Weekly Natural Gas Storage Survey
And from Dow Jones via NASDAQ:Previewing the Energy Information Administration's 4/11/13 report.
Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.
Energy Metro Desk editors forecast this week: +33 Bcf
Average: +31.8 Bcf
Median: +32 Bcf
Range: -124 to -148 Bcf
Current Storage Level: 1,704 Bcf
Surplus under/over 2012: 794 Bcf (32%)
Surplus under/over 5 Yr Avg: 74 Bcf (4%)
Natural Gas Storage Tealeaves
This week the range is fairly tight, the standard deviation is really low, the categorical ranges are razor thin and the spread between categories is a hair above 1 Bcf. Nothing, but nothing is signaling a surprise this week. But, then again, there have been some rogue reclassifications lately, at very inopportune times. And, lots of folks have been caught short because of it. Last week's 31 Bcf build was about 5 Bcf below the market. The week before that was even more strange, thanks to one enormous outlier that every major survey included (somebody got rich that week). The change-over period we're currently enjoying so much is prone to producing some odd activities around the quad and last year was a bright and shining example. This time last year EIA published a multi-week correction that impacted pricing and forecasting for months to come. Will we see an encore this week? Dunno, but, we can say that TCO has been shuffling around a whole lot of gas lately, that may or may not have caught up with the EIA weekly release. Just saying.
Genscape's Andy Krebs notes his frustration with recent reclassifications in commentary below. He's not the only one. We've heard a lot of grumbling lately of after-the-fact reclassification reporting and posting on the part of several major players. We've seen the EIA's 912 Form. We see that in the open space at the bottom that reporting companies are to comment on any changes in working gas values do to reclassifications. A lot of good that does everybody a week late; deadlines for submitting the 912 is the following Monday at 5:00 p.m. We think that maybe all base gas reclassifications ought to be noticed in relative real-time. That is, if Bob's Storage and Pipeline Company decides to reclassify 4 Bcf of base to working gas on Tuesday, afternoon, we think an alert should go out to the market shortly thereafter. It's not like this would involve an additional or unreasonable reporting burden. We'll ping EIA on the idea later this week. For now, our Consensus stands with the rest of the market at 31.8 Bcf. Our editor is at 33 Bcf. Our range is 19 to 38 Bcf. The Standard Deviation is a mere 3.5. We don't smell a surprise, but, then again, this week tends to be a bit notorious.
Weather Tealeaves
The 6-10 day warming trends for the midcontinent backed down a little this morning due to some additional cool risks showing up in the latter part of the period per the latest round of modeling. There is considerable disagreement on timing and details, but the general consensus trends were cooler today, which may slightly enhance overnight demand in the North. Otherwise, this next cool push would probably work to suppress Southern cooling demand more. The models also show some stronger Western ridging with hotter risks in California by the late 6-10 day (90s Sacramento, upper 80s Burbank). The 11-15 also trended a bit cooler on the latest guidance with near normal late-season demand in the North, but below normal cooling demand in the South providing an offset....MORE
--Gas futures down 0.3% as traders await EIA report
--Dow Jones survey calls for 31-bcf storage increase, below five-year average for the week
--BofA-Merrill sees prices at $3.50/MMBtu this summer
By Jerry A. DiColo
NEW YORK--Natural gas futures slipped lower Thursday ahead of weekly data on U.S. natural-gas stockpiles.
Natural gas for May delivery fell 1.4 cent, or 0.3%, to recently trade at $4.152 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 31 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage last week, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts and traders. If correct, the estimated increase will be smaller than the five-year average increase of 50 bcf for this week.
A smaller-than-average stockpile increase in this week's data would provide another indication that a cold start to spring across most of the U.S. has cut into available fuel supplies.
Inventories as of April 19 are expected to total 1.735 trillion cubic feet, 5.1% below the five-year average for the week.
Still, some analysts and traders are growing concerned that the latest rally, which has pushed gas futures to a 21- month high, is beginning to fade.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a research report Thursday that investors should start betting on falling prices. The bank said it expects futures to fall to $3.50/MMBtu this summer before rebounding later this year as high gas prices prompt power plants to burn cheaper coal instead of gas to generate electricity....MORE
