Cyprus: Bear Hug

It's going to be the Russians.
Your humble blogger knew it.* FT Alphaville knew it.**
Sometimes geostrategy is straightforward. You've got Germany trying to play the Grand Strategy game against Russia. Who's got the gas? Who won the last time?
Duh.
From Reuters:
Cyprus seeks Russian bailout aid, EU threatens cutoff

Cyprus pleaded for a new loan from Russia on Wednesday to avert a financial meltdown, but won no immediate relief after the island's parliament rejected the terms of a European bailout, raising the risk of default and a bank crash.

Finance Minister Michael Sarris said in Moscow he had reached no deal with his Russian counterpart Anton Siluanov, but talks would continue.

Russia's finance ministry said Nicosia had sought a further 5 billion euros on top of a five-year extension and lower interest on an existing 2.5 billion euro loan.

Cyprus has to seek Moscow's help after the euro zone's plan for a 10 billion euro bailout was cast into disarray on Tuesday when the island's parliament rebuffed EU demands for a levy on bank deposits to raise 5.8 billion euros.

Moscow has its own interests in ensuring the survival of Cypriot banks, which have served as an offshore financial haven for Russian businesses and individuals.
The European Central Bank's chief negotiator on Cyprus, Joerg Asmussen, said the ECB would have to pull the plug on Cypriot banks unless the country took a bailout quickly....MORE

Russia sees no need to rush into this:
Gazprombank Says Not in Talks on Financial Aid to Cyprus

But even to Gazprom, the 60 Tcf of probable natty is a decent number.
And having a collateralized  bailout is a lot better for the Russian money in Cyprus than having the two largest banks fail.
Duh.

Throw in the fact that Russia may want to replace their naval base at Tartus Syria with something that keeps them in the Eastern Med and you've almost got a lock.

*Cyprus: Russian Navy to Send Permanent Fleet to Mediterranean (it's the natural gas)
Cyprus Bail Out: Welfare for the Russian Oligarchs, Mafiya (the Amounts, Flows and Mechanics of Russian Money Laundering in Cyprus)

**Meanwhile Ms. Kaminska led with "The Russian angle" and followed up with "More on the Russian angle".

So Putin will let Cypriot Finance Minister Michalis Sarris cool his heels as the pressure builds and yuk it up with a little Slavic humor:
Mocking Europe's Energy Policy: "Putin invites Europeans to Siberia for firewood"