Remember, gold bottomed at $1179.40 last Thursday and it wasn't until yesterday that most pundits started predicting an upmove. By that time we were already at $1240.
We, on the other hand, were early, having posted "UPDATED--"Charts Suggest Gold Will Bounce" (GLD)" on the 26th at $1226. It crawled up to $1244 and then dumped to the above-mentioned $1179.40.
Which prompted "Gold Breaks Under $1200" on the 27th. And a visit from Hunter S Thompson.
We've been generally well served by taking the low I.Q. approach to the investing/speculating/flat out gambling spectrum.
In the case of gold over the last year that has translated to watching the series of lower highs dating back to October 2012:
FinViz
We've made mention of it on March 28:
Gold Has Yet To Break the Series of Lower Highs Dating to Last October
$1595.00 last.May 8:
A bit of simple chartology (just the way we like it)...
Gold Miners Still Showing the Direction for Gold: Down (GDX)
Kitco spot just popped up $7.20. $1459.80 last.and June 7:
That does not refute the downtrend hypothesis, in fact an upmove to $1550 would still leave the series of lower highs intact.
(granted some of the ursine among us would be reaching their pain threshold)
With Gold Down $30.00, Is Our Long National Nightmare Over?
Since December we've been of the opinion that gold is going lower, and, even with the early May reaction up-move the series of lower highs, dating back to October 2012 remains unbroken.Prior to that it was operative but I was too chicken to mention it
Gold is going lower. The January 1980 Hong Kong print of $875 may end up being the ultimate bottom.
$1385.60, down $30.20 last.
Feb. 15
Gold Is Approaching a Waterfall Decline
The front futures are trading at $1627.90 down another $7.90.And a half dozen others going back to December 2012.
As can bee seen in the FinViz chart below there has only been one 2 or 3% daily decline since the October double top...
All that being said this is probably the place to caveat with some doggerel:
The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.Or something.
Trading Weeks adds one more wrinkle, the rapidly declining 50-day moving average:
So there you go, our best guess.
Until the bend at the end. Front futures $1245.80 down $9.90. High for today $1267 at 3:30 a.m.
But, Jim Wycoff writing at Kitco points out a bit of resistance at $1275:
See also Friday's "Targeting the Bottom for Gold".
