Watch the Russians.
FT Alphaville delivers Gazprom's belated From Russia With Love Valentine:
The Russian angle
Paul Krugman thinks the Cyprus bailout is all about the Russians.And she follows up with:
As he noted in his New York Times blog:
You can sort of see why they’re doing this: Cyprus is a money haven, especially for the assets of Russian beeznessmen; this means that it has a hugely oversized banking sector (think Iceland) and that a haircut-free bailout would be seen as a bailout, not just of Cyprus, but of Russians of, let’s say, uncertain probity and moral character. (I think it’s interesting that Mohamed El-Erian manages to write about this thing, fairly reasonably, without so much as mentioning the Russian thing.)Of course, if anyone should be acutely aware of the risks of expropriation it is the Russian people. Not only do they have the Soviet precedent to work with, but Russian capitalists (and anyone investing in Russia) have continuously witnessed expropriation events ever since the Russian Federation was formed.
The big problem, however, is that it’s not just large foreign deposits that are taking a haircut; the haircut on small domestic deposits is a bit smaller, but still substantial. It’s as if the Europeans are holding up a neon sign, written in Greek and Italian, saying “time to stage a run on your banks!”
But it’s very different when it’s someone else — specifically another nation — which is expropriating your money. Take the irony of the following statement from Vladimir Putin (by way of Russia Today):
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his opinion that Cyprus’ plan to tax bank deposits is “unfair.” If Cypriot authorities go ahead with the tax plan and levy every deposit placed in the country’s banks, it would be “unfair, unprofessional and dangerous,” Putin said, according to presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.Small wonder then that we’re hearing things like this now:
Russian energy giant Gazprom has offered the Republic of Cyprus a plan in which the company will undertake the restructuring of the country’s banks in exchange for exploration rights for natural gas in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone, local media reported. Representatives of the Russian company submitted the proposal to the office of Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades on Sunday evening, Sigma TV reported.What a beautiful solution for Russian depositors in Cyprus....MORE
The proposal states that Gazprom will fund the restructuring of the country’s crippled financial institutions in exchange for substantial control over the country’s gas resources while Cyprus won’t need to take the harsh bailout package offered by the EU.
More on the Russian angle
Earlier:
Cyprus Bail Out: Welfare for the Russian Oligarchs, Mafiya (the Amounts, Flows and Mechanics of Russian Money Laundering in Cyprus)
Cyprus: Russian Navy to Send Permanent Fleet to Mediterranean (it's the natural gas)