Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Goldman on the Drop in Commodities

Our guiding principle when Goldman Sachs talks commodities:
Mother: .....And remember, the Lord loves a working man.
Navin: ........Lord loves a working man.
Father: ......And son, don't never, ever trust whitey.
-The Jerk (1979)
Goldman's commodity trading division, J.Aron, is the crown jewel of the whole behemoth.
They will do anything...ANYTHING to protect it and further its purposes.
Current GS CEO Lloyd Blankfein came up on the trading side, J. Aron:
"When Blankfein asked about his title, a boss at J. Aron said, 'You can call yourself contessa if you want.'"
-Fortune, January, 2006
(from a small collection of GS stories, "Goldman Sachs CEO: "We Didn't Realize How Bad Things Would Get" (GS)"...

From FT Alphaville:
Some deep thoughts from Goldman Sachs, by way of Jeffrey Currie and team, on the drivers of the current commodity sell-off (and no, their short gold advice from last week isn’t listed as one of them):
The sharp sell-off in gold was triggered by growing fears that the central bank of Cyprus would sell its gold reserves, potentially reflecting a larger monetization of gold reserves across other European central banks. The decline in prices was exacerbated by the breach of key technical price support level at $1,530/toz and then at the $1,434/toz 200-week moving average, creating the largest one day decline. Spillover from gold and renewed European and EM macroeconomic concerns also created sharp sell-offs in crude oil and base metals, that were mostly front-end driven, crushing spreads (the carry), as longer-dated prices remained remarkably stable. This stopped us out of our CCB (Commodity Carry Basket) recommendation with the potential loss reaching our 6.0% stop....MORE
While GS analysts have quite a bit of latitude you will only rarely see a report released to the public that hasn't been vetted somewhere along the line.