Friday, March 15, 2013

Cassandra Likes Gold Miners (XAU; GDX; HUI)

Cassandra's fate was to foresee the future but have no one believe her.
She was also the second most beautiful woman in the world and deranged.
From Cassandra Does Tokyo:

Prospecting 
In a world where formerly hated assets are on fire, gold miners remain hanging from the investment equivalent of the naughty-tree.

Despite the hate mail that routinely stuffs my inbox from the people offended by my occasional mocking views of gold itself, I would highlight that my views on the shiny yellow metal have never been "personal", but are on par with the same healthy skeptical treatment I give to any asset class or investment that has been touted, bought, annointed with deity-like powers, spawning an entire industry of proponents whose opinions, by nature of their conflicted interest, are more than worthless to the would-be investor.

As for the relative investment thesis, Mr Buffett did a fine job of articulating the advantage of attractively-price assets with cash-flow (and growth potential) versus inert but highly conductive lumps of metal dug out of the ground only to be re-buried.  
All of that said, the miners are cheap by any backward, forward or relative measure....MORE 
Here's Cassie after taking the dive into Vancouver- listed Canadian juniors:

Cassandra by Evelyn De Morgan
(1898, London); Cassandra in front 
of the burning city of Troy
at the peak of her insanity

Funny thing about "junior mining companies",
they do no mining.
Stick with quality if you hear the siren song.
Or rig the market.