 year average and an injection of 104 bcf is needed to exceed the 5 year average by 19 bcf to put inventories on pace to reach 3,400 bcf in early November. If weekly injections match the 5 year weekly maximum injection, inventories will rise to 3,484 bcf in early December. Injections must equal 131% of the 5 year average or exceed the 5 year average by 19 bcf per week to reach 3,400 bcf by early November....MORE

Here's the action since the last storage report on June 12, via FinViz: